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Maguire: The boom in renewable energy in Europe is causing a fall-off of gas demand.
In recent years, the question that has defined Europe's energy history is whether it has enough gas. This question is becoming outdated. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, traders, policymakers and utilities became focused on storage levels, LNG cargo arrivals, and winter weather forecasts. Gas inventories were the main measure of Europe's security in terms of energy. A new trend is emerging in Europe's power system, which suggests that Europe may be increasingly asking the wrong question. It is not a question of whether Europe has enough gas. It is not a question of whether Europe needs as much gas now as it did in the past. The combined electricity generated by Europe's solar and wind farms will surpass the output of gas-fired plants in 2026 for the first time ever. This may seem like another milestone in the clean energy industry. It could be a sign of a major structural change in the European gas market. RENEWABLES ARE NOW THE CENTRE OF ATTENTION Gas used to generate more electricity than the combined output of Europe's wind- and solar-powered fleet. Data from the energy think tank Ember show that in 2016, solar and wind combined monthly output generally hovered around 30 to 45 terawatt-hours (TWh), whereas gas-fired production often exceeded 100TWh. Today, the gap is gone. Solar and wind combined output has increased to 80-110 Terawatt Hours per month, while gas-fired power generation has been steadily losing ground. Renewable generation has matched or even exceeded gas output in many areas of 2025 and beyond. This is not just the result of good weather. Over the last quarter-century, Europe's gas-fired power generation capacity has only grown modestly from 250 gigawatts up to 400 GW. Over the same time period, wind and solar capacity has risen from 20 GW up to almost 750 GW. In Europe, wind and solar power is now installed at nearly double the rate of gas-fired power. That distinction matters. Weather can explain temporary shifts in generation. The changes in the footprints of generation fleets drive structural shifts. Europe has been steadily building a power system based on renewable resources, rather than fossil fuels, for the past two decades. After a sufficient amount of renewable capacity has been?installed?, the decline in fossil generation is no longer a policy goal but a?mathematical consequence. The data suggests that Europe has crossed this threshold. Fewer months of gas burning Even more interesting are seasonal generation statistics. Gas has historically been the mainstay of Europe's energy system. Demand peaks in winter, but falls in spring and summer. Now wind and solar are increasingly dominating the April-through-October period. By 2026, the renewable energy sector will have reached new highs and coal and gas production will be at multi-year lows. As renewables provide a greater share of electricity, the traditional gas-burning season is getting shorter. This could be a game changer for the gas market. Each month, the use of renewable energy reduces gas demand and lowers imports of gas. The?HIDDEN STOCKAGE STORY Gas inventories may have the most significant impact. Storage has been a crucial insurance policy in Europe since 2022 against disruptions of supply and seasonal demand spikes. If the power sector gas demand continues to shrink, Europe might not need as much gas in storage during summer or as little gas withdrawn during winter. Storage will remain important during periods of cold weather and low renewable energy output. As wind and solar power continue to replace gas, the continent may also need less gas. The debate is now "How much gas does Europe actually need?" instead of "Does Europe currently have enough gas?" This?changes the debate from "Does Europe have enough gas?" BRIDGE FUEL NOT MORE? The trend is reinforced by the broader historical context. Natural gas replaced coal as the main fuel in Europe's energy sector from the 1990s. Renewables now pose a similar threat to gas. Policymakers have described gas for years as a fuel that bridges the gap between coal and renewable energy. The power system in Europe is increasingly looking like it's approaching the other side of this bridge. Europe does not just produce cleaner electricity with each new wind farm or solar park. It is steadily decreasing the amount of natural gas that it must import, store and burn. For a continent who spent years worrying about whether they would have enough fuel to make it through the winter, the ability to use less gas in the first instance may be the most significant energy development. These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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India's HPCL purchases 4 million barrels Middle Eastern crude oil, traders claim
Multiple trade sources confirmed that 'Indian state-run refiner Hindustan Petroleum Corp. bought 4 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude in a spot auction on Thursday. They said that the refiner bought 2 million?barrels? of Murban crude? from BP and another?1million barrels? of Murban?from PetroChina, as well as 1 million barrels?of Oman crude?from Trafigura. Both grades are?loaded from outside of the Strait of Hormuz. Two of the people said that Murban's delivered price was $7 per barrel higher than Brent's contract date, and Oman's delivered price was $4 to $5 per barrel. Arrival of the oil is expected to be around October 1. The 'companies usually do not comment on commercial transactions. Reporting by Siyi Liu in Singapore, 'Nidhi verma' in New Delhi and Seher Dareen from London. Editing by Jamie Freed.
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The oil price has fallen as a weaker outlook for demand in the Middle East counters supply concerns
Oil prices eased Thursday, after a week of gains, as the focus shifted to the 'expected' lowering of global oil demand in this year. Meanwhile, there were no signs of progress towards opening up of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures fell 42 cents or 0.47% to $88.56 per barrel at 0405 GMT. U.S., erasing gains over the six previous sessions. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), which had been rising over the previous five sessions, fell by 55 cents or 0.66% to $82.72. On?Wednesday, a senior Iranian source stated that there was no progress made in the talks to revive a June interim agreement and to define a timeline for its implementation. In a Thursday note,?ING analysts said that there were few new developments between the U.S. The latest large drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk Port appears to have spared the oil infrastructure. There are no reports yet of damage to oil terminals. After the price spikes of the last week were not reversed, attention turned towards the outlook for demand. This was due to a surprising build-up in U.S. crude stockpiles and lower consumption estimates from OPEC. Data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil commercial inventories had their biggest weekly increase since January 2023, as exports fell. The EIA reported that crude inventories increased by 17.4 millions barrels, to 424.4million barrels during the week ending?August 7; this was their highest level since June 5. This is in contrast with the expectations of analysts in a poll who expected a draw of 1.4 million barrels. In its monthly report on the oil market, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2026 from 1.1 million barrels to 588,000 barrels. The International Energy Agency also said that it expected a 1.6m bpd reduction in consumption for this year. This is down from a previous forecast of?1m bpd, as higher prices and limited supply - due to the U.S./Israeli war against Iran - have curtailed demand. Prices have remained stable despite the deadlock in talks between Iran, the U.S. and other countries to end the Gulf War. Analysts at Haitong Futures wrote in a report that the safety situation in these waters had deteriorated further, forcing ships to turn off their signals. This reduces transparency and makes it harder for the market and shipping companies to track and estimate actual supply levels. (Reporting from Sam Li in Beijing, Siyi Liu and SonaliPaul in Singapore. Editing by Christian Schmollinger & SonaliPaul)
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Wall Street Journal, August 13,
These are the most popular?stories from the Wall Street Journal. These?stories have not been verified and we cannot?guarantee?their accuracy. Apple is negotiating new deals with publishers in order to use their content for delivering current news and information as part of its effort to improve Siri, the voice assistant powered by AI. Federal aviation officials plan to relocate air-traffic-control antennas and implement new procedures in order to prevent a repeat of the?safety accident with Marine One last week near a busy Washington D.C. airport. As part of discussions on reworking the U.S., Mexico-Canada Agreement, the Mexican government has pushed the U.S. for a lower tariff rate on North American cars. - ?Alphabet's top scientist, Demis Hassabis, held discussions with government officials and leaders ?of other artificial-intelligence labs about forming a ?new independent industry ?safety entity in the weeks before he relinquished his role as ?chief executive of Google ?DeepMind. The Swedish startup Lovable raised new funds with a valuation of $13.3 billion, which highlights the?enthusiasm? for tools that allow users to code their own vibes. Ted Decker, the Home Depot CEO will be taking a medical leave. (Compiled by Bengaluru Newsroom)
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MSCI's August index re-jig will add four Indian stocks and remove three from the global key index.
MSCI, a global index provider, announced on Thursday that it would 'add four Indian companies to the widely-tracked Global Standard Index and remove three in its August review. This highlights a 'continuing churn' of India’s representation within global passive portfolios. MSCI stated that the changes would be made after August 31st 2026's close of business and will take effect September 1st. Adani Energy Solutions (the Adani Group's power distribution and transmission arm), Lenskart (an omnichannel eyewear retailer), and Groww (a digital investment platform and brokering platform) will all?enter this index. These companies will replace Balkrishna Industries (a tyre manufacturer), SBI Cards (a credit card issuer), and Astral, a building materials company. After the reshuffle the number of Indian companies in the MSCI key index will increase from 165 to 166. Nuvama Alternative and Quantitative Research estimates that India's weighting in the global standard will also increase to 11.9%, from 11.8%. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and passive investors who replicate MSCI benchmarks are expected to buy significant amounts of shares. Nuvama Alternative and Quantitative Research estimates that potential inflows for Laurus Labs are about $598 millions, for Lenskart $352 millions, for Adani Energy Solutions $310 million, and for Groww $256 million. Balkrishna Industries SBI Cards Astral and other companies could experience passive outflows estimated at $169, $143 and $138 millions, respectively. The review also re-calibrated the weights of existing index members. Eternal will?attract?the?largest passive inflow at $674 million following an increase in weight. Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, and Adani Ports are expected to receive about $202 and $77 millions respectively. Reliance Industries may face an outflow of $523 million while Jio Financial Services could see $61 millions. Separately MSCI's Small?Index Review added Amagi?Media Labs and Ather Energy to the index, as well as Clean Max, Embassy Developments and Patanjali Foods. Rubicon Research and Sedemac were also removed, along with Sky Gold and Diamonds. United Breweries and WeWork India. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich in Bengaluru)
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Hegseth welcomes Colombia into the anti-drug alliance following its election
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth welcomed Colombia into a coalition of Western Hemisphere countries that are committed to fighting drugs. This follows the inauguration of Colombia's conservative president. Hegseth stated that Colombia has also authorized "joint operations to destroy terrorists and terror networks." The so-called Americas Counter-Cartel Coalition met in Panama. Its canal was a focal point of Latin America Policy under President Donald Trump. The U.S. has dramatically expanded its policy since then, with military strikes by the U.S. on suspected drug ships last September which have so far killed over 200 people and a U.S. led commando raid that took down Nicolas Maduro as president of Venezuela in January. Hegseth, who was at the Panama meeting with the coalition allies, encouraged them to withdraw from the International Criminal Court. He compared drug dealers to terrorists from al Qaeda and the Islamic State. Hegseth, speaking at a Panama City hotel, invoked the Monroe Doctrine, a 19th century policy that asserted U.S. dominance across the Americas, which critics attribute to decades of "U.S. intervention. He called it "Donroe Doctrine", a play on Trumps name. Hegseth stated that "we will defend our hemisphere against external threats," such as narcotraffickers and foreign influence. COLOMBIAN CRACKDOWN The Trump administration has backed up the Colombian president Abelardo De La Espriella in his vow to crackdown on security. On Friday, it announced plans to provide U.S. assistance of $1 billion to his government. De La Espriella, during his Friday inauguration speech, vowed "to definitively eradicate the scourge of illegal crops" and pledged to join the Shield of the Americas Program founded by Trump. De La Espriella blamed his leftist predecessor Gustavo Petro for the?expansion armed groups. De La Espriella’s election was part a rightwards shift that is sweeping Latin America. Weak economies and increasing crime in Peru, Argentina Chile, Ecuador Bolivia and Panama have changed voter priorities, allowing hard-right candidates who were once on the fringe to gain traction through promises of crackdowns amid an international rise of right-wing nationalism. Trump's administration in Panama won a major victory from the country’s Supreme Court after raising concerns about China's encroachment. Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison lost its?port concessions that it held for almost three decades through the local unit Panama Ports Company. Panama Canal is responsible for 5% of the global maritime trade. Control of its entry ports has become a geopolitical flashpoint between Washington and Beijing. In his remarks, Panama's President Jose Raul Mulino referred to drug trafficking as the "biggest challenge" facing the region. He also dismissed the concerns that the U.S. led coalition might infringe upon the sovereignty of its members. He did not mention China. He said that the real threat to sovereignty is the transnational criminal groups who traffic in drugs and people. Mulino stated that "there's no way there will be a lasting peace if (this enemy) advances." Reporting by Phil Stewart from Panama City, and Idrees Ali from Washington. Editing by Alistair Bell.
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American Airlines changes its leadership after CEO is under pressure to close the profit gap
American Airlines has reorganized its senior management. It is expanding oversight of the commercial and operations teams, and adding a former Spirit Airlines executive as the head of technical operations. CEO Robert Isom is under pressure to reduce American Airlines' profit gap. Isom, in a memo to staff seen by. acknowledged that there was a "meaningful. gap" between American Airlines' current performance and what he believed the airline should achieve. He described the actions as the "first in a series" of steps aimed at?strengthening the team, improving alignement and accelerating execution. The gap between the company and Delta Air Lines or United Airlines had already been?wider before the recent fuel price shock. This was a result of the U.S. - Israel attacks on Iran, which sparked a war causing?energy prices. John Bendoraitis, the former Spirit Airlines COO, will lead American's technical operations. This is one of several moves made to "try to boost performance". Chief Commercial Officer Nat Pieper's duties will include marketing and branding, Chief Customer Service Officer Heather Garboden will be responsible for reservations and service recovery and JC Gulbranson is in charge of airports and planning. According to the memo, Ron DeFeo will be stepping down as Chief Communications Officer. Caroline Clayton will be responsible for communications, and Steve Neuman will handle government affairs. Garboden, Gulbranson and Neuman are joining the senior leadership team of American. American will achieve roughly break-even in 2026 as the higher costs of jet fuel offset any gains made from increased revenue. Delta and United are expecting solid profits. Isom is already under pressure. Flight attendants called for a change in leadership earlier this year, and its pilot union questioned if the current management can close the gap. Nick Silva, the head of the pilots' union in America, recently said that American's breakeven forecast was not matched by profits made by rivals. He argued that "rising costs for fuel are not holding back our competitors from innovation and profit." In a memo sent to pilots, Silva stated that the union sought a meeting with the board of?American in order to discuss concerns regarding the future of the company but was "rebuffed." He said that since then, the union has held discussions with investors, analysts and other stakeholders. "The consensus is that something must change. "The only question that remains is, 'When'?" Silva wrote. Isom said he would not change course. He stated that American had "the right strategy" and the "right team" to deliver on it, as it focuses its efforts on expanding its network globally, growing premium revenues, and strengthening its AAdvantage program. (Reporting and editing by David Gaffen; reporting by Rajesh Kumar Singh)
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Colombian coffee exports are restricted following the earthquake
Market participants reported on Wednesday that coffee movement is limited in the main producing areas of Colombia, and that loadings into the export'market at the top coffee port Buenaventura are restricted - while the port management assesses possible damages. The 7.4-magnitude earthquake that struck Colombia on Monday severely damaged the main coffee-producing region, which is the third largest coffee-growing country in the world and a major supplier of arabica beans. The Colombian Coffee Federation and Sucafina, a leading soft commodities trader, reported that there were landslides blocking local roads in the mountainous area where coffee is grown. 60% to 70% of Colombian exports go through the port Buenaventura. The federation said that "port terminals in Buenaventura temporarily suspended their operations as infrastructure inspections were conducted and landslides which affected?access road?were addressed." Sucafina said that the movement in and around Buenaventura and the Eje Cafetero region (coffee-growing region) are currently restricted. However, the coffee federation said that exports continued unabated in other ports. This included Cartagena and Santa Marta which accounted for a lesser share of shipments. Sucafina - which supplies many roasters with Colombian coffee in the U.S. - said that it was evaluating alternate routes and logistic solutions for?the coffee shipments. Around a quarter all coffee consumed in the United States, the largest consumer of the beverage on the planet, comes from Colombia. Buenaventura Port said that it will gradually resume certain operations in areas of the complex that are considered safe. Port officials'said they would allow customers to retrieve containers that had arrived on the port site as part of imports. The port also said it would allow clients to access'some coffee and sugar warehousings' at the site, but would still keep a hold on arrivals of containers full for export. Reporting by Marcelo Téixeira, New York; Luis Jaime Acosta, Bogota. Editing by Alistair Bell.
Maersk Q2 profits surpass forecasts and raise outlook for the second time in this year
Maersk, the Danish shipping company, smashed its profit forecasts on Thursday and increased its earnings guidance for full-year this year for a second consecutive time as the Middle East conflict pushed up freight rates.
Maersk’s profit before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortisation for April to June was $3.0 billion. This is up from $2.30bn a year earlier.
Maersk is a bellwether of global trade due to its position as the second largest container shipper in the world. In June, it raised its outlook based on strong demand in Asia and predicted a global container market increase of?around 4 percent this year.
The company now expects an EBITDA underlying of between $10 billion and $12 billion. This is up from $8 billion to 10 billion previously. It also expects an operating profit underlying between $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion.
Shipping giants have seen a rise in profits due to turbulence that has pushed up the freight rates in the global market. This includes the U.S./Iran War, which caused disruptions in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthi attacks on the Red Sea.
Analysts have warned that the recent strength of the freight market masks greater?risks in the future, and any normalisation of Red Sea trade would significantly lower freight rates. Most shippers abandoned the Asia-Europe trade route through 'the Suez Canal' earlier this decade after Houthi attacks in Yemen's Red Sea forced ships to sail around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. As a result of the longer trips around Africa, shipping rates increased, and freight became more expensive. However, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, have announced in recent months that they will resume some services via the Suez Canal, as part a gradual return.
(source: Reuters)