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US LNG exports primed to leap as rate arb to Europe widens: Maguire

United States exports of LNG to Europe are set to jump in the coming weeks after the cost spread between domestic gas and Europe's. main gas pricing hub hit oneyear highs.

The rate differential between U.S. Henry Center gas. futures - the U.S. gas cost standard - and the TTF gas. trading center in The Netherlands has broadened by over 30% from. the existing 2024 average for shipment during the coming winter season.

That's signalling bumper revenue capacity for U.S. exporters. of liquefied gas (LNG), who are increasing the volumes. of gas streams to export centers.

The increased LNG shipments to Europe will trigger a profits. rise for the biggest U.S. LNG exporters, consisting of Cheniere. , TotalEnergies and Freeport LNG.

But greater demand for gas at LNG export terminals. also raises the capacity for an additional climb in U.S. domestic. gas costs, which are already at their greatest given that January.

That means that while U.S. LNG exporters have a strong. chance to boost incomes, they likewise face the threat of. reviving inflation and activating a backlash against the export. of energy items required for power generation in your home.

EUROPE BOUND

U.S. natural gas prices are currently around 80% lower than. TTF rates, providing LNG exporters the opportunity to make money from. the large rate differential between the gas grades.

So far in 2024, Henry Center gas futures have actually averaged around. $ 8 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) less than TTF gas. futures, according to LSEG.

That price differential in favour of U.S. providers has. urged continual U.S. LNG exports to Europe, which have. amounted to around 82 million cubic meters over the very first 10 months. of the year, according to Kpler.

However, an even broader price spread is predicted through the. coming winter which looks set to spur even bigger deliveries.

Forward markets from November through completion of March 2025. suggest that the Henry Hub-TTF rate spread is approximately $11 per. MMBtu. That's a $3 boost over the 2024 average so far, and a. strong incentive for U.S. exporters to improve shipments even more.

Europe has actually purchased over two-thirds of U.S. LNG shipments. since 2022, when Russia's intrusion of Ukraine triggered cuts to. Russian gas pipeline flows to Europe and sparked a scramble by. European gas buyers to plug supply spaces with LNG.

And U.S. LNG exporters are keen to maintain market share in. Europe as the expense of serving European purchasers is far lower. compared to clients in Asia, due to far longer journey times. to buyers in Japan, China and South Korea.

The roughly 12-day trip from Cove Point LNG terminal in. Maryland to Wilhelmshaven in Germany - a major European LNG. import center - is a third of the time of the journey to Guangdong in. China, the world's largest LNG buyer.

That reasonably quick turn-around time indicates U.S. exporters. will prefer to prioritise Europe over other locations over. the coming months.

Nevertheless, Europe's reasonably strong gas rates means the. continent is likewise prized by other sellers.

DIVERSIONS & & CONGESTION?

LSEG forward price information indicates that TTF costs are around. $ 2 per MMBtu greater than LNG prices based off Brent-indexed LNG. agreements, which utilize the rate of Brent crude oil in. developing LNG rates.

That price premium in Europe has already triggered traders. to divert some freights from other markets, with the goal of. recording the greater prices available in Europe compared to. other areas.

Any continual cost strength in Europe relative to other. markets will spur traders with unsold cargoes from Qatar and. in other places to concentrate on finding buyers in Europe.

That in turn will supply stiff competitors for U.S. exporters, even if U.S. sail times to Europe are approximately a week. shorter compared to shipments from Qatar.

However, more competitors for purchasers in Europe will in time. serve to depress European costs, which need to then erode the. economics of sending out LNG to Europe from remote origins.

That bodes well for U.S. exporters, as long as domestic gas. costs remain significantly cheaper than gas materials in other LNG. export hubs.

The primary risk for U.S. LNG exporters is that domestic gas. prices rapidly push higher, which could be set off by the. enduring strong gas demand at LNG export terminals along with a. sharp boost in domestic gas use for heating.

Such a circumstance might spark reaction amongst U.S. power. customers, who are already reeling from high inflation and could. push for steps that slow the circulation of U.S. natural gas to. abroad customers.

That implies U.S. LNG sellers may be require to be content to. make use of the current open sales window to Europe, and after that dial. back sales volumes if domestic costs gather more upside. momentum.

The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a market. expert .

(source: Reuters)