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IFM will not extend its offer for Atlas Arteria past June 30
IFM Global Infrastructure announced on Wednesday that its offer to purchase Australia's Atlas Arteria (valued at A$7.40 billion) ($5.23billion), which values the toll road operator a A$7.40 billion ($5.23billion), would not be extended past June 25. Diamond Infraco 1 of IFM added that it was not certain that the company would purchase any additional?shares after the closing date. The toll road operator, on Monday, called for its shareholders to reject IFM’s "best and final" offer after the company raised it to A$5.10 from A$4.75. It said that the 'bid is still below value. The revised offer represented a 17.8% increase over Atlas's closing prices as of 24 April. IFM's initial A$4.75 offer per share made days later valued the company at A$6.89 Billion. Atlas, however, rejected the offer back in May. They said that the "highly-conditional" offer was significantly undervaluing it. As of 0350 GMT, the?company shares?were down by 0.1% to A$5.105. The benchmark index rose 0.5%. Atlas 'Arteria' is a global operator, owner and developer of tollroads, with a portfolio of five assets in France, Germany and the United States.
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Australia relaxes travel advice for the Gulf to boost Middle Eastern airlines
Australia relaxed its travel advice on Wednesday for a number of?Middle?Eastern nations, allowing Australians the freedom to transit and travel through the largest Gulf air hubs while being insured. Penny Wong, Foreign Minister, said that the "do-not-travel" warning for the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Bahrain and Israel, had been removed after the U.S. reached an interim agreement with Iran to end the war. She stated that the advisory has moved to "reconsider the need to travel" in these countries as the security situation can still rapidly deteriorate with little notice. Gulf airlines will benefit from the removal of "do no travel" advice. Cirium, a data-driven aviation firm, says that Gulf airlines carried more than half the passengers who flew from Europe to Australia and New Zealand, as well as Pacific Islands, before the war broke out in late February. Australians who are concerned about missiles and drones as well as schedule disruptions and lack of insurance have chosen to fly on carriers such Qantas Airways and Singapore Airlines, or Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways which transited through Asia. This has led to higher airfares. Flight Centre Travel Group reported on Wednesday that many travellers who had booked forward to Europe via the Middle East, but cancelled or changed their plans because of the government's warnings that Australians were deprived of insurance coverage. Emirates announced last week that it will offer incentives to win back travelers worried about the prolonged Iran war. The airline is focusing more on customer service and reliability than on lower fares due to the high oil prices. After the start of the Iran war, jet fuel prices have more than doubled, leading to many airlines increasing ticket prices, cutting capacity, and adding fuel surcharges. The price increases have now retreated as the prospects of a peace agreement improved. Singapore jet fuel On Tuesday, oil traded at around $116 per barrel. This is higher than the price before the conflict of about $80. However, it's still less than half the high of March 30, which was $242. Oil prices fell?more? than 2% on Tuesday to a new three-month 'low, after falling?nearly 5% the day before following news of the U.S. Iran deal. Industry officials, however, say that it will take several months for Middle East oil and natural gas production to recover fully. Reporting by Renju José in Sydney and Julie Zhu, Hong Kong. Editing by Anne Marie Roantree & Jamie Freed.
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Qantas announces first route for ultra long-haul Project Sunrise flights
Qantas Airways will announce the first destination on Wednesday for the longest non-stop flight in the world?from east Australia to London or New York. This is a major breakthrough after years of delays. Since 2017, "Project Sunrise", a plan to offer direct flights on modified Airbus long haul jets to London hubs in the Middle East and Asia, has been under development. It is expected to be operational by the end next year. It is hoped to reduce the five-day journey on the "Kangaroo Route", which used to take place from Sydney to London, to a maximum of 22 hours depending on wind and route. The journey now takes between 24 and 25 hours via Singapore. The airline has not yet announced which destination will be first. Qantas currently flies to New York from Sydney via Auckland. The project is considered a "major bet" by the Australian airline, who has spent billions of dollars on changing fleets, cabins, and researching the health effects associated with a single round-the-world flight. It must convince passengers to pay extra to avoid long layovers while minimizing the discomfort of long flights. John Strickland, aviation analyst, said: "What they're selling is time. They need to charge a premium for all cabins, especially premium economy and business class." Qantas' Project Sunrise is named after its double sunrise endurance flight during World War Two. The airline stayed airborne long enough to witness two sunrises. The airline has estimated that the project will add A$400,000,000 ($282,68 million) to its earnings every year. Qantas CEO Vanessa Hudson stated in February that the project was based on an assumption that non-stop flights would attract ticket prices 20% higher than alternatives with one-stop stops in premium cabins. Analysts say that high energy prices due to the Gulf conflict has raised the bar on breaking even. 'POSITIVE MARKET' In a note published in April, Jefferies analysts stated that passengers will continue to prefer direct flights to Europe via Perth. They also said they would switch from Middle Eastern hubs to Asian hubs until 2027. They said: "We expect Project Sunrise flights from London to have a good market." Gulf carriers, like Emirates, who redrew aviation maps around their hubs have said they will defend their markets. The Australian government lifted its "do-not-travel" warning against Gulf hubs on Wednesday, which had been in place for months and had invalidated most travel insurance policies. Qantas will present the economics behind the new direct flights and its customized cabins at an event on Wednesday in Toulouse. Airbus won Project Sunrise after an intense competition with Boeing's new 777X aircraft in 2019. It conducted the first test flight of one of twelve?modified A350 1000ULR aircraft ordered by Qantas earlier this month. The planes with 238 seats have an additional rear-centre tank that helps increase the range from 1,852 km to 10,000 nautical mile. Flights are so long that much fuel is used to carry the weight. The first plane is expected to arrive in April 2027. This is five years after the original date due to issues with the aerospace supply chain and COVID-19. This month, it was reported that Qantas has been in discussions to purchase 20 additional wide-body aircraft. The smaller A350-900 and more Boeing 787s are being considered. $1 = 1.4150 Australian Dollars (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Tim Hepher)
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Washington Airport will be closed for the majority of the Fourth of July
Ronald Reagan 'Washington National Airport is closing on July 4 at noon EST (1600 GMT), due to 250th U.S. Anniversary events in the Capital Region, including a flyover by the military. This was announced Tuesday by the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority. The airport in Virginia, near Washington, D.C., is also scheduled to close for several hours for rehearsals on the 3rd of July. The closures will result in hundreds of cancelled flights. Airport?is anticipated to reopen?early?on?July 5. United Airlines has said that it "planned for this and has scheduled accordingly to ensure there is no customer impact." Washington Airport faced temporary flight restrictions during the weekend of the 250th Anniversary of the U.S. Founding, including the Ultimate Fighting Championship bouts held at the White House. The MWAA has said that the airport may be affected by a downtown flyover or other aerial displays, such as parachute or fireworks jumps, on other dates as well. These include 'June 24 to '25, June 28 and July 10, as well as August 22 to 23.
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Container imports at the busiest US port soar in May as buyers attempt to avoid rising fuel prices
Imports into the 'busiest U.S. port for containers in Los Angeles?hit the second-highest levels in history in May as retailers rushed to get products such as plastic school supplies in before July 1, when cargo ship owners will start recovering higher fuel costs due to the Iran War. The Iran War has caused shipping to be snarled in the Middle East, and crude oil and derivatives are less available. This is affecting the production of plastics and other goods. Marine fuel prices have increased and many?retailers, manufacturers and other businesses are concerned that certain raw materials or factory goods may become too scarce to ship. Gene Seroka, Port of Los Angeles' Executive Director, said that companies are considering energy costs, tariffs and geopolitical risk when making sourcing and shipping choices. Seroka stated that "when they find a window for stability, many move quickly to take full advantage of it, speeding up cargo through the supply chains while conditions permit." In May, the?Port Los Angeles handled an estimated 840.165 20-foot equal units (TEUs). This included 449.370 TEUs of imports. Data showed that this was a 26% rise from the previous year, when tariffs were lowered on U.S. imported goods and caused shippers' brakes to be slammed. A TEU is the standard volume measurement for ocean cargo. The standard shipping container measures 40 feet. Seroka said that June and July volumes will be higher than May. He added that it would take several months to normalize supply chains after the Iran War hostilities end and the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping chokepoint, reopens. Fuel prices are rising. The price of bunker fuel in 20 ports around the world nearly doubled to $1,053 by March compared to the price just before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. However, the price then dropped back down on the prospect of a ceasefire agreement. Starting July '1, vessel operators will begin to claw back the higher fuel costs through contracts covering most of the cargo moving. The 10% global Section 122 Tariffs may expire by the end of July, and Trump's administration has proposed new import tariffs up to 12.5% for 60 countries based on allegations of forced labour. The Port of Los Angeles reported its results on Tuesday after the supply chain technology company Descartes Systems Group announced that total?U.S. Container import volumes increased 11.5% from a year ago in May. According to Descartes Datamyne, imports of plastic products that fall under the globally recognized Harmonized System Code 39, which is a standardized code, increased by 26%, to 251,706 TEUS. This included an 87% rise in the imports of office supplies or school supplies, and a 57% rise in plastic tableware. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Lisa Baertlein)
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Cheniere Energy CFO: Developing countries won't fully entrust their energy security to US
Zach Davis, Chief Financial Officer of Cheniere Energy, stated on Tuesday that the company does not believe developing countries will rely solely on America for their energy needs. Davis said that he did not expect many countries in the developing world to rely on the U.S. for their energy security, particularly at this time. His comments came at a time when details were emerging about an interim agreement to 'end the U.S. - Iran war and reopen Strait of Hormuz. This key waterway 'carried around 20% of the global oil and natural gas supply before it was closed off by the conflict earlier this year. Qatar's LNG imports have been seriously disrupted by the conflict, as they flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Davis stated that 'diversification in liquefied gas supply is crucial for emerging economies. It helps to ensure affordability and reduce risks of supply. He said that Qatar played an important role on the global LNG market and Cheniere would be happy to see it return in full, since this would increase supply diversity. Qatar's LNG, which is usually priced in relation to Brent crude prices, offers buyers more options than U.S. cargoes, which are tied to Henry Hub gas?prices. He added that Cheniere, which is the U.S.'s largest LNG exporter and the second-largest LNG producer in the world, prioritizes long-term growth of demand over the short-term benefits from a?increased LNG price. Davis stated that "creating demand is more critical than capturing margins, given the current price environment." He said that the company is still pursuing a disciplined expansion strategy and focuses on shareholder value rather than size. Cheniere, which has the financial capability to fund a $20-billion expansion, has chosen a smaller, approximately $6-billion?expansion for its Sabine Pass facility. Davis stated, "We are focused on creating value and not on chasing after the title of world's biggest LNG company." Reporting by Curtis Williams, Houston; Editing and production by Chizu Nomiyama, Nathan Crooks, and Aurora Ellis
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Tropical Cyclone One could form off the Texas coast and cause dangerous flash floods
The United States has announced that a 'potential tropical cyclone one' has formed near the Texas coast. In a Tuesday warning, the National Hurricane Center warned of dangerous flash floods and heavy rain along the energy corridor which includes offshore drilling and refinery assets. If it becomes stronger and the first named hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, the potential tropical cyclone Arthur -- located about 65 miles (105 kilometers) southwest of Corpus Christi - would be given the name Arthur. The maximum sustained wind speed is 30 miles per hour. Tropical storm watches have been issued along the northwestern Gulf Coast, from Sargent, Texas to Morgan City in Louisiana. The NHC stated that the disturbance would move off the Texas coast either tonight or Wednesday morning, then move along the upper Texas coast later in the day. It will then move inland to extreme eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana by late Wednesday or early early Thursday. The storm system is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches in rainfall, with some isolated totals of up to 12 inches. This will occur along the Texas coastline through Louisiana and beyond. The NHC warned that a dangerous storm surge might 'flood areas normally dry. On Monday, Governor Greg Abbott declared a state of disaster in 101 counties. Heavy?rains may dampen the excitement surrounding the upcoming?FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and DR Congo, which will be played on Houston's streets on Wednesday. They could also have an impact on energy assets in the region. Earth Science Associates COO Tony Dupont said that so far the storm "doesn’t look too powerful." Andrew Polk, weather risk manager for data consultancy DTN said that major oil production sites in the Gulf are outside the forecast track of tropical storm force wind. He said that there may be disruptions due to the impact of helicopter operations, which could disrupt and delay the crew change due to winds and thunderstorms caused by Potential Tropical Cyclone One. He continued by saying that "the wave impacts will primarily disrupt operations on the water with lift boats or scuba diving operations", adding that the main focus of the system would be the total rainfall amount expected along the Texas coast and Louisiana coastline. In March, the federal offshore area of the U.S. Gulf of America produced approximately 2?million crude barrels per day. This accounted for 14% of U.S. total crude production. Shell, BP and Chevron are the biggest deepwater operators. Around half of the total U.S. refinery capacity of 18,4?million barrels a day is located in the Gulf Coast region, which runs from Corpus Christi up to Mississippi River. The Motiva Enterprises Port Arthur, Texas plant owned by Saudi Aramco has a daily throughput of?730,000 barrels. The other major Gulf Coast refineries are Marathon Petroleum's Galveston Bay facility, ExxonMobil Beaumont, Baytown and ExxonMobil Baton Rouge. Cheniere, Venture Global and other LNG giants have large liquefaction plants along the coast. Reporting by Ashitha Shivprasad from Bengaluru, and Sheila Dang from Houston; Writing and editing by Chizu Nomiyama & Aurora Ellis.
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BYD, a Chinese battery manufacturer, increases production in Brazil
BYD, the Chinese electric carmaker, is increasing battery production in Brazil. A senior executive said that BYD was investing about $100 million into energy storage systems for Brazil's national grid. In a recent interview, Alexandre Baldy said that the expansion was part of a larger push to reach a 50% domestic content for its Brazilian-made vehicles by 2027. Baldy stated that "we are localizing" so we can become a Brazilian producer. Battery is another item that's important. In order to meet government demands and reduce its tax burden, BYD has increased local sourcing in its Bahia plant. The company aims to become the top-selling auto brand in Brazil by 2030. BYD already ranks among the top five car brands in Brazil. The launch of the passenger car battery production is part of a plan to invest $1.08 billion in its flagship factory in Camacari in Bahia. BYD will invest between 50 and 60 millions reais in order to expand the line that produces bus batteries. The company is also planning to invest up to 500 million reais (98 million dollars) in a production line for its Battery Energy Storage System, which stores electricity for the grid. This will be done in advance of the December auction for industrial-scale batteries. BYD's BESS units are seen as a key solution to the crisis that has been affecting solar and wind generators in Brazil. These companies have suffered heavy losses and stopped investments due to the fact that the national grid could not absorb their output during peak hours. Baldy stated that "this truly opens up a new segment for batteries." BYD must decide within 90 days whether to use its?BESS investment for a new production line in Manaus, which is currently focused on bus battery production, or build a facility somewhere else. The Chinese automaker, which has purchased mineral rights in a lithium rich?part?of Brazil, has no immediate plans to develop these areas, due to the low cost of the'mineral used in battery production. He said: "It's not on our agenda, and it isn't a topic of discussion within the company." "We're concentrating on consolidating BYD's passenger car factory and expanding our electric bus production capacity."
The Hormuz gas shock did not break Europe's market. Martin Vladimirov, Borbala Toth and the time might
The?market for natural gas in Europe has, at least thus far, passed the Hormuz test. The U.S. and Iran peace agreement suggests that the worst shock is over, even though flows may only recover gradually. This should calm supply concerns and focus attention on the pressures that will shape the market over the next few decades.
As a result of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz was closed to nearly all trade in liquefied gas. This pushed gas prices in Asia and Europe sharply higher.
Although the Strait of Hormuz is expected to be reopened under 'the deal,' tanker operators warn that transit could take several weeks, and LNG producer QatarEnergy reported that Iranian attacks had wiped out up to 17% its capacity over a period of five years.
Since the beginning of the conflict, on February 28, the average European price per megawatt-hour (MWh) has risen by approximately 10 euros or 31%. The gas bill of the 27 countries in the European Union has risen by 48% during this crisis.
The shock of the gas crisis has not shaken Europe's market. The European gas market was able to plug the hole created by Hormuz with abundant U.S. supplies and higher volumes from Algeria and Nigeria.
The system is not fragmented in to competing zones. No major infrastructure bottlenecks occurred, and the price increases were roughly equal in all member states. Pipelines, terminals for LNG and interconnectors have helped maintain market stability under extreme stress. It does not mean that the shock was without pain, of course. According to preliminary LSEG figures, Russian LNG imports increased by roughly 17% between January and May, even though Europe is seeking to cut energy ties with Moscow because of its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Overall, Europe's system of gas supply proved resilient, even when compared to the magnitude of the shock. It also appears capable of taking on more. We simulated a shock that was more severe, combining an Hormuz style disruption with a complete ban on Russian gas.
This scenario would see European gas prices rise only by 0.4-0.8 euro per MWh for Western Europe, and 1.1-1.4% in Central and Eastern Europe. That's about 7% more than the increase since Hormuz ended.
The modest increase is due to Europe's ability, through new LNG regasification facilities in the Baltic Sea, Adriatic Sea and Aegean seas, to replace most Russian volumes. The CEE region's expanded interconnector infrastructure and some reductions in demand helped to limit supply bottlenecks.
It seems that the fears of future supply shortages on the continent, especially among those who oppose the complete phaseout Russian gas, may be exaggerated. Demand is the greater risk, with a much bleaker outlook.
Demand destruction is expected to occur in Europe over the next few decades.
This is the conclusion of the 'joint modeling assessment' recently completed by the Center for the Study of Democracy and the Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research. The EU's energy outlook for 2040 was assessed under three scenarios - current trends, rapid carbonisation and greater reliance upon gas as a transition fuel.
Unsurprisingly, the slope of the curve is dependent on global gas prices.
We expect European wholesale prices to average around 25 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) - approximately 50% lower than the Iran shock levels. This is supported by an abundant global LNG supply. Gas-fired power plants would still be competitive at those prices. Coal would be phased-out faster and industrial users would continue to use gas as they waited for low-carbon alternatives.
We estimate that the total EU gas consumption will still drop by 30% between 2030 and 2040 to 2,700 Terawatt-hours per year. This is due to efficiency gains in residential sectors, as well as rapid electrification of industrial segments, where electricity would likely replace natural gas for heating.
If current trends are maintained, the average European gas price would be closer to 35 Euros. Gas will likely continue to?play a significant role in the balancing of power markets.
Its economics will likely become less attractive for buildings and industries, where the higher prices would increase incentives to electrify. The annual gas consumption will fall to 2,300 TWh.
In the scenario of accelerated decarbonisation, tighter global LNG markets coupled with geopolitical disruptions will push gas prices to 65 euros. Gas consumption is expected to fall rapidly in almost all sectors at these levels and reach around 1,700 TWh, roughly half of the demand level predicted by the most optimistic scenario.
In such an environment, it is likely that power systems would rely more on renewables, new nuclear plants, and batteries, while electric heating in buildings will become the norm. The European industry will also be under increasing pressure to reduce consumption, electrify wherever possible, and improve efficiency.
CONCENTRATED SUPPLY
Europe's options on the supply side may be limited in time. Qatar, the second largest LNG exporter in the world, is likely to direct a greater share of its LNG sales towards Asian buyers due to the rapidly rising energy demands of the region.
In all of our scenarios, U.S. LNG will dominate the European LNG market. U.S. volumes currently account for around 60% of all European LNG imports. We expect this share to reach 80% in 2030 if Europe completely phases out Russian gas.
Our high-price scenario seems more realistic as a result of this dependency, along with the increased risk from a fragmented market.
These are just scenarios based on assumptions which may or may not come true.
These findings, however, challenge a widely held assumption in Europe's debate on energy: that gas could be used as a cheap transitional fuel over decades. LNG prices may remain high due to global competition and geopolitical disruptions. This could accelerate Europe's move away from gas, regardless of its policy goals.
The gas story in Europe may be defined by gradual erosion, rather than a sudden collapse.
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(source: Reuters)