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Plan B: The new summer must-have item for the Iran war

Greg Abbott plans his summer vacation with a half-eye on the Iran War. He is planning to stay close to home, in Europe.

The 54-year old Australian, who lives in Britain, is planning to go on a cycling tour with his friends in Austria. He also plans to attend a music festival in Barcelona as well as a possible yoga retreat in France. But he is not looking to travel too far.

"We will almost certainly do short-haul Europe and almost certainly use trains because they are powered by electricity," said Abbott. The head of operations at a broadcasting firm added that cost was the main factor in deciding whether to take longer trips.

The prices are crazy right now.

In Europe and beyond, travelers are changing their plans due to the high cost of jet fuel, the tight supply, and Middle East conflicts that disrupt popular routes. Many people are booking later to allow for flexibility.

Susanne Dickhardt is the co-founder of Roadsurfer, which rents motorhomes and campervans.

She said that most people are choosing to adapt rather than cancel, and they do this by staying closer to home, driving, and selecting formats which keep costs low.

'PEOPLE GET NERVOUS'

The tourism and aviation sectors are the most vulnerable to war. Slow-moving talks indicate a prolonged standoff that will affect Gulf Airlines and popular hubs like Dubai while almost doubling jet fuel costs.

"You have a war going on - a major 'war,'" said Jean-Francois Rial CEO of Voyageurs du Monde. He added that his company had seen its business fall by around a quarter during March and then ease to a 10% drop in April.

People get nervous and don't want travel anymore.

Airlines warn that profits are under pressure. Air France-KLM's jet fuel bill is expected to increase by $2.4 billion in this year. Lufthansa, British Airways and IAG expect increases of around $2 billion.

Spirit, the U.S.'s low-cost carrier, went bankrupt this month. This stoked fears that others could follow. Wizz Air, airBaltic and other European budget carriers that have thin margins, limited fuel hedging and are vulnerable to Spirit face similar challenges.

He said that "summer is the most lucrative period for airlines and any disruption in volumes or costs will have an impact on earnings".

Last-Minute Bookings

Delay in making decisions is a common practice among travelers. Jerome Vayr of France's Vacances Bleues said that plans are often made a few days in advance and trips are shorter.

He said that last-minute bookings were up by 15%. "I believe people are waiting to find out what inflation will do, and whether they'll be able travel abroad."

Airlines and officials claim that demand is resilient overall, but the destinations are changing, with domestic travel on the rise.

Ricardo Fernandez Flores is the head of Spanish online travel company Destinia. He said that Spain, Greece, and Portugal are considered safer choices, with more holiday self-drives.

The data shows that travellers are shifting their destinations, not slowing down. Jay Wardle is the president of travel data group Sojern. He highlighted well-connected and stable Mediterranean markets.

Gabriel Escarrer is the CEO of Spain's largest hotel group Melia. He expects strong bookings to be made in "safe haven" areas.

He said that Spain and the Caribbean were far enough away from conflict zones, and close enough to important source markets, to provide a safe haven this summer.

WAITING FOR "THINGS" TO 'CLEAR-UP'

Rail is on the rise. Alvaro Ungurean of Trainpal reported that Eurostar ticket sales have increased by 25%, and nearly twice as many Britons are looking to travel in France by train this year.

Charlie Sultan, SAP's president of Concur Travel, stated that even business trips are changing, as rail bookings have increased.

Alice Woodhouse from Hong Kong plans to stay and offset the rising fares.

"Ticket prices are so high that I have been looking at how I can use my air miles." She said that Southeast Asia, or perhaps Taiwan, is the most likely.

Some are delaying booking. Diego Dutra from Portugal who runs a relocation company is not flying to visit family in Italy and instead may choose a road trip.

He said, "We will just postpone the meeting until things have settled down a little bit."

(source: Reuters)