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Motiva: Exxon prepares East Texas refineries to weather storm, say sources
People familiar with the plant operations reported that Motiva Enterprises and Exxon Mobil Corp were preparing their East Texas refineries to withstand high winds and flooding in anticipation of a tropical storm approaching 'the U.S. Gulf Coast. Sources said that Exxon and Motiva have not cut production at their refineries in Port Arthur, Texas, and Beaumont, Texas, respectively. However, they have secured loose equipment and items which can be blown away by high winds, or drifted by flood waters, should the storm develop and make landfall Tuesday. Exxon spokesperson Kelly Davila stated on Monday that the company was closely monitoring the storm and both Beaumont, Texas and Baytown, Texas refineries were operating normally. A spokesperson for Motiva did not respond to a comment request. Freeport LNG and Cheniere Energy said that they were closely monitoring the storm. Cheniere said that it would modify its operations if needed, but so far there has been no impact to production. Cheniere operates two liquefied gas plants in Texas, one at Sabine Pass near the Texas-Louisiana boundary and another at Corpus Christi. Freeport LNG is located in Freeport, Texas. The U.S. National Hurricane Center predicts that Tropical Depression 5 will become Tropical Storm Edouard by Tuesday, when it reaches Port Arthur. According to the Hurricane Center, Edouard is not expected to reach hurricane-like strength. It will produce winds of no more than 58 mph (93 kph). Sources claim that Exxon activated their?Incident Command System" on Monday afternoon. Valero Energy Corp has ?not modified operations at its 235,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) Port Arthur refinery, sources at the refinery said. Motiva Port Arthur is the largest refinery in the United States with a capacity to process crude oil of 656 400 bpd. Exxon Beaumont can take in 612,000 barrels per day, while Baytown, located on the east side Houston, has a capacity of 564,000.
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Ares raises the largest amount of money for its unit, $4 billion, to benefit Japan Logistics Fund
Ares Management is a U.S. investment firm. On?Tuesday, its real estate division raised $612 billion yen for its Japan Logistics Development Fund, the largest closed-end institutional fundraising to date. Ares announced in a Tuesday statement that the fund, 'Japan -Logistics Development Partners V LP', had reached its hard cap (maximum target) and was nearly 50% bigger than its predecessor for 2021. Ares stated that the fund would primarily invest in modernizing logistics in Japan's major metropolitan markets, such as Greater Tokyo, Greater Osaka, and Nagoya. The real estate services company CBRE has projected that the rents of large multi-tenant logistic facilities in Japan's four major metropolitan areas would increase by 2027 as the demand for modern warehouse space in Japan grows. According to Ares' statement, the fund had attracted money from pension funds and sovereign wealth funds as well as insurers, financial institutions, and other large investors in North America, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. Ares stated that Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), which has backed each Japan logistics fund launched since 2011, is the cornerstone investor and has committed 150 billion yen to the fund. Gilles Chow is the managing director and head of real estate Asia Pacific for CPP Investments. Ares stated that the fund had a total investment capacity of 1.7 trillion yen and was already invested in projects worth 450 billion yen. Marq Logistics will operate and develop the assets. Marq managed about 120 million square foot (11 million sq m) in Japan as of June 30, according to Ares. According to a statement from the group, Ares Real Estate had assets worth about $121 billion and Ares Management more than $671.
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Sources say that activist investor Elliott owns Air Liquide and is pushing for change.
Sources familiar with the situation say that activist investor Elliott Investment Management has built a stake in Air Liquide, and they are urging it to improve its margins. Elliott has been working with the company since a few months and is encouraging management to improve to "better compete" with competitors in the industrial gas sector, according to the sources. Air Liquide, based in Paris, has a market value of approximately EUR108 billion. It was not possible to?determine the size of Elliott’s?stake. Elliott refused to comment, while Air Liquide didn't respond to a comment request. Air Liquide is a competitor of Linde and Air Products and Chemicals. Industry analysts have said that the margin gap between Air Liquide and Linde increased in recent years, indicating Linde's successful operational optimization plan. Analysts said that the margin gap between Air Liquide and Linde is currently 9 points. They added that they expect it to stay at this level for some time. Air Liquide is holding an analyst meeting later this year. Industry analysts are wondering if the company will announce share buybacks. This could be a good thing for the company.
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The US announces a sharply reduced vehicle fuel efficiency requirement
Sean Duffy, Secretary of Transportation, said that the Trump administration would'soon' announce a sharply lowered vehicle fuel economy standard, reversing an effort by the previous administration to compel automakers to produce more fuel-efficient vehicles. The federal government under Republican President Donald Trump hasn't released the final standard. However, automakers anticipate it will be similar to the December proposal by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. The proposal was to reduce the fleetwide average fuel economy from 50.4 miles/gallon (21,4 km/liter) under Democratic President Joe Biden to 34.5 miles/gallon (14.7km/liter) by 2031. Duffy, speaking at an event in Michigan, said: "We're about to announce a "commonsense fuel efficiency standard" because we want Detroit car manufacturers to build cars Americans want to purchase -- not cars Democrats want Washington to manufacture." Biden was focused on reducing U.S. greenhouse gases and fossil fuel usage, accelerating the transition to clean energy, and making the U.S. The United States is a leader in the field of?clean energy technology and manufacturing. NHTSA proposed in December to retroactively reduce the fuel economy standard for 2022 and then raise it by 0.25%-0.5% annually until 2031. Biden increased the required fuel efficiency of cars by 8% per year for model years 2024-2025, 10% per year for 2026 and then 2% each year from 2027-2031. The Trump administration has retroactively changed the fuel standard to 2022 to make it easier for automakers to meet future standards. Biden's rules aimed to encourage automakers to build more electric vehicles to meet rising fuel efficiency standards. NHTSA estimates that its proposal will reduce the cost of new vehicles by $930 per vehicle. It would, however, increase fuel consumption and spending by $185 billion by 2050. Carbon dioxide emissions would also rise by 5%. Congress has decided to stop collecting penalties in 2025 for failure to meet fuel economization standards. This will save automakers hundreds of millions 'of dollars and end $7,500 tax incentives for consumers buying EVs. The law also removed California's authority for 2035 to ban gasoline-powered cars. This is a decision that the state has challenged.
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GLP Japan raises $3.76 billion to build logistics centers, Nikkei reports
The Nikkei reported that GLP - Japan has raised 600 billion dollars ($3.76 billion) to create a fund for building logistics centers. This is a result of an influx in overseas capital. GLP Japan is a Japanese subsidiary of Singapore-based logistics firm GLP. The?Tokyo GLP Japan fund's investments, including borrowings, will total 1.7 trillion yen. This makes it the largest real estate fund in the country, according to?Nikkei. The report stated that the majority of investors are from outside Japan. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board allocated 150 billion yen. The funds raised are expected to be used for the construction and renovation of up to 40 large facilities across Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka. The report said that cold-storage facilities will be complemented by e-commerce-ready facilities. GLP was unable to respond immediately to a comment request outside of 'normal business hours. Nikkei reported that institutional investors in Japan, Middle East pension funds, Asian government-backed funds, and US and European pension funds will also provide support.
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Sweden orders French warships to strengthen its defense
During a ceremony 'in Stockholm - on Monday - the Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristinsson and French President Emmanuel Macron signed an order for four Naval Group Frigates. Sweden, NATO's new member, is rushing to increase its military power after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 forced it to abandon its long held?policies of neutrality. European governments have, more generally, increased their defence spending as a'response' to the pressures of U.S. president Donald Trump. They are also less confident that they can rely on U.S. assistance. Macron said that "France and Sweden in the 'European Union' and NATO demonstrate that European sovereignty is built together." He said that the order from Sweden "strengthens industrial and technological base of European defence in a time when Europeans are taking greater responsibility for their security and consolidating NATO's "European pillar." In May, Sweden announced that it would "order" the vessels from the French company as part of a $4 billion contract which will triple its air defence capability. The first of the four new ships, which will be Sweden's largest ship, is expected to be delivered by 2030.
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Sweden inks French war ship order
Sweden's Defence Material Administration?signed an?order?for four Naval Group navy frigates?on Monday during a ceremony in Stockholm - attended by French President Emmanuel Macron, and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristiersson. In May, Sweden announced that it had ordered the vessels in a $4-billion deal with?the French firm. This will?triple its air defence capability in the face of security threats on the Baltic Sea. Sweden, NATO's new?member, has been rushing to?upgrade its military in the wake of Russia?s invasion of Ukraine. The first of four new frigates - which will be the largest ships in the Swedish navy - is expected to be delivered by 2030. The deal comes at a moment when France and Sweden are deepening defence ties. They want to push for greater 'European military independence', as doubts about the commitment of U.S. President Donald Trump -to Europe- have prompted governments on the continent to reconsider their dependence on American weapons and security guarantees.
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School head: Last-minute flood warnings saved more than 900 Nepalese students
Last Wednesday, Headmaster Rajendra Dawadi, was at his school in Bidur, Nepal, when his accountant entered and shouted: "The flooding is coming!" The flood is coming, the flood is coming! Teachers at Tribhuvan Trishuli secondary school began to receive panicked calls from family and friends. A roaring wave mud water had already made its way upstream through the valley, flattening whole towns. The accountant received a phone call from a family member in Rasuwa. Rasuwa was the first to be hit, and had only 14 minutes to evacuate. This decision saved both students and teachers lives. The school was rebuilt in Nepal after the devastating 2015 earthquake, which killed 9,000 people. It is located on a peninsula, wedged between the Trishuli River and a Hydropower Canal. In an interview, Dawadi said that "we immediately said: stop the class and ring the bell." The school is no more and the former site of its location lies within the riverbed. A PANICKED Escape At the time of the initial warning, over?900 students were present on campus. Dawadi claimed that he had instructed buses carrying more students towards the school to move to safer grounds and began to evacuate the building. Dawadi reported that at least one fainted as chaos spread. Motorbikes were used by parents, teachers and students to collect their children. Some were transported to safety by bus, while others ran up higher or climbed to safety. The 60,000-person town was flooded by the time the final?bus had crossed the nearby bridge over the river, approximately 14 minutes later. Dawadi reported that the old bridge collapsed as "our bus crossed over the new bridge". Headmaster Dawadi, who was a student at this school before becoming its 'headmaster', now wants authorities to rebuild it in a secure location as quickly as possible. Only God can do this Many parents credit Headmaster Dawadi for saving their children. "He was a god. He gave my daughter, and many other children's lives. "Only God can do it," said Man Maya Tamang (50), who thought initially that she had lost Sushmita. Many others in Bidur were not warned until it was too late. Dawadi reported that at least one staff member?and mother of the school accountant are missing. The accountant was able to take his father uphill, but when he returned to get his mother the house had been swept away. Dawadi claimed that he managed to get his father up the hill, but his house was destroyed when he returned with his mother.
What can oil prices tell you about the market? Not a lot: Bousso
The global oil market is experiencing a series of price spikes due to geopolitical tensions and the opaque stockpiling. Western sanctions and tightening Western sanction are also causing traders to be in the dark.
There are questions about the accuracy of prices reflecting physical fundamentals due to the growing influence of unpredictable external forces on one of world's most liquid and largest commodity markets.
In fact, it appears that the global oil market is struggling to find a balance between supply and demand. The International Energy Agency predicts that oil production will exceed demand this year by 3.7 million barrels per day, which is more than 3%.
Prices tell a very different story. Brent crude oil prices, which are the benchmark for all other crude oils, have fluctuated in recent weeks. However they remain stable at over $65 per barrel.
The forward curve also shows a steep backwardation. This is a characteristic structure that's usually associated with a tight supply.
What is the explanation? The uncertainty surrounding events in the Middle East played a part over the last few weeks. Oil prices have risen to $70 per barrel due to the risk of U.S. strikes against Iran and the potential for the conflict to spread across the entire region.
The CBOE crude volatility index is at its highest level since last June's 12-day Israel-Iran conflict.
U.S. and Iranian tensions will only be a short-term issue, unless they spiral out of control. However, other long-term trends could obscure the picture of supply and demand for many months.
STOCKS ARE BUILDING
Stocks are increasing globally, which is a sign that the market is oversupplied. Geopolitical fragmentation creates regional divergences which complicates this simple equation.
Morgan Stanley predicts that global crude stocks will rise by 730 million barrels in this year, or 520 million barrels. According to ROI estimates, the bulk of the stockpile was in China. The country has placed around 800,000 barrels per day into storage during the last year. This figure indicates an increase of over 300 million barrels by 2025.
China's exact crude reserves and storage capacity are still unclear. The strategic reserves of China are largely hidden underground, beyond the reach of satellites. This makes it difficult to know how much is actually in storage and how much can be added.
China's buying strategy is also uncertain. Beijing has a tendency to reduce its purchases when prices increase, so the stockpiling may have been slowed after recent price increases near $70 per barrel. The market doesn't know.
This opacity is a major blind spot for the oil markets and has changed the way that rising storage levels are interpreted.
In the past, oil prices were closely tied to changes in inventories of countries that are members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, notably those from America and Europe which have long been dominant forces on global demand. A rise in stockpiles was generally considered negative.
Martijn Rats is an analyst with Morgan Stanley. He says that the buildup of visible OECD inventory signals a negative price signal, but the Chinese stockbuildups are perceived as a bullish sign, indicating heightened demand, which offsets this.
This could explain why the crude oil prices haven't dropped despite an increase in global inventories.
CONFUSION GEOPOLITIQUE
Western sanctions against several oil-producing countries are complicating the picture.
Kpler reports that China, India, and Turkey are importing 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of Venezuelan, Iranian, and Russian crude. This is expected to increase to 4.5 million by 2025. This picture is changing following the ban imposed by the European Union, which took effect on 21 January, on imports from?fuels refined using Russian crude and President Donald Trump increasing pressure on India to reduce Russian oil purchases.
India has cut its Russian crude imports by about 1 million barrels per day this year. This is down from 1.6 millions bpd a decade ago. According to Trump, India also promised to reduce further purchases.
These changes are forcing market adjustments. Western restrictions have boosted the demand for barrels that are not sanctioned and for tankers that comply with regulations. This has increased costs for refiners in Asia because of limited production.
Since early January, Asian refinery margins are smaller than those of Europe. The former averages around $6 per barrel this year while the latter is $9. The main reason for this difference is logistics costs.
Keshav Lhiya is the CEO of HiLo Analytics. He said that freight was a significant regional differentiator in 2018.
According to LSEG, freight rates for a VLCC sailing from the 'Middle East' or?West Africa to Asia has risen by nearly 150% in the past year.
Shipping costs for Asian refiners can exceed $3 per barrel, while they are closer to $2 in Europe.
The restrictions have also led to an increase in the amount of crude oil that is being sold at sea, as the sellers are struggling to find buyers.
Russia, Iran and Venezuela are responsible for 30% of the crude oil in transit. This is a far greater share than they have exported. It also indicates a slower rate of discharge as traders struggle to position the barrels.
This leads to a market which appears both oversupplied and unusually tight.
This tension is a reflection of a market that is increasingly driven by geopolitics, and by the behavior of opaque stockpilers.
Oil prices will likely remain out of sync until transparency is improved or political risks are reduced.
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(source: Reuters)