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The battle for Hormuz could spark the next Iran conflict: Bousso

The Strait of Hormuz is now the main battleground in the Iran conflict. The passage of a few oil and gas tanks in recent days with Tehran's apparent consent, suggests a tacit acceptance of Tehran's control. This signals a dangerous new phase of what is rapidly turning into a Hormuz War. The global energy market has been shook by the near-complete closing of the vital trade artery in Tehran since the joint Israeli and U.S. airstrikes took place on February 28. The sudden loss of 13% of the global oil supply, and a fifth of the liquefied gas flow, has caused a lot of concern, especially in Asia.

According to Kpler data, it was reported that three VLCCs, each carrying around 2,000,000 barrels of Iraqi crude oil bound for Asia, passed through the last week without their tracking systems on. Some indications suggest the transits may have been coordinated with Tehran. Qatar has also sent its first two LNG cargoes after the start of the war. The LNG is being sold to Pakistan - the primary mediator in ?U.S.-Iran negotiations - under a government-to-government deal, according to sources familiar with the matter.They said Iran had approved the shipment to help build confidence with Qatar and Pakistan. Other vessels, such as 'oil tankers', may have also transited the Strait with their transponders turned off in recent weeks. Uncertain is whether these passages were sanctioned or if shipowners paid informal fees to ensure safe passage. Some, however, seemed to have travelled along shipping routes close to Iran's coast.

This trickle of cargoes is a welcome relief for import-dependent countries, but it does not mean that the global energy market is returning to its normal state.

These movements are a fraction of the 140 vessels which crossed the Hormuz every day before the conflict. This means that global markets are still tight and vulnerable. They also point to a new world order. Iran is now dictating not just whether Hormuz will be 'open or closed', but also who can use it. This arrangement could last beyond the current conflict while laying the foundations for the next.

PATTERNS CHANGE

Gulf exporters such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain - whose economies rely on an unhindered hydrocarbon flow - will be concerned by any system where Tehran decides which cargoes are sent to global markets, and at what price.

The buyers will also be uneasy. Asian importers are already suffering from supply disruptions and will resist any framework which gives Tehran direct control over their economic and energy stability. The U.S. will not tolerate any settlement which gives Tehran such political and economic leverage. Donald Trump insisted on a return to the pre-war transit status for any ceasefire. Permitting Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz would undermine Washington's declared war goals and render any claims of victory hollow. Iran will not want to give up its control of the chokepoint and, by extension the global economy. Tehran's strongest weapon is its nuclear program. The U.S. Blockade has reportedly cost the?Iran around $3 billion to date. It will also need revenue from selective transit fees.

STASIS DEVELOPS INTO CONFLICT

The logic leads to a grim conclusion. This selective transit pattern, mediated by Iran, could become a norm that persists even if there is a ceasefire. Tehran may agree that the strait be reopened in exchange for concessions from the United States, but full and unconditional freedom of movement is unlikely.

This?stasis is inherently unstable, and would institutionalise disruption instead of resolving the problem. As all sides test the limits to control the energy flow through the strait, a renewed confrontation between Tehran and Washington and possibly with Gulf states would become more likely.

U.S. military aims have changed repeatedly in recent years. The 'conflict' has been largely centered around one defining question, who controls the Strait of Hormuz. This answer will shape the future Gulf.

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(source: Reuters)