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Sources say that Russia will increase its exports in August to Asia due to the strong demand.
Two traders say that oil shipments from Russia’s western ports will increase by 4% this August, compared to July, as drones attack domestic refineries, allowing more crude to be exported. Meanwhile, a strong demand in Asia is encouraging sellers to ship more. According to preliminary data collected by traders, exports from the Baltic port of Primorsk along with the Black Sea Port of Novorossiysk are expected to reach around 2.7 million barrels a day in August. The Ukraine's attack on Russia's refining facilities has meant that less oil can now be processed, and it must be exported. The traders say that the port loadings are expected to be close to capacity. However, ongoing strikes and a lack of tonnage for exports may limit the volumes. The Russian oil exports to western ports fell in July by 2.6 million barrels per day as Ukrainian attacks on the Black Sea disrupted loadings at Novorossiysk. The high demand for Russian crude oil in Asia, due to the ongoing unrest and disruptions in the Middle East that have disrupted the Strait of Hormuz has kept prices for Russia's flagship Urals Crude firm. Reports indicate that the differential between Brent and Urals crude for India delivery in 'late August or September has firmed up to a minus $2 to $3 barrel at delivery. Due to Middle East oil supply disruptions, Chinese refiners also have?turned to Russian oil?. Two major Chinese refiners purchased the majority of Russian ESPO blend for September-loading at a smaller discount.
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Sources say that freight rates for Russia's Urals will increase sharply in August due to increased security risks
The freight rates for Russia’s flagship Urals oil shipments from western ports to India jumped by a little over 50% since mid-July, as rising shipping costs globally and increased security risks in the “Black Sea” discourage shipowners. Russia will increase its oil exports in August due to strong demand in Asia. However, a lack of tonnage may put a stop to its plans. In July, Ukraine intensified its?attacks against tankers in Black Sea. This resulted in damage to several vessels and forced the suspension of loading at Novorossiysk as well as the Caspian pipeline consortium terminal. The increased'security risk' in the Black Sea is causing many shipowners to avoid this region, making it more difficult to secure their vessels and delaying their cargoes. One trader stated that it appeared many shipowners were pulling out of Russian port because the risk was too high. According to traders, the cost of transporting a cargo weighing 100,000 metric ton from Primorsk, Russia to India, has increased to $13 million, up from $8 to $9 million at mid-July. The 'freight rates' for Suezmax tankers transporting 140,000-ton Urals from the Black Sea Port of Novorossiysk, to India have increased from $10 million to $15 million. According to 'calculations, the increase in freight costs may reduce Russia's oil revenue by $5 per barrel or more. Russia's oil exports from western ports fell in July compared to June as the Black Sea was disrupted by repeated Ukrainian attacks. (Reporting and Editing by Sharon Singleton).
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US warns that some Ford SUVs and cars older than 10 years pose unreasonable safety hazards
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said that certain 'older Ford SUVs and cars pose unreasonable safety risk because their timing belts may fail, causing them to 'lose power' or have engines seize. The U.S. Auto Safety regulator upgraded an investigation of defects in about 135,000 Ford Fiestas, Ford Focuses and Ford EcoSports with 1.0L engine models from different model years between 2014-2021. NHTSA reported 355 incidents where a low oil pressure warning appeared just before the driver lost or reduced their driving power. Ford has not yet commented on the discontinuation of all three models. NHTSA's initial investigation found that timing belt materials may degrade, creating debris which clogs the mesh screen of oil pumps. This results in reduced engine oil pressure. NHTSA said that the investigation found failures could occur without adequate warning of imminent engine seizure or loss of power. Failures also occurred despite routine oil maintenance and proper oil management. NHTSA stated that "based on NHTSA’s analysis of the data, failure rates and information provided by Ford as well as preliminary engine teardown analyses, prior recalls regarding engine oil pressure loss with driver facing warnings (the agency believes) there is an unreasonable danger to motor vehicle safety." The NHTSA must upgrade the investigation to an engineering analysis before it can?compel Ford to recall its vehicles. The oil pressure light was illuminated by a driver in Wilmington, Delaware. Within 1/8th mile the 2017 Ford Focus "lost power" and began to sound like an old tank. Some drivers have reported that engine failures cost thousands of dollars to repair. NHTSA stated that the data showed an average failure mile of approximately 70,000 and that 98% occurred before the suggested 150,000-mile timing belt replacement. Ford informed NHTSA in?June that it would be adopting a customer satisfaction program aimed at reducing the maintenance interval for vehicles equipped with a Fox Classic Timing Belt 1.0L to 100,000 miles or six years. Ford will reimburse eligible customers that paid for engine repair or replacement because of a timing-belt issue. The customer satisfaction program does not specify which U.S. models are covered. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith; David Shepardson)
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Ship-tracking data reveals that six Saudi oil tankers have turned away from the Gulf of Aden.
Six supertankers flying the Saudi flag have altered course in recent days in 'the Gulf of Aden,' and are now heading south to afria. This is in response to 'threats made by Yemen Houthi to target Saudi shipping. According to AIS tracking on LSEG/MarineTraffic, the tankers were in formation, heading towards southern Africa after having returned from Asia with no cargo. They did not transit the southern Red Sea through the Bab el-Mandeb 'chokepoint. Ship tracking revealed that one of the tankers, "Dilam", had Gibraltar on its itinerary. Bahri, the Saudi vessel's operator, and other Saudi officials have not responded to requests for comment. Two trade sources, who based their assessment on the security situation said that the tankers, which each can carry up to two million barrels crude oil, chose to reroute via Cape Town. If they choose to return to Saudi ports on the Red Sea via a crossing of 'Suez, their 'journeys would add an additional 25 days to their sailing time. calculations. On July 20, the Iran-aligned Houthis declared a naval embargo against Saudi Arabia. This opened a new front in the Iran War against the U.S. and its allies. Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked ships in recent days prompted London's Marine Insurance?market to last week?extend its "high risk zone" in the Red Sea to include waters near more Saudi Arabian port. (Reporting and editing by David Gooding, Barbara Lewis, and Jonathan Saul)
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What has been attacked by Ukraine in its attacks on Russian energy sites?
Ukraine's forces have struck Russia's energy infrastructure, which Kyiv claims is an attempt to deny Russia resources for funding its military. Here is a list of recent attacks and their impact, starting with the most recent: SARATOV On August 2, the Ukrainian military attacked Rosneft's Saratov oil refining plant in southwest Russia. Two sources claim that the Saratov oil refining plant in Russia stopped oil processing July 9 due to damage caused by a drone attack. The plant will process 5.8 million tons of oil in 2024. VOLGOGRAD On July 31, a drone attack in the southern Volgograd region of Russia set ablaze a?energy?facility? and warehouses, injuring at least five people, according to the regional 'governor?, Andrei Bocharov. He did not provide any further details on the damages. The Lukoil refinery will process 13.5 million tonnes of oil in 2024. RYAZAN Russia’s Ryazan refinery - one of the largest in the country - halted crude processing on July 29, following a drone strike, and two industry sources said that it could close for up to two weeks. The refinery will process 13.1 million tonnes of crude oil by 2024. Two industry sources confirmed that a Ukrainian drone attack at Lukoil’s Perm refinery caused an fire which damaged one of the crude distillation units. By 2024, it is expected that the refinery will process approximately 12.6 million tonnes of oil. TYUMEN On July 25, Russian authorities reported that a Ukrainian drone struck the Tyumen refinery, located in western Siberia. The fire was extinguished later. Sources said that the refinery stopped operations following the attack. The plant processes approximately 6 million tonnes of crude oil per year. YAROSLAVL On July 27, Ukrainian forces attacked Russian 'oil facilities in Yaroslavl (about 250 km northeast of Moscow), according to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The refinery at Yaroslavl can process 15 million tonnes per annum. Industry sources confirmed that the Salavat complex in Bashkortostan's Urals region halted its operations on July 14th following an attack by a Ukrainian drone. AFIPSKY A fire has broken out at the Afipsky refinery, in southern Krasnodar Region of Russia. The cause was drone debris that fell from the sky. The refinery is capable of processing over 9 million tons of oil each year. SYZRAN According to industry sources, the Russian Syzran oil refining plant on the Volga River in the Samara Region halted its operations on July 12 after a drone strike damaged a primary unit. On May 21, Ukrainian drones also?attacked the Rosneft owned refinery. The refinery stopped operations after the attack damaged a primary unit. The refinery had suspended operations after the attacks of April 18. The refinery can process 8.5 million tonnes per annum. ILSKY On July 10, local officials reported that a drone had attacked the Ilsky oil refinery, located in southern Krasnodar. The design capacity of the refinery is more than 6 million metric tonnes of oil per annum. OMSK On July 6, Ukrainian drones attacked the Omsk refinery, causing a large fire. The Russian air defences destroyed the majority of drones, said Vitaly Khotsenko, Governor. The extent of the damage to the refinery was not immediately known. The design capacity of Omsk's oil refinery is about 22 million metric tonnes of oil per annum. NORSI Ukrainian drones struck NORSI, Russia’s fourth largest oil refinery owned by Lukoil for the second time on 2 July and, according to sources,?crude production was suspended. The attack damaged CDU-6 which can process 25700 metric tonnes per day. This is 53% of refinery capacity. NORSI is the second largest producer of gasoline in Russia. It can process up to 16 million metric tonnes of oil each year. UFA Ukraine forces attacked an oil refinery?for the second time on 1 July in the city Ufa near the Ural Mountains. The refinery is capable of processing more than 7,000,000 tons of oil each year. Sources claim that the MOSCOW oil refinery in Moscow has halted its operations following a drone attack by Ukraine on 16 June. On June 18, a second attack caused damage to processing units as well as multiple fires. The Kapotnya district in the south-east of the capital has a capacity of 11 million tons per year. Ports/oil facilities The Caspian Pipeline Consortium stopped receiving oil on July 20, following attacks against oil tankers at their Black Sea terminal. Chevron CVX.N CEO said last Friday that the CPC pipeline flowed and ships were loading. Kyiv’s security service reported on July 25, that Ukrainian drones had struck the Filanovsky platform owned by Russia's Lukoil LKOH.MM, in the Caspian Sea. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the President of Ukraine, said that Ukraine had struck two Russian oil storage depots located in Tver and Stavropol, which are both approximately 500 km away from the frontline. On July 8, Ukrainian drones struck the Krasnodarskaya 'pumping station', which is part of the natural-gas supply chain to Turkey via Blue Stream pipe. However, gas supplies were unaffected. Kyiv reported on July 8 that Ukrainian drones had struck an oil pumping facility in Russia's Bashkortostan Region, which is more than 1,500km from the border. Authorities said that Ukrainian drone attacks in Sevastopol (home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet) and Vysotsk, both Baltic Sea ports, caused damage on July 6. Authorities said that a drone strike caused a fire to break out in a loading complex at the Black Sea port city of Novorossiysk. (Reporting and Editing by Ros Russel)
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Source: Kazakhstan's oil-and-gas condensate production fell by 14% from June to July
A source familiar with the operational data said that Kazakhstan's crude oil and gas condensate?production?fell from 2,16 million barrels per days in June to?about 1,85 million barrels a day or 7,6 million metric tonnes in July 2026. Sources said that the decline in oil exports was due to disruptions on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), the main route of export for Kazakh crude. Kazakhstan's oil output is heavily dependent on the CPC. It has no other real options to export the vast majority of its oil output elsewhere. Last month, oil exports via CPC were interrupted several times. Loadings at one stage faced a?one-week suspension because of ongoing drone strikes which damaged vessels near the port. OIL IS CURRENTLY FLOWING THROUGH THE CPC PIPELINE Chevron's CEO, who controls the operator of Tengiz Oil Field in Kazakhstan and is the owner of the CPC pipeline, stated on a Friday earnings call that the CPC pipeline was currently flowing, and ships were loading this week. Over 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports pass through the CPC pipeline system. The majority of these volumes come from the Tengiz and Kashagan fields. According to the source daily oil production in Tengiz dropped 18% from June. Production at Kashagan fell 25%, and Karachaganak's output decreased 18%. Source: Tengiz's production stood at 454,000 bpd as of July 31 compared to an average of 961,000 in June. Tengizchevroil is the operator of Tengiz and does not comment on specifics of its production. The Kazakh Energy Minister and the operators of Kashagan & Karachaganak didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. Kazakhstan plans to produce around 95 million tons of crude oil by 2026. However, incidents at major oilfields as well as export restrictions have made it difficult to achieve this target. (Reporting and Editing by Jan Harvey).
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The nascent German economic recovery is threatened by low Rhine water levels
Analysts warned on Monday that the Rhine's record low water levels could halt German growth and drag Europe's largest economy back into stagnation, just as it was showing signs of a much-anticipated recovery. Germany and much of Europe have experienced successive heatwaves with little rain this summer. This has led to low water levels in waterways such as the Rhine. The Rhine is an important shipping route, especially for grains, minerals, refined oil products, and coal. The shallow water makes it difficult for cargo ships to carry more than 20% of their load. This forces them to ship multiple shipments, which is costly and unwelcome. Data released last week showed that the German Gross Domestic Product grew faster than anticipated in the second quarter. The low water levels could reduce the third quarter GDP growth by 0.1% to 0.2% according to economist Stefan Kooths, of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. He warned that they would not quickly return above the critical threshold. He said that the low water levels would continue to affect transport capacity for some time in the next month. THE DROUGHT IS WORSENING A LONG-TERM TREND OF WATER LOSS According to the Environment Ministry, the lack of rain this summer has exacerbated a trend that has been in place for 25 years. Germany has lost 60 billion cubic meters of water due to climate changes. Carsten Schneider, the German Environment Minister, warned that if nothing is done, water shortages could cost Germany EUR625billion ($714billion) by 2050 or EUR25billion annually. Carsten Brzeski is global head of macro - at ING. He said that the warm, dry weather of summer has caused water levels to drop to a record low in major transportation waterways. This could have an impact on industrial supply chains as well as activity in construction. According to data released by Germany's Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration on Monday, the water level at the Rhine river chokepoint in Kaub will fall to a new record low of 18.09 cm (7.09 inches) this Friday. Marc Schattenberg, an economist with Deutsche Bank Research, stated that the economic impact of this situation will be determined by 'how long transport costs remain high and whether there are extended shipping disruptions at places like Kaub. Thyssenkrupp Steel had already suspended the shipping of raw material to Duisburg, a western city in Germany, with its own vessels last month. The German chemical company BASF stated on Monday that while they have maintained waterway transport 'to date', isolated supply bottlenecks could occur if 'current weather conditions continue. The German economy is already very fragile, and if the drought persists, it will put even more strain on the German one, said Dirk Binding. He was an expert with the German chamber of commerce, DIHK. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier, Anastasiia Kozolova, Rene Wagner, Michael Hogan; additional reporting by Maria Martinez).
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WestJet Flight Attendants end their strike after tentative wage agreement
The union that represents?flight attendants for Canada's WestJet has reached a tentative?deal on Monday with the second largest carrier in the country, ending a striking which led to hundreds of cancelled flights during the busy summer travel season. The Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE), which represents 4,400 flight crew members at the carrier, wanted to pay them from the moment they check-in until the moment they clock out, rather than just for the time their aircraft is in motion. WestJet has not disclosed details about 'the tentative agreement', which will be presented to the cabin crew for a vote of ratification. The union stated that it would be sharing details of the contract with its members before the vote. This tentative agreement represents a significant progress. The agreement evolves the "flight credit" system, by recognising more of the cabin crew's work and increasing compensation for it, Alia Hussain said. After talks broke down, the flight attendants of this airline, with a 30% domestic market share, went on strike Sunday. This labour unrest followed on from a four-day flight attendant strike at Air Canada, which stranded 500,000 passengers last August. This is also the latest attempt by flight attendants in the U.S., Canada and other countries to challenge compensation structures that pay cabin crew primarily when the aircraft is in motion. Cirium, an aviation analytics company, reports that WestJet has cancelled 615 flights since August 4. Onex Corp., the majority owner of the company, offered to increase wages by 13% this year, followed by 2.5% increases every year until 2029. It also offered extra pay for all the hours worked, which is equivalent to another 12 percent salary increase. WestJet announced on Sunday that around 250,000 passengers had their flights "cancelled" during a three-day long holiday weekend in Canada. In a press release, the airline said that it would "share further details about the return of operations" as soon as they became available. WestJet has a fleet size of 200 aircraft. The majority are Boeing 737 single aisle jets. (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala in Bengaluru, Nandan Mandayam)
India increases windfall tax on diesel and petrol
According to a government directive, India raised the windfall tax on fuel exports to boost the state's coffers and ensure a sufficient supply of fuel for the domestic market. This is to help stabilize prices in light of the Middle East conflict. The government announced that the export duty for petrol was increased from 2.5 rupees to 3.5 rupees (US $0.0367) per litre, effective immediately.
Total duty on diesel exports was raised from 15.5 to 25.5 rupies per litre by combining two levies.
From Monday, the tax on aviation fuel has increased to 22 rupees per litre from 14.5 rupees. India first introduced the windfall tax to capture extraordinary gains due to soaring oil price. In 2022, India collected 250 billion rupees (2.62 billion dollars) from this tax. The total collection dropped to 130 billion rupees in 2023-24. The tax was abolished in December 2024 but reinstated in March 2026, after oil prices soared during the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. Since the last tax revision two weeks ago, oil?prices are volatile. The price of oil fell by more than 5% on monday after U.S. president Donald Trump decided to delay a new?attack against Iran, hoping for a quick agreement.
(source: Reuters)