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Oil prices to stop their downward trend as Ukraine peace process stagnates

As hopes of an imminent peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine dwindled, oil prices remained stable on Friday. Prices are now on track to achieve their first weekly increase in three weeks.

Brent crude futures rose 8 cents or 0.1% to $67.75 per barrel at 0815 GMT. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) rose 12 cents or 0.2% to $63.64.

Both contracts rose more than 1% during the previous session. Brent is up 2.8% this week, while WTI has gained 1.4%.

Giovanni Staunovo, UBS commodities analyst, said: "Everyone waits for President Trump to take the next step." Over the next few days, nothing seems to happen.

The three-and-a-half-year war continued unabated this week as Russia launched an air attack near Ukraine's border with the European Union on Thursday and Ukraine said it hit a Russian oil refinery and the Unecha oil pumping station, a critical part of Russia's Europe-bound Druzhba oil pipeline. Hungary confirmed that deliveries via the pipeline have been stopped.

Trump wants to set up a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin, and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy in order to broker a deal for Ukraine.

In a Friday client note, ING analysts stated that arranging a ceasefire meeting is difficult and discussions about potential security guarantees are fraught with obstacles. They said that the less likely it appears a ceasefire will be, the greater the likelihood of U.S. sanctions against Russia.

After the first face-to-face meeting between U.S. leaders and Russians since Russia invaded Ukraine, U.S. planners and European planners presented their military options to national security advisors.

Sources said that Putin demanded Ukraine to give up the entire eastern Donbas region and renounce NATO aspirations, while keeping Western troops out.

Zelenskiy rejected the idea of withdrawing land internationally recognized as Ukrainian. Trump promised to protect Ukraine in any deal ending the war.

US OIL STOCKS FALL MORE THAN EXPECTED

The oil prices were also supported in the last week by a greater than expected withdrawal from U.S. crude stocks, which indicates strong demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that stocks fell by 6,000,000 barrels during the week ending August 15. Analysts expected a drawdown of 1.8m barrels.

The weak economic data released by Germany on Friday, which showed that Europe's biggest economy contracted by 0.3% during the second quarter, partially offset the stock market decline, and raised concerns about oil demand.

Investors also looked to the Jackson Hole Economic Conference in Wyoming for signs of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. The annual meeting of central bankers started on Thursday, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke on Friday.

Lower interest rates could stimulate the economy and increase oil demand. This would lead to a possible rise in prices. (Reporting and editing by David Goodman. Additional reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan)

(source: Reuters)