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WGC-Shell anticipates that more LNG exporters will become net importers and drive demand

Shell Energy expects that several traditionally LNG exporting nations will become net importers. This could drive demand for super-cooled fuel and ease concerns about an oversupply of the super-cooled fuel due to a number of new planned projects.

Shell's Executive Vice President for LNG, Cederic Cremers said that Indonesia, Malaysia and Algeria will likely become net importers in the future, as their domestic demand is increasing while their production is decreasing.

He said that he predicted that the LNG market would grow by 50 million tonnes between now and the year 2040.

These LNG exporters will likely join Egypt which became a LNG net importer last season.

Egypt is currently in negotiations with energy companies and trading houses for the purchase of 40-60 LNG cargoes, as a result of a worsening shortage ahead summer peak demand. Shell and TotalEnergies had earlier signed contracts worth $3 billion to secure LNG.

While LNG projects face challenges, they are also affected by delays in project completion during the COVID Pandemic, which limited the new supply of LNG in 2023-2024. They may also be affected by bottlenecks and shortages in supply chains around the world, and labour shortages along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Cremers stated that "the net increase in the supply capacity for 2024 was just about 2 mtpa" (million metric tonnes per annum). This is because some projects, which were supposed to be completed by then, have been delayed.

He said that the new capacity from these projects might be more phased and not all come at once as some industry analysts had reported.

We may also see some softer landings in terms of supply on the market.

Diamond Gas International, TotalEnergies and other producers have also stated that they anticipate a glut of LNG around 2027-2028.

QatarEnergy’s North Field East Natural Gas Expansion Project, which will start production by mid-2026, is a major project. The U.S. companies, which are the largest LNG exporters in the world, plan to approve new production capacity of over 90 million tons per annum this year.

Cremers says that increased infrastructure investments in Asia and latent demand will help absorb the new supply.

Shell forecasts that the global demand for LNG would rise by 60% by 2040. This is mainly due to economic growth in Asia and AI's power-hungry nature, as well as efforts to reduce emissions in heavy industry and transportation.

Cremers stated that Asian demand is sensitive, however, to price.

"We noticed that spot prices in Q2 fell below $10 per MMBtu, and you could see a strong response from customers in Asia at that time." (Reporting and editing by Florence Tan, Tomaszjanowski and Colleen Waye)

(source: Reuters)