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Families of passengers on flight MH370 urge Malaysia to extend its search
Families of those onboard Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 urged the Malaysian Government to extend a contract signed with Ocean Infinity, a deep-sea research firm, to continue the search for 'the aircraft that vanished a year ago. The Boeing 777 was carrying 227 passengers, 12 crew members and was en route to Beijing from Kuala Lumpur on March 8, 2014. Its disappearance became one of the most enduring aviation mysteries in history. Since then, multiple search operations have been conducted to find the plane in the southern Indian Ocean but have all proved unsuccessful. Malaysia agreed in March of last year to allow Ocean Infinity?resume their hunt on the basis that if they failed to find the wreckage, the firm would not be charged. The company was only to receive $70 million if it found the wreckage. Malaysia's Air Accident Investigation Bureau announced on Sunday that the two phases of search, which spanned 28 days, and covered 7,571 square kilometers (2,923 square miles) seabed, had so far not yielded any results. The AAIB reported that weather and sea conditions periodically interrupted operations, with the second stage ending on January 23. The government said that it will continue to update families as necessary. Voice370, which represents families of those aboard, stated that it was unlikely Ocean Infinity would resume the search until its contract expires in June due to the upcoming winter months in the southern hemisphere, and the deteriorating conditions at sea. The government was urged to grant any request by Ocean Infinity for an extension of its agreement and to expand the same terms on to other interested exploration companies. It said that a simple?addendum would extend the contract term without changing the core terms of the agreement, allowing the search to proceed without delay. Ocean Infinity conducted previous searches for the plane, but did not find any substantial wreckage. In a report published in 2018, Malaysian investigators did not reach a conclusion on what had happened, but they didn't rule out that the plane could have been intentionally taken off course.
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ADNOC manages offshore output and onshore operations continue
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company announced on Saturday that it was 'actively managing offshore production levels to meet storage requirements amidst the U.S. -Isaeli war on Iran', and its onshore operations are continuing. ADNOC stated in a press release that "this approach will preserve operational flexibility and enable the company resume normal operations with no prolonged delay." Eight-day war has now blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz - the vital waterway that supplies 20% of the world's oil and LNG. Analysts predicted that the UAE and Saudi Arabia would soon be forced to reduce production as their oil reserves fill up. ADNOC stated that its operations were 'continuing' and that it was using export capacity which?bypasses strait, as well as international storage facilities to guarantee supply continuity to global market. The UAE can bypass this strait by using the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (also known as the Habshan Fujairah Pipeline). The pipeline transports oil directly from Abu Dhabi to Fujairah, on the Gulf of Oman. It has a daily capacity of between 1.5 million and 1.8 million barrels. "Business units ?are assessing the situation on a product-by-product and transaction-by-transaction basis, considering the ongoing disruption that is ?affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz," it ?said. ADNOC said it has activated protocols that are well-established and works closely with authorities to safeguard its people, assets and operations. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation cut oil production on Saturday, declaring force majeure. This was in addition to the earlier reductions of oil and gas from Iraq and Qatar. Yousef SABA, Timothy Heritage and Jan Harvey edited the report.
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Trump aggressively launches Latin America cartel alliance
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, welcomed Latin American leaders to Florida on Saturday, to launch a coalition against drug cartels. He also struck a dismissive note toward the region by telling officials that their countries had allowed gangs seize territory, and joked about not having time to learn their language. Trump described the effort as "an aggressive campaign to combat drug cartels", citing them as the primary reason for increasing U.S. involvement Latin America. This included a pressure campaign on Venezuela, which culminated in January with the capture of President Nicolas Maduro. Trump said at one point that the United States would use missiles to take out cartel leaders, if their partners asked for it. He said that Mexico was the hub of cartel activity, and predicted a major political shift in Cuba. The country is "very close to the end," he said. He repeated previous statements about Cuban officials negotiating with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and him. A dozen leaders of Central America, South America and the Caribbean attended the "Shield of the Americas", where Trump signed the proclamation that launched the coalition. Trump stated that "leaders in this area have allowed large swaths to land in the Western Hemisphere come under the control of transnational gangs and they have run parts of your country." "We won't let that happen." In a speech lasting more than 30 mins, Trump touched on many other topics besides drug cartels. These included Iran, Ukraine?Pakistan, India, political endorsements by former president Jimmy Carter and Dominican sugar. He also spoke about building battleships and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s "soothing personality". Trump made jokes about the language differences between him and the majority Spanish-speaking leaders. He said, "I am not going to learn your language." "I don't want to." Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants who spoke briefly in both English and Spanish later, echoed Trump’s position. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also spoke. Hegseth joked, "I only speak American." Trump joked that Kamla Persad Bisssar's name sounded similar to the former U.S. vice president Kamala Harris. Trump has worked to create a regional coalition to fight organized crime and drug cartels more aggressively. The event on Saturday gave him the opportunity to show his strength at home, as the war against Iran escalates. This could push global oil and gas costs higher. Trump had earlier in the day said that Iran would be "hit hard" on Sunday and that he considered expanding the areas and people targeted. He did not provide any details. Allies of the Right Attend SUMMIT Among the attendees were Argentine president Javier Milei and Chile's newly-elected President Jose Antonio Kast, as well as Salvadoran President 'Nayib' Bukele. His gang crackdown has been criticized by rights groups but is now a model of sorts for some parts of Latin America. Politicians from the region toured Bukele’s sprawling "mega prison", where the United States deported over 200 Venezuelans last year without trial. The Honduran president Nasry Asfura was also in attendance. He narrowly won an disputed 'election' with Trump's support. And Ecuador's president Daniel Noboa who has echoed some of Trump's agenda on the economy and who recently announced joint military operations with the U.S. to 'crackdown' on drug trafficking. Many of these?leaders are in agreement with Trump's hardline views on crime and immigration, preferring crackdowns to deeper social fixes, and private enterprise over the state. Their rise is a reflection of a wider rightward shift in Latin America, at a moment when the region finds itself caught between Washington and Beijing. CHALLENGING CHINA'S GROWING RELATIONAL INFLUENCE Trump didn't mention China directly, but warned the United States that it would not allow "hostile influence" in the Western Hemisphere to take root, including at the Panama Canal - a major global freight route. Washington, while not explicitly saying so, increasingly views Latin America as a strategic rivalry with Beijing. According to Ryan Berg, of the Center for Stratégic and International Studies, China's trade in the Western Hemisphere will reach $518 billion by 2024. Beijing has also extended loans worth more than $120 million to government officials in the Western Hemisphere. The U.S. has been concerned about China's increasing footprint, from satellite tracking in Argentina to the Chinese-backed Peruvian port and its economic support for Venezuela. The Trump administration has responded by urging governments in the region to curtail Beijing's involvement in strategic infrastructure, such as ports, energy projects, and other strategic infrastructure. (Reporting from Nandita BOSE in Miami, Florida; David Brunnstrom, Washington, and Sarah Morland, Mexico City. Additional reporting by Simon Lewis, Washington, and Natalia Siniawski, Mexico City. Editing by Sergio Non and Himani Sarkar.
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Sweden claims ship confiscated in Baltic Sea was falsely flagged, and one crew member has been notified of the crime
The Swedish police announced on Saturday that a ship taken by 'Sweden' in the Baltic Sea was sailing under a false flag and had been suspected of 'violating maritime law and the national ship-safety act due to its lack of seaworthiness. Johan Andersson said at a press briefing that one crew member had been notified of the suspected violation of national and international laws. The police and coast guard took control on Friday of the Guinea-flagged Caffa off southern Sweden. They said it was unclear about its flag status, and therefore suspected of being a stateless vessel. Andersson said on Saturday that "our investigation has confirmed our suspicions, and we are of the opinion that this ship is a sea vessel with extensive safety deficiencies." He said that he had also received information that the ship would be on the Ukraine sanctions list. Andersson stated that the majority of the 11 crew on the?Caffa ship, which, according to?ship-tracking service MarineTraffic, is a 96 meter general cargo vessel, are Russian.
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Floods in Nairobi kill 23 and disrupt flights at a major airport
Authorities said that aid workers pulled bodies from the floodwaters in Nairobi after flash floods began over night. The floods killed 23 people and swept away cars, disrupting flights at East Africa’s largest airport. William Ruto, Kenyan president, said that he has deployed a team to coordinate rescue efforts. This includes soldiers. He also offered condolences for the communities affected. In a statement on social media, he added: "I've also ordered that food relief from our?national strategically reserves be released immediately and distributed to the families affected by floods." John Lomayan (34), a security guard in the industrial area of Grogan, saw the body of a man trapped under a car washed away when the Nairobi River burst its banks. He pointed up the road and said: "I saw him getting carried by the water up there." "We didn’t know where he was. We only just now see him underneath the car. John Mwai, a bus driver in Kenya, described how he converted his bus to a rescue vehicle so that he could move people up to higher ground. Kenya Airways reported that rains disrupted some flights to Nairobi, forcing them to divert. Scientists claim that global warming is causing droughts and floods to worsen in East Africa, by concentrating rain into short bursts of 'intense rainfall. A 2024 World Weather Attribution Study found that climate change made the likelihood of devastating rains twice as high as it was before. The reporter saw three bodies pulled from underneath cars. A reporter saw three dead bodies being pulled out from under cars. Some of the dead were electrocuted due to damaged power lines. Kenya Power, the national provider of electricity, said that water had damaged equipment in a substation. It listed 14 affected neighbourhoods. "I don't even know how many cars there are, or what all the stuff is. All washed away. "All of the water came from that river," said Cedric Mwanza, an astonished resident, referring the Nairobi River. Humphrey Malalo contributed additional reporting from Nairobi. Tim Cocks is the writer. Mark Potter (editing)
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Ten people killed by flash floods in Nairobi, disrupting flights at a major airport
Authorities said that aid workers pulled bodies out of floodwaters in Nairobi after overnight flash flooding killed at least ten people and swept away dozens cars. Flights at East Africa's largest airport were also disrupted. John Lomayan (34), a security guard in the industrial area of Grogan, saw the body of an elderly man that he recognized - a roadside seller. The car had been washed out by the Nairobi River. He pointed up the road and said: "I saw him being carried by water up there." "We didn't even know where he was. We only just now see him underneath the car. Three bodies were pulled out from under cars by a reporter. The police said that 10 people have been confirmed dead so far. Scientists claim that global warming worsens floods and dry spells in East Africa because it concentrates?rainfalls into shorter, intense bursts. The 2024 World Weather Attribution Study found that climate change made the likelihood of devastating rains twice as high in the region. Kenya?Airways reported that the rains disrupted?flights into Nairobi, forcing some to divert their flights to Mombasa. "I don't even know how many cars there are, or what all the stuff is. All of it was (washed away). "All of the water came from that river," said Cedric Mwanza, a shocked resident. (Written by Tim Cocks. Mark Potter edited the text.
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Shipper MSC introduces emergency fuel surcharge
Shipping company MSC announced on Saturday that it would implement a fuel surcharge for all cargo from the Mediterranean (including West Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea, East Mediterranean and Greece) and Black Sea, to the Indian Subcontinent, the Red Sea and East Africa. This will be effective March 16, 2019. The surcharge was set at $30 per twenty-foot equivalent unit for dry containers and $50 per TEU refrigerated containers from the Mediterranean, Black Sea and Red Sea. The world's largest ocean container carrier said that dry containers traveling from the Mediterranean, Black Sea, and East Africa would be charged at $60 per TEU. Refrigerated containers, however, will be charged at $90. MSC will also charge a surcharge for dry containers of $40 per TEU from the Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea, to the Indian subcontinent. For refrigerated containers the surcharge is $60 per TEU. (Reporting by Chandni Shah in Bengaluru. Mark Potter edited the article.
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At least seven people were killed in Kharkiv by Russian drones and missiles.
Russian officials reported that overnight on Saturday, Russia fired a barrage of drones and missiles into Ukraine, killing at least seven people, including two children, in Kharkiv. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, said that Russia had launched 480 drones as well as 29 missiles against the energy sector and rail infrastructure in the country. "Partners should respond to these brutal attacks against life," Zelenskiy said on Telegram. "Russia is not giving up its efforts to destroy Ukraine's critical infrastructure and residential areas, so?support should continue," Zelenskiy said. He urged partners to continue their air defence and weapon supplies. Oleh Syniehubov said, Kharkiv Regional Governor, that seven people were killed, including two kids, after a Russian missile struck a five-storey building. He said that rescue workers are still clearing rubble from the site. According to?Syniehubov, the Russians attacked Kharkiv and damaged seven residential apartment buildings, 'commercial and administrative' buildings, electricity distribution lines and cars. Officials in Ukraine said that Russia attacked four railway stations in central Ukraine and other rail infrastructure, as well as port infrastructure in the southern Odesa area. They also claimed that containers containing vegetable oil were set on fire and a grain storage facility was damaged. Reporting by Olena Hartmash. Tom Hogue, Mark Potter and Tom Hogue edited the article.
What can oil prices tell you about the market? Not a lot: Bousso
The global oil market is experiencing a series of price spikes due to geopolitical tensions and the opaque stockpiling. Western sanctions and tightening Western sanction are also causing traders to be in the dark.
There are questions about the accuracy of prices reflecting physical fundamentals due to the growing influence of unpredictable external forces on one of world's most liquid and largest commodity markets.
In fact, it appears that the global oil market is struggling to find a balance between supply and demand. The International Energy Agency predicts that oil production will exceed demand this year by 3.7 million barrels per day, which is more than 3%.
Prices tell a very different story. Brent crude oil prices, which are the benchmark for all other crude oils, have fluctuated in recent weeks. However they remain stable at over $65 per barrel.
The forward curve also shows a steep backwardation. This is a characteristic structure that's usually associated with a tight supply.
What is the explanation? The uncertainty surrounding events in the Middle East played a part over the last few weeks. Oil prices have risen to $70 per barrel due to the risk of U.S. strikes against Iran and the potential for the conflict to spread across the entire region.
The CBOE crude volatility index is at its highest level since last June's 12-day Israel-Iran conflict.
U.S. and Iranian tensions will only be a short-term issue, unless they spiral out of control. However, other long-term trends could obscure the picture of supply and demand for many months.
STOCKS ARE BUILDING
Stocks are increasing globally, which is a sign that the market is oversupplied. Geopolitical fragmentation creates regional divergences which complicates this simple equation.
Morgan Stanley predicts that global crude stocks will rise by 730 million barrels in this year, or 520 million barrels. According to ROI estimates, the bulk of the stockpile was in China. The country has placed around 800,000 barrels per day into storage during the last year. This figure indicates an increase of over 300 million barrels by 2025.
China's exact crude reserves and storage capacity are still unclear. The strategic reserves of China are largely hidden underground, beyond the reach of satellites. This makes it difficult to know how much is actually in storage and how much can be added.
China's buying strategy is also uncertain. Beijing has a tendency to reduce its purchases when prices increase, so the stockpiling may have been slowed after recent price increases near $70 per barrel. The market doesn't know.
This opacity is a major blind spot for the oil markets and has changed the way that rising storage levels are interpreted.
In the past, oil prices were closely tied to changes in inventories of countries that are members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, notably those from America and Europe which have long been dominant forces on global demand. A rise in stockpiles was generally considered negative.
Martijn Rats is an analyst with Morgan Stanley. He says that the buildup of visible OECD inventory signals a negative price signal, but the Chinese stockbuildups are perceived as a bullish sign, indicating heightened demand, which offsets this.
This could explain why the crude oil prices haven't dropped despite an increase in global inventories.
CONFUSION GEOPOLITIQUE
Western sanctions against several oil-producing countries are complicating the picture.
Kpler reports that China, India, and Turkey are importing 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of Venezuelan, Iranian, and Russian crude. This is expected to increase to 4.5 million by 2025. This picture is changing following the ban imposed by the European Union, which took effect on 21 January, on imports from?fuels refined using Russian crude and President Donald Trump increasing pressure on India to reduce Russian oil purchases.
India has cut its Russian crude imports by about 1 million barrels per day this year. This is down from 1.6 millions bpd a decade ago. According to Trump, India also promised to reduce further purchases.
These changes are forcing market adjustments. Western restrictions have boosted the demand for barrels that are not sanctioned and for tankers that comply with regulations. This has increased costs for refiners in Asia because of limited production.
Since early January, Asian refinery margins are smaller than those of Europe. The former averages around $6 per barrel this year while the latter is $9. The main reason for this difference is logistics costs.
Keshav Lhiya is the CEO of HiLo Analytics. He said that freight was a significant regional differentiator in 2018.
According to LSEG, freight rates for a VLCC sailing from the 'Middle East' or?West Africa to Asia has risen by nearly 150% in the past year.
Shipping costs for Asian refiners can exceed $3 per barrel, while they are closer to $2 in Europe.
The restrictions have also led to an increase in the amount of crude oil that is being sold at sea, as the sellers are struggling to find buyers.
Russia, Iran and Venezuela are responsible for 30% of the crude oil in transit. This is a far greater share than they have exported. It also indicates a slower rate of discharge as traders struggle to position the barrels.
This leads to a market which appears both oversupplied and unusually tight.
This tension is a reflection of a market that is increasingly driven by geopolitics, and by the behavior of opaque stockpilers.
Oil prices will likely remain out of sync until transparency is improved or political risks are reduced.
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(source: Reuters)