Latest News

Take Five: Jackson Hole to Anchorage

Stock-market bulls are not facing any major obstacles at the moment, but the events following the U.S./Russia Summit in Alaska, the central bank party in Wyoming, and the result of Bolivia's elections may cause them to be cautious.

This week's predictions come from Rocky Swift, Suzanne McGee, and Rodrigo Campos of New York; and Dhara Ranasinghe, and Naomi Rovnick of London.

1/ THE BEGINNING OR THE END?

After Donald Trump's Friday meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and European leaders later on Monday, it is the turn of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to meet the U.S. president to discuss a possible peace agreement.

Trump might try to press Kyiv to accept a settlement that is favorable to Moscow. Zelenskiy had already rejected the outline Putin's proposal, which included Ukraine giving up the remainder of the eastern Donetsk Region, where it controls only a quarter.

Markets will hesitate to price in a war's end until at least a ceasefire is agreed.

Europe is unlikely to accept Russia even if the peace in Ukraine returns. Investors are likely to continue to favor defence stocks for the time being.

JACKSON HOLE IN ONE

The summer is officially here on the financial markets. The Q2 earnings have been released, and the next batch of economic data won't be available until early September. Many money managers and traders will head to the beach for a vacation. Jackson Hole is the only thing that should worry you.

Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, will be among those attending this annual central bankers' gathering. The conference is taking place at a time when stocks are nearing record highs and Trump continues to fire pot shots at Powell.

Jackson Hole could be disruptive. Powell's hint that there won't be a rate cut in September could cause the markets to sell off. A tone too upbeat from the Fed chairman may also fuel euphoria. Steve Sosnick is a strategist at IBKR. He says that bull markets can die from euphoria.

STAGFLATION NATION

While global stocks have been rallying, everything from the weak U.S. employment data to the troubles at the top of Federal Reserve has given a reason to bet against U.S. interest rate cuts. This means that it is not profitable to be a bear.

BofA surveyed global investors and found that 60% believe U.S. stagflation will be the dominant market regime in three months.

Strategists at Societe Generale believe that the benchmark S&P 500 index has outperformed a basket of stocks which perform well in stagflationary conditions, where inflation increases and growth slows.

The business surveys that will be released next week, which are able to reveal economic trends before official data is released, may provide more information about whether U.S. Tariffs are pushing the largest economy in the world towards stagflation.

SocGen expects Fed rate reductions to create a bubble in the stock market that could last until next year.

OUTLIER 4

The Bank of Japan, in contrast to other central banks that are lowering rates in order to provide a "soft landing" for their economies, is attempting to increase borrowing costs.

Next Friday's data on inflation will be closely scrutinized for any indication of when the BOJ will begin its long-promised tightening cycle.

The BOJ has been aiming for a 2% increase since the beginning of 2013.

The BOJ was the only bank to have pursued quantitative easing harder and longer than any other. The long road to normalisation was complicated by the uncertainty surrounding U.S. Tariffs and the concern about whether Japan saw the right type of price increase.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda justified the slower rate increases because the underlying inflation, which is based on wages and domestic demand, is still below central bank target.

Pick Me

Rodrigo Paz, a centrist senator, was the frontrunner in Sunday's Bolivian presidential election.

The elections kick off a series of national and regional votes in Latin America, which will continue until late next year when Brazil elects a new president (or keeps the incumbent).

Investors want to know if the "pink wave" of 2022 will bring more right-wing governments to power.

Bonds in Bolivia rose ahead of the Bolivian elections on the hope that a political shift could help the economy recover from its brink.

Local elections in Argentina are viewed as a measure of the popularity for President Javier Milei’s radical economic reform. Chile elects a new president in November. Next year, Colombia will elect its congress in March followed by a presidential election in May. Peru will hold a presidential vote in April, and Brazil in October 2026.

(source: Reuters)