Latest News

China's oil exports plummeted during the Iran War. How much will the recover?

China imported 11.5 million barrels per day on average in the past five years. Since April, the average has been just 8 million barrels per day. China's rapid slashing of imports - shipments dropped to 40% below pre-Iran War levels in June - has helped keep a lid on global prices, and has freed up cargoes that could be used by other countries.

Market observers want to know if the decline in demand will last.

Michal Meidan is the head of China Energy Research for the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. "There is a huge level of uncertainty, because we do not fully understand what happened."

This uncertainty is due to the fact that China is not transparent: its oil companies have opaque data and the size of their stockpiles is a secret.

Analysts predict that China's oil demand could drop by up to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) after the war, a dramatic decline for a nation that has driven global oil consumption for decades.

Consider the following factors:

WHY CHINESE FUEL DESIRE? The war revealed that the Chinese transport system can run on less fuel, than was thought possible. This has major implications for crude oil imports as roughly half of them are refined into transportation fuels. It's not clear whether the war will significantly accelerate electric car sales. Especially since petrol prices are now back at pre-war levels, after having risen by over a quarter. In June, electric and hybrid vehicles accounted for a record-breaking 62% of all new car sales. A weak Chinese economy and the slow electrification rate of an 87% petrol-powered fleet have led to hundreds of thousands of cars being sold less this year. The war is likely to accelerate the decline of diesel after the government announced a plan to electrify trucks in June, with the aim to have some popular short-haul routes electrified by 2030.

Rystad, a consultancy, expects Chinese consumption of gasoline and diesel to fall 6.6% and 6.9% respectively, as opposed to their previous forecasts which were 3.5% and 3 % before the war.

Ye Lin, a Rystad analyst, says that the crisis has been a catalyst. It helped consumers gain a greater confidence in electric vehicles and trucks.

WHERE IS THE INDUSTRIAL DEMAND GOING? Meidan, from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, warns that if the Iran War slows China’s growth at home or on its export markets further, this will pose a risk to the country’s oil demand. China's construction industry has been hit by the property crisis, which has impacted diesel demand over several years. Property prices continue to fall. A structurally weaker economic system could also affect demand for plastics and petrochemicals. This would hurt refiners as well as reduce oil consumption.

Meidan stated that we don't think enough about the bigger economic picture. "That's a big question, and it will have an impact on Chinese oil demand as well as industrial activity."

What role does stockpiling play?

Crude imports increased due to Beijing's campaign of reserve building last year. This was done in order for China to be able absorb the shock of a closed Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts say that the stockpiling of China's reserves has ceased since the end of the war. However, it is difficult to determine when and how much China will resume building its reserves due to the uncertainty surrounding Beijing's goals and the size. Beijing does not disclose its reserve targets or how much it stores. Last year, it was reported that China had been building new storage tanks. Premier Li Qiang demanded even more capacity during a visit in?May to a reserve.

According to June Goh senior analyst of Sparta Commodities, "despite the demand destruction, China will still import crude oil in incremental quantities to fill its strategic reserves."

Goh believes that a stockpiling drive could bring them back up to the 9.5 to 11 million bpd range.

Brent crude traded between $58-$83 per barrel during China's massive stockpiling last year, as opposed to the current price of around $85. Analysts believe it may resume if prices drop below $70.

Will the Fuel Export Valve revive oil demand?

Analysts say that, whatever the new "normal", it will require certainty regarding the Gulf's supply and the lifting of Beijing's restrictions on fuel exports during wartime. Chinese refiners are less likely to increase production if they don't have exports to absorb excess gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. Beijing may impose these restrictions again in August, now that the Gulf war has resumed. Exports can also determine the final destination of China's crude oil imports in the long term. Refineries could need to import more oil if overseas sales absorb excess fuels and petrochemicals. China closely manages fuel shipments through a fuel export system. (Reporting and editing by Lewis Jackson in Beijing, Sam Li)

(source: Reuters)