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Farnborough Airshow shifts focus to weapons and wars from jets

As security threats spiral, defence is expected to be at the forefront of Britain's Farnborough Airshow. Aerospace and arms makers are struggling to keep up with demand for weapons and cement a fragile recovery in civil jet and engine production.

The Ukraine war is in its fifth year, and the Gulf ceasefire has been shattered. These risks are likely to push the annual competition between Boeing and Airbus over commercial jet orders in the July 20-24 trade show down the pecking-order.

Air Chief Marshall Harv Smyth of the Royal Air Force told the International Air Chiefs Conference before the show that the global security environment was more volatile and complex than it had been in decades. We are also witnessing security threats evolving at an alarming rate.

The biggest increase in European defence expenditure since the Cold War is witnessed by weapons makers at their biennial trade show, but there are still unanswered questions regarding where and how the money will be spent.

Industry leaders say that drones and AI-powered software targeting systems could disrupt the defence industry, much like SpaceX did with the launch business. The wars in Ukraine and Iran have exposed the need for mass-produced and faster-developed systems.

Tom Enders is the president of German Council on Foreign Relations, and also co-chair of German defence startup Helsing.

"They spend their money." The procurement agencies and the armed forces are increasingly aware that this is the best way to create a dynamic, fast-moving sector," said Enders. He was the former CEO of Airbus who now chairs the tank manufacturer KNDS.

While new budgeted funding will be spent on today's warplanes such as the Lockheed Martin F-35 or the Eurofighter, both of which are performing displays next year, startups like Helsing in the U.S. and Anduril in the U.K. are pushing AI-driven system like uncrewed pilot cohorts despite initial setbacks.

Capital Alpha's managing partner, Byron Callan said that "values are tilting towards defence entrants" but most militaries still spend a large amount of resources on manned platform.

The organizers said that defence companies will make up half of the 1,600 exhibitors, a record number, compared to 40% in the past. AI, deep tech and finance companies have also seen a significant increase.

COMMERCIAL JET SALES, SUPPLY CHAINS

Airbus and Boeing will announce commercially new orders, and reveal the customers behind previous deals.

The usual flurry announcements will likely attract less attention, as investors are more focused on aircraft deliveries where manufacturers make the most profits.

Although air shows are still capable of delivering surprises, industry sources say that the total number of aircraft sold may not exceed 300, which is well below pre-show predictions as high as 800. This could include already announced deals.

"Winning orders" is not the issue. The Lundquist Group's managing director Jerrold Lundquist said that production capacity constraints have changed the way it is measured.

Since COVID-19 Aerospace has been struggling with supply issues, particularly for parts such as castings and forgings. These are critical components made to exacting standards using molten metal or solid metal.

Airbus's goal to increase single-aisle jet production by 25%, to 75 per month by 2027 has been repeatedly postponed. Boeing has announced that it will study?production levels above current targets in order to close the gap with its rival, and maintain a stable market share.

Kevin Michaels of AeroDynamic?Advisory, a manufacturing expert and managing director, said that the supply chain has improved compared to a year ago. However it is still not at a point where Airbus will be able to achieve its 75-plane goal.

He added: "And as Boeing increases rates, it will surely cause issues there as well." The aviation industry has been plagued by delays in engine deliveries, which frustrate aircraft manufacturers and airlines.

GE Aerospace said that conditions are improving, but there is still more work to be done.

Larry Culp, CEO of GE Aerospace, said: "I think that the supply chain is really turning the corner." "There's more work to be done." (Reporting and editing by Joe Brock, Jamie Freed, and Jamie Freed; Additional reporting and editing by Dan Catchpole; Additional reporting and editing by Allison Lampert; Shivansh Tiwary, David Shepardson, and Allison Lampert; Reporting and Editing by Tim Hepher and Cassell Byran Low; Editing and rewriting by Joe Brock, Jamie Freed, and Jamie Freed).

(source: Reuters)