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US ends review of data privacy for US Airlines without Penalties
According to a memo seen on Monday, the US 'Transportation Department' has concluded a review conducted during Biden's tenure of?airlines? data privacy practices without imposing any penalties. This is despite complaints from lawmakers that carriers had failed to safeguard or misuse information. USDOT did not comment on Monday but in a memo dated 4 September, it said that they had evaluated the privacy of data for the 10 largest airlines and found "no violation" of the applicable laws or policies. In?March 2024, the then-Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg opened a review on how US Airlines collect and use passengers' information. Senator Ron 'Wyden has urged USDOT addressing privacy concerns. "DOT claims that merely having a policy and training on privacy is enough, despite evidence of privacy violations." Wyden and Shontel brown said in August that the Drug Enforcement Administration was paying airline employees Millions of dollars were spent to get some data on 'Americans. They alleged that a database owned jointly by major US airlines sold passenger records without warrants and court oversight to government agencies such as the IRS. In a memo, the department said that US airlines shouldn't set pricing based on personal data. It reminded airlines that they have a responsibility to "protect?passenger?data, adhere?to published privacy policies and prevent unlawful discrimination when it comes to dynamic pricing practices." Sean Duffy, Transportation Secretary, said last year that he would investigate any personalized pricing. Delta Air Lines denied using AI to set individual prices.
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Manishi Raymondchaudhuri: The thaw in the Sino-Indian relationship will be a major test for economic growth
India wants to move out of China's shadow and improve diplomatic relations. But the more it pushes the more its dependency on China, its wealthier neighbor, becomes apparent. Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi met in New Delhi in December. It was Xi's very first trip to India in seven years. Both leaders agreed to repair the damage caused by the deadly hand-to -hand clashes that occurred in 2020 along their shared, but poorly defined Himalayan border. Since the two Asian giants agreed last year to end their military standoff, there are other signs of warming relations. Since the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, direct flights between Indian cities and Chinese 'cities' have been resumed. Visa services in China are also expanding. These measures are only a first step. Handshakes and plane rides will not solve the problem of long-standing trade dependency and strategic distrust. The economic relationship between the two Asian giants remains profoundly asymmetric. According to the World Bank, China's share in global manufacturing value added was 28% by 2025. This is far greater than India's 3%. India's export situation is also lopsided. China's 16.3% of global merchandise exports by 2025 will be a massively greater share than India's 1.7%. India will import goods from China worth $116 billion dollars more than it exports in 2025. In August of this year, India's deficit was already at $91 billion. It was on course to surpass the record set last year. CAPTIVE SUPPLY CHAINS It's not just that India imports from China more. Many of these imports are essential to Indian industry. The three largest import categories are electrical and electronic equipment (EEE), machinery and chemicals. These goods are used as intermediates by Indian manufacturers. India imports more from China the more it exports. The dilemma is illustrated by smartphones and generic drugs. India has made great progress in expanding pharmaceutical production and assembling electronic devices, but many of the inputs and components needed by both sectors are still sourced from China. This dependence has broad strategic implications. Beijing's introduction of export licensing requirements for seven heavy rare Earths in April 2025, exposed India's automotive manufacturing and defense sectors to vulnerabilities. India's manufacturing problems are not all due to foreign competition. According to the latest Economic Survey, India's R&D spending in 2024 was just 0.64%, which is significantly lower than its?Asian counterparts, partly due to private sector underinvestment. The problem is compounded by the shortage of skilled workers. Foxconn's decision to withdraw Chinese staff from their Indian iPhone factories by 2025 showed how advanced manufacturing is dependent on foreign expertise. INDIA'S FIXES New Delhi is trying to correct the imbalance. India has recently eased restrictions on Chinese foreign direct investments (FDI), allowing them to own up to 10% of Indian companies. The government announced simultaneously that it would expedite the clearance of investment proposals within 60 days in five high-tech areas, provided they were structured as joint ventures and had majority Indian ownership. India's exports to China increased by 40% from April to August. The increase in exports is largely due to industrial machinery, automotive components and printed circuit boards as well as smartphones and other electronic products. The export boom should not be misinterpreted as a fundamental change in the relationship. India's electronic growth is still heavily dependent on Chinese imports. Smartphone manufacturing, India's largest export success story, is still only 18-20% local. The AI boom in Northeast Asia is generating positive spillovers to the subcontinent. Indian firms are picking up sub-components from Chinese tech giants who are facing a surge in hardware demand. This dynamic, however, reinforces the importance of Chinese supply chains. TRUST DEFICIT IS PERSISENT In order for China-bound FDI to reach India and for technology transfer to take place, it is important to answer the question: What does India have to offer? China is not taking up the bait. The obvious answer to this question is 'access to a large, young market with a low-cost labor pool'. Also, New Delhi has various incentives for industrial growth, including tax breaks, payouts linked to production, and capital subsidies. China's pressure to its leading companies, which includes EVs, batteries and solar energy equipment as well as electronic equipment, shows how Beijing protects its most sophisticated capabilities. The 3,800 km (2,400 miles) of disputed border in Himalayas continue to cast a cloud over the relationship. The two countries have agreed to a gradual, multi-year stabilisation plan. Diplomats met in Beijing last August and pledged a "fair settlement that is reasonable for both parties". However, there does not appear to be a resolution imminent. Both governments seem willing to expand economic cooperation for the time being. India's challenge does not just lie in reducing its imports from China. The challenge for India is to use a renewed engagement with China to develop its own domestic capabilities. The relationship between Asia's largest economies until then will be a one-sided affair. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Alaska LNG savings justify billions of investment, developer claims
Alaska LNG's developer claimed that the project would be competitive with US Gulf Coast competitors because it will have access to stranded natural gas and shorter shipping routes into Asia. This is despite some analysts' concerns about the massive infrastructure costs of 'the project. Tim Fitzpatrick said in an email sent to the project developer Glenfarne on Sunday that the cost to ship gas from Alaska's North Slope to Asia would be at least 60% cheaper than the Gulf Coast. The project would transport gas from Alaska's north slope through an 800-mile pipeline, to a plant that exports liquefied gas in southern Alaska. The question is whether the lower shipping costs are worth the billions needed to build infrastructure. The estimated cost for the project is $44,5 billion to $54,5 billion. This translates into?roughly $2 billion to $2.7 million per million tons of LNG capacity (MTPA). This is significantly more than other Gulf Coast projects that have recently been approved. The developer Glenfarne claims that this comparison is inaccurate because it does not include the costs of the pipelines and treatment infrastructure required to bring the North Slope gas stranded to the market. Fitzpatrick stated that the delivery costs for the?Alaska Liquefied Natural Gas project are about $1.4 billion each MTPA. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, US LNG projects have been approved at an average price of $1 billion or less per mtpa. Glenfarne says that the project's competitiveness is best measured in terms of delivered LNG costs, rather than upfront expenditure. Fitzpatrick stated that the company has so far identified customers for 13 millions tons of LNG per year and needs 16,000,000 tons per annum to support project finance. Trump said on Friday that South Korea would help finance the LNG project in Alaska as part of an investment package worth $200 billion for US projects. Seoul, however, quickly indicated that the role of South Korea in the Alaska LNG project was not yet determined.
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US FAA: Boeing 737 MAX software bug poses no safety concern
Federal Aviation Administration'said Friday that a panel of experts determined that a'software glitch in certain Boeing 737 MAX Flight Computers pose no safety concerns, clearing the?way for approval of a broader version?of a bestselling narrow body jet. This decision will remove a long-delayed obstacle to the certification of the MAX 10 – the largest variant in the 737 MAX Family – which had been delayed by years. This should ease the concerns of airlines who fly the MAX 7 which also uses the same software and was certified by FAA in august. The FAA stated that the decision by the Corrective action Review Board?that?met in Seattle on?Friday was based on "pilots retaining full control of?aircraft, and the indications given to the flight crew were clear and unambiguous." The FAA announced earlier this week that it would delay?certification for the MAX 10 until an analysis was completed of the software problem, which could prevent pilots?from?accessing automated guidance during a landing scenario. Aviation officials believe that the MAX 10 could now be certified by the end of this month. Southwest Airlines could have also been affected by the issue, as the MAX 7 aircraft that was just certified uses the same software. The MAX 10 was also ordered by Alaska Airlines, United Airlines, and other large airlines. Jefferies stated in a research report that the MAX '10 can be certified by the end of this year. Boeing has estimated nearly 1,500 MAX 10s are on order. The FAA stated that one software version could increase pilot workload when a pilot "aborts" a landing, then applies power and climbs for another 'landing attempt. A FAA official stated that Boeing would issue a bulletin on how to recognize the situation and what to do in it. The FAA will then issue a Special Information Bulletin about Airworthiness to US airlines and foreign regulators so they are aware of Boeing’s bulletin. While the analysis was in progress, major US airlines chose not to use this version of the software.
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Zimbabwean businessman Chivayo who was close to the ruling elite killed in helicopter crash
Wicknell 'Chivayo', his wife, and other victims were killed in a helicopter crash on Wednesday, according to Emmerson Mnangagwa. Mnangagwa said in a statement to X on Thursday he is "in deep grief and shock", and Kenyan President William Ruto, who posted a different post on the same day, called Chivayo a friend and expressed his sadness at his death. Chivayo, who has cultivated close relationships with Mnangagwa, and other African leaders by posting pictures on social media, also displayed luxury vehicles, designer clothes and lavish gifts. Zimbabwe's The Herald reported that investigations?into this crash are currently underway and a statement detailing the findings will be made in due course. The police did not comment on the cause of the accident, but Paul Nyathi, the spokesperson for the authorities said that DNA tests were being conducted because the bodies had been severely damaged. Chivayo was often cited by critics as an example for a small, elite class who benefited from contracts with the government under Zimbabwe's ZANUPF party. He denied accusations of corruption. Chivayo spent several years in prison after being convicted of money laundering in 2005. He was arrested for?the alleged misuse of a $5.6million advance payment linked to a solar energy project in 2018. But a magistrate struck off the 'case in 2023 citing delays by the prosecutors. Mnangagwa again attracted scrutiny in 2024 after describing his company as Starlink’s exclusive partner in Zimbabwe. This prompted the telecommunications regulator, to clarify that it was only one of many approved resellers.
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Israel's Netanyahu: Flydubai co-pilot underwent radical Islamist endoctrination
Israel's Prime Minister said that the co-pilot who attempted to crash a plane by stabbing the captain had been radicalized and clearly suicidal. The flydubai flight FZ1073, which flew from Dubai to Tel Aviv on Wednesday, was spared disaster after the injured captain managed to open the cockpit door and allow passengers to subdue their attacker. The plane with more than 170 passengers on board was landed at Tabuk Airport in Saudi Arabia by a reserve crew. We know that he was radicalized by islamists. In an interview with Fox News, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that this appears to be what we gather from his personal data. According to two Israeli security officials, Israel's initial assessment is that the copilot, who Israel identified as an Omani, likely acted alone. However, the investigation is still ongoing. Flightradar24, a flight tracking website, reports that the plane plunged more than 14,000 feet during the incident while it was flying from the United Arab Emirates towards Israel. Netanyahu said, "It was obvious that the copilot was suicidal." Netanyahu stated that it appeared likely that the man was planning to bring down the aircraft. He said that "the Islamist traits, the radicalization found in his past, is a pretty good clue." But again, I haven't made any final conclusions. "But that's what we know now," he said. The United Arab Emirates have begun investigations to determine the circumstances and motives, and to determine "whether or not the incident was linked to terrorist activities or purposes or involved any prior planning or directions", according to the UAE's state news agency. ATTACKER IDENTIFIED AN OMANI NATIONAL Yossi Shelley told the Israeli envoy in the UAE that it was still too early to make any conclusions and that no motive had yet been established. A second Israeli official stated that Israel did not receive all of the information requested from Saudi Arabia and that Israeli intelligence services Mossad, and Shin Bet were also investigating the incident. Saudi Arabia's media office has not responded to requests for comment immediately, nor have they made any statements about their investigations. Netanyahu identified the attacker's nationality as Omani. Omani authorities are yet to comment. We have restrictions that state that you cannot have pilots who are from countries without diplomatic relations with Israel. Netanyahu said that it was clear that he had been able to do so. In an interview with Fox News Netanyahu stated that the attacker is being investigated in Saudi Arabia, and that he believes he will be sent to the UAE. When asked if there were any signs of Iranian involvement in the conflict, Netanyahu replied that it was still too early to tell. Israel has not made any official statements about Iranian involvement. Two Israeli security officials claimed that Israel has not yet identified any Iranian involvement. Israel Defence Minister Israel Katz stated on Wednesday that Israel’s preliminary information indicated the co-pilot intended to crash the aircraft, describing him?as a terrorist. Netanyahu, however, only described it as "a serious incident". The permanent Iranian mission at Geneva has not responded to the request for comment. SECURITY FEARS AHEAD OF ISRAELI ELSTION Israel's security was a major issue in the campaigning for the first elections since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023. In February, the US and Israel launched attacks against Iran, in a conflict which quickly spread to the Gulf of Aden and Lebanon where Israel is fighting Iran-backed militant Hezbollah. Both Netanyahu and Indian PM Narendra Modi have described the captain of flight FZ1073, an Indian, Smit Machchhar, as a hero. The Indian Embassy in the UAE reported on X that the pilot was doing well. Israel also praised passengers who subdued the attacker. Yaniv Haun, one of those who incapacitated an attacker, described running to the cockpit when the plane nosedived. "We pulled out the assailant, I pulled out. "We took control after I got him out. I lifted the yoke, steering control, and straightened out the plane a little," he told reporters on his return to Israel.
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Canada fast tracks oil pipeline to diversify economy and divert away from US
Canada will speed up the approval process of a new proposed crude oil export pipeline that would run along its west coast. The project could generate over C$20 billion in GDP annually, according to Prime Minister Mark 'Carney. The pipeline announced in July is an important part of Carney’s plan to diversify the US economy and lessen the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Carney stated that Ottawa will officially list the Pacific Link Pipeline as a?project of national interest', allowing it to proceed through a single regulatory review process at the federal level. Ottawa, he said, aimed to finish the process by September 1, 2020. He told reporters at Fort McMurray in Alberta, the hub of the oil sands sector, that a pipeline to the West Coast was part of his mission to transform the economy and double non-U.S. imports within the next decade. Ottawa claims that the 1 million barrels a day project will create 140.000 jobs, generate more than C$20 billion per year in GDP and C$100 Billion in government revenues by 2060. Canada currently has just one east-west oil export pipeline in Canada, the 890,000-barrel-per-day Trans Mountain pipeline. The pipeline expansion was completed in 2024. However, it is already operating at full capacity. Since years, Canada exports more than 90% its crude oil to the United States through pipelines. A new oil export pipe could make Canada the world's largest energy supplier, as Asia’s top importing countries look for oil outside of the Middle East following the Iran conflict. Trans Mountain Corp, a government-owned company, will build the pipeline in conjunction with Pembina Pipeline Corp. Alberta estimates that it will cost between C$35,2 billion and C$43.7billion. The federal government will own the majority of the shares, followed by the government of Alberta. The federal government and the government?of Alberta will own a majority of the shares. Environmentalists and Indigenous groups have opposed previous oil pipeline projects across Canada. This has led to the cancellation of certain projects, and cost overruns or construction delays in others.
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Oil giants rush in to help Italy's Meloni reduce energy costs by introducing fuel price caps
Kuwait's energy firm,?Q8, will cap the price of Italian petrol at the pump for a month beginning October 1. This follows similar commitments by Italy's Eni as well as?Azerbaijan SOCAR. Market analysts have interpreted the moves as an attempt to curry favor with Rome's government and discourage it from imposing windfall taxes on energy company profits. This was something that Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, and other prominent politicians had proposed. Giorgia Melons is scrambling for resources to help families, firms and businesses cope with the rising energy costs. She's preparing to present her government's budget 2027 in October. It will be her last presentation before an upcoming election next year. Q8. Italy said in a press release that its cap would generate "tangible" benefits for motorists but didn't specify the price. Meloni, in a press release, said: "I'd like to thank Kuwait as well as the group operating the Q8 stations that operate in Italy for listening to the Italian government's request to energy companies about capping fuel prices." SOCAR and Eni have capped diesel prices at EUR2.19 ($2.48) a litre since Monday, while petrol is priced at EUR1.99 per litre. Equita and Intermonte, two brokers who provide brokerage services to energy companies and their clients, wrote in client reports that this initiative would reduce the risk of new taxation on windfall profits. Germany, Spain Portugal, Italy and Poland are calling for a windfall tax to be imposed on energy companies across the EU. They warn that oil prices are rising at a rapid rate, fueling voter unrest over the cost of living. Giorgetti is not ruling out the introduction of a domestic windfall-tax rather than waiting on a joint initiative. The National?Consumers' Union of Italy welcomed Q8's decision, stating that about half of Italy’s network of fuel stations will now be imposing price caps. The consumer group stated that the challenge is to "prevent the abuse" of dominant market positions, and to ensure that independent fuel stations are not squeezed out or forced to shut down. According to data from the industry ministry, price caps have had little impact on lowering fuel prices. The self-service price for petrol was EUR2.126 per 1 litre, down from EUR2.159 the previous day. Diesel prices were also slightly lower, at EUR2.335, compared to EUR2.377. The price of petrol on the motorway network was EUR2.180 and diesel EUR2.383.
What can oil prices tell you about the market? Not a lot: Bousso
The global oil market is experiencing a series of price spikes due to geopolitical tensions and the opaque stockpiling. Western sanctions and tightening Western sanction are also causing traders to be in the dark.
There are questions about the accuracy of prices reflecting physical fundamentals due to the growing influence of unpredictable external forces on one of world's most liquid and largest commodity markets.
In fact, it appears that the global oil market is struggling to find a balance between supply and demand. The International Energy Agency predicts that oil production will exceed demand this year by 3.7 million barrels per day, which is more than 3%.
Prices tell a very different story. Brent crude oil prices, which are the benchmark for all other crude oils, have fluctuated in recent weeks. However they remain stable at over $65 per barrel.
The forward curve also shows a steep backwardation. This is a characteristic structure that's usually associated with a tight supply.
What is the explanation? The uncertainty surrounding events in the Middle East played a part over the last few weeks. Oil prices have risen to $70 per barrel due to the risk of U.S. strikes against Iran and the potential for the conflict to spread across the entire region.
The CBOE crude volatility index is at its highest level since last June's 12-day Israel-Iran conflict.
U.S. and Iranian tensions will only be a short-term issue, unless they spiral out of control. However, other long-term trends could obscure the picture of supply and demand for many months.
STOCKS ARE BUILDING
Stocks are increasing globally, which is a sign that the market is oversupplied. Geopolitical fragmentation creates regional divergences which complicates this simple equation.
Morgan Stanley predicts that global crude stocks will rise by 730 million barrels in this year, or 520 million barrels. According to ROI estimates, the bulk of the stockpile was in China. The country has placed around 800,000 barrels per day into storage during the last year. This figure indicates an increase of over 300 million barrels by 2025.
China's exact crude reserves and storage capacity are still unclear. The strategic reserves of China are largely hidden underground, beyond the reach of satellites. This makes it difficult to know how much is actually in storage and how much can be added.
China's buying strategy is also uncertain. Beijing has a tendency to reduce its purchases when prices increase, so the stockpiling may have been slowed after recent price increases near $70 per barrel. The market doesn't know.
This opacity is a major blind spot for the oil markets and has changed the way that rising storage levels are interpreted.
In the past, oil prices were closely tied to changes in inventories of countries that are members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, notably those from America and Europe which have long been dominant forces on global demand. A rise in stockpiles was generally considered negative.
Martijn Rats is an analyst with Morgan Stanley. He says that the buildup of visible OECD inventory signals a negative price signal, but the Chinese stockbuildups are perceived as a bullish sign, indicating heightened demand, which offsets this.
This could explain why the crude oil prices haven't dropped despite an increase in global inventories.
CONFUSION GEOPOLITIQUE
Western sanctions against several oil-producing countries are complicating the picture.
Kpler reports that China, India, and Turkey are importing 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of Venezuelan, Iranian, and Russian crude. This is expected to increase to 4.5 million by 2025. This picture is changing following the ban imposed by the European Union, which took effect on 21 January, on imports from?fuels refined using Russian crude and President Donald Trump increasing pressure on India to reduce Russian oil purchases.
India has cut its Russian crude imports by about 1 million barrels per day this year. This is down from 1.6 millions bpd a decade ago. According to Trump, India also promised to reduce further purchases.
These changes are forcing market adjustments. Western restrictions have boosted the demand for barrels that are not sanctioned and for tankers that comply with regulations. This has increased costs for refiners in Asia because of limited production.
Since early January, Asian refinery margins are smaller than those of Europe. The former averages around $6 per barrel this year while the latter is $9. The main reason for this difference is logistics costs.
Keshav Lhiya is the CEO of HiLo Analytics. He said that freight was a significant regional differentiator in 2018.
According to LSEG, freight rates for a VLCC sailing from the 'Middle East' or?West Africa to Asia has risen by nearly 150% in the past year.
Shipping costs for Asian refiners can exceed $3 per barrel, while they are closer to $2 in Europe.
The restrictions have also led to an increase in the amount of crude oil that is being sold at sea, as the sellers are struggling to find buyers.
Russia, Iran and Venezuela are responsible for 30% of the crude oil in transit. This is a far greater share than they have exported. It also indicates a slower rate of discharge as traders struggle to position the barrels.
This leads to a market which appears both oversupplied and unusually tight.
This tension is a reflection of a market that is increasingly driven by geopolitics, and by the behavior of opaque stockpilers.
Oil prices will likely remain out of sync until transparency is improved or political risks are reduced.
You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)