Latest News

Maguire: Why Italy's low hydro output could hamper Europe's gas reconstruction efforts

The European push to build up natural gas stocks is largely influenced by global LNG storage and flow targets. Another key constraint is found further south, in the Alpine reservoirs which underpin Italy's Hydroelectric System.

It is a silent stabilizer of Europe's gas supply when Italy's hydro production peaks. This allows power companies in the region to reduce gas consumption as hydro generation reaches its peak.

When Italy's hydro-production is weak, the effects are felt far beyond its borders. The stronger gas consumption in Europe's 3rd largest gas consumer tightens up supplies across the region.

Data from LSEG & Ember show that Italy's hydro -production is down by more than a quarter compared with normal after a warm, dry winter. Gas power production has also risen to its highest level in four years.

Italy's hydropower peak is likely past due to the low snowfall this winter and a warm, wet spring which has accelerated snowmelt.

This means that any future increases in the national power requirements - for example, increased use of air conditioners to combat heat waves - will almost exclusively be reliant upon natural gas plants which are the backbone of the electricity system of the country.

Italy's increased gas consumption during the same period could complicate the restocking effort by causing a shortage of gas and possibly raising prices.

Italy and other southern European countries may be forced to burn more gas in the future due to hydro dam production levels that are well below average, while other parts of Europe aim to put more gas in storage tanks.

From First to Last?

Italy, in an ironic twist of the European gas storage saga is currently leading the way when it comes to replenishing gas tanks after?severe depletions during the winter.

According to LSEG's data, Italy's gas storage system is around 61% full. This compares with less than half of the tanks at the end April, when they were the lowest for years.

Gas storage levels in Europe are only 41% full. This is the lowest level for several years. Regional gas tank operators will need to increase their efforts to restock if they want to have full inventories by winter.

Italy's low hydro levels may force power companies to slow down gas storage rates and increase their?gas consumption.

LSEG data shows that Italy's hydro dams produced an average of 2,472 megawatts per hour (MWh/hr) between January and May.

This is a decrease of 28% compared to the same period in 2025 and the lowest since 2022.

Italy's energy firms increased the average amount of gas-fired electricity generated from January to May by approximately 5.2% compared to 2025, or around 11,400MWh/h.

The average gas generation in May was 7,373MWh/month, which is 35% higher than the average rate of 2025 during the same period, when the average generation from Italy’s hydro dams averaged around 38% more than this year’s May total.

IMPACTS ARE BIGGER

It is more than simply changing the mix of power for Italy's generators. The switch from hydro to gas has a material impact on system generation costs.

The network of hydroelectric power plants in northern Italy can generate large amounts of dispatchable electricity at a low cost, allowing gas to be stored and reducing overall production costs.

When hydro dam production is hindered, Italy's energy producers are forced to use more expensive natural gases to fill any gaps in generation, which increases system costs.

The impact is felt across Europe.

According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, Italy's periods of strong hydro production have allowed it to contribute to the gas rebuilding cycle in Europe, since the country holds close to 20 percent of the region's total gas storage capacity.

When hydro production fails, the dynamic changes. The gas burn increases, storage injections are slowing, and Italy's position shifts from one of buffer to one of constraint.

The challenge is not cyclical anymore. Italy's hydro production is becoming less reliable structurally.

Warmer winters are eroding the Alpine snowpack and reducing the amount of water that is available for spring melt. Hotter summers also increase evaporation and put pressure on reservoir levels.

The patterns of rainfall are also becoming more unpredictable, making it difficult to store and capture water.

This system produces a lower and more volatile production throughout the year.

Hydropower is no longer a reliable backbone in Italy's energy mix. It has become a less predictable source of power. This unpredictability is most important during the spring and summer, when Europe is trying rebuild its gas stocks.

Trackers of Europe's stockpiles of gas must also keep an eye on Italy's reserve output. This suggests that regional gas consumption may be increasing just as storage injections reach their peak growth period this year.

These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)