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Maguire: Key US wind energy trends and metrics for tracking

Wind farms are the second-largest source of clean energy in the U.S., behind nuclear power plants.

In the past two years, the construction of wind farms has been slowed by a lack of parts, a rise in labour costs, and a delay in development.

Recent drops in development costs and lucrative tax credits that will be available in 2025 has rekindled the growth of wind projects in 2024.

This should elevate wind power to a higher status in the U.S. mix of generation, and make wind farms a major pillar of U.S. electricity system for the next few years.

Here are some key data and trends that will help you track the development of this vital power source.

GROWING FOOTPRINT

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the installed wind power capacity in the U.S. currently stands at 152 gigawatts.

This capacity is up by 46% since 2019 and 135% from 10 years ago.

According to Ember, the U.S. averaged an annual growth in wind capacity of 9% over the last decade. This is a little more than Europe, but lower than the global average, which was 13% per year.

China, which is the largest wind producer in the world, has a growth rate of 19% per year.

The U.S. is still ranked second behind China in terms of wind power, with 441 GW. Germany (69GW), India (445GW), and Spain (31/GW) are also on the list of top 5.

Change Power Mix

Wind power has been steadily increasing in the United States, resulting in a significant shift in the generation mix of this country.

According to EIA, wind power contributed an average of 15 percent of the capacity added to the U.S. electricity system between 2000 and 2010, and 27 percent of capacity since 2010.

Solar and wind power capacity combined accounted for about 60% of U.S. capacity additions in 2010 highlighting the U.S. drive to clean energy over that period.

Ember data indicates that by 2023 wind power will account for 12 percent of the U.S. capacity for electricity production. This compares to 11 percent for solar energy, 8 per cent for nuclear power, 7 per cent for hydropower, 16 per cent for coal, and 43percent for natural gas.

STATE & SYSTEM SPA

According to EIA, Texas will be the state with the most wind energy capacity, with 28% of all installed capacity by 2023.

Texas has a wind power capacity of 42 GW, compared to 13 GW for Iowa, 12.6 in Oklahoma, and 9 in Kansas, the top five states in terms of wind power.

Iowa is the state with the highest wind share, at nearly 60%.

South Dakota (55%) is ranked first, followed by Kansas (46%), Oklahoma (42%), and New Mexico (38%). Texas produces 22% of the state's power through wind.

Southwest Power Pool, which spans 14 states from Oklahoma to North Dakota, generates 37% of the power it uses from wind farms.

Next in line is the Midcontinent Independent System Operator system (MISO), with a share of 14%.

TALLER, WIDER & COST-EFFECTIVE

As wind power capacity has grown, so too have the size and scale.

According to the American Clean Power Association and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the average nameplate power of U.S. turbines was 2 megawatts.

The average capacity of each turbine will increase to 3.4 MW in 2023 due to the increased size and height averages for the hubs and rotors.

The average diameter for a turbine rotor, which rotates the blades to produce power, has increased by 31% since 2015 from 102.4 meters to 134 metres (440 feet).

The height of the turbine hub, which is the main drivetrain for a turbine, has also increased from 83 meters in 2015 to around 103 meters in 2023.

The cost of wind turbines has decreased.

According to LBNL, the average global price for a Vestas turbine - one Europe's biggest turbine manufacturers – has fallen from $1,700 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2010 to 2014 to $1,050 since 2018.

This has resulted to a drop of more than 35% in the average capacity-weighted cost of a wind power project. From around $2,600/kWh in 2010 through 2014, it is now around $1,650.

The levelized cost for wind power has been lowered by lower turbine and generation costs. This allows comparisons to be made between the generation costs of different power sources once projects have been completed.

According to LBNL, a typical 2023 power purchase agreement for energy project developers would have wind power costs of around $26 per Megawatt Hour (MWh).

This compares to $37 for a utility scale photovoltaic farm and $28 for a natural gas combined cycle plant. Wind power is now one of the cheapest forms of energy in the United States.

Additional cost savings are expected as more wind projects are being built and the competition between turbine manufacturers keeps prices down.

(source: Reuters)