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India's weak demand for Urals oil leads to a widening of discounts on the oil
Sources say that the differentials between Russian Urals crude and other grades are under pressure due to the weakening value of the grade in India's ports. Three sources in the oil trade reported that discounts for Russian Urals crude have tripled in Indian ports since August compared to Brent dated as U.S. sanction drive key buyers from Moscow-supplied fuel. According to traders, the December Urals cargoes are currently trading at a discount of $5-$6 per barrel compared to Brent. This is about three times greater than the $1-2 seen in August. PLATTS WINDOW There were no bids or offers reported on the Platts Window for Urals CPC Blend, or Azeri BTC on Wednesday. Five sources have confirmed that U.S. sanctions will dismantle what is left of Litasco. Litasco was once Russia's largest oil trader, and a competitor to Swiss oil giants and top Swiss houses. (Reporting from ;)
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CMA CGM, the shipping giant, resumes Russia trade by bringing in food cargo
The company, CMA CGM of France, which is the third largest container shipping line in the world, said that it has resumed limited service to Russia. This includes transporting food. It did so three years after the company had withdrawn from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. CMA CGM, like other Western companies, ceased its activities in Russia. It stopped its shipping services, and divested its stakes in port terminals. CMA CGM stated in an email that the CNC subsidiary of the group has re-launched shipping foodstuffs to Russia, such as coffee and citrus fruits to meet customer demand. It said that the activity was very limited and strictly conducted in compliance with the sanctions regime. The French newspaper Ouest France reported that CMA CGM did not use its own fleet, but booked space on other vessels to transport its containers. CMA CGM has joined its Swiss rival MSC to ship cargo to Russia. MSC continued to ship humanitarian, medical and food items during the conflict in Ukraine.
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Chinese cruise ships avoid Japan amid diplomatic dispute
Sources and cruise schedules reviewed indicate that Chinese cruise operators are avoiding Japanese ports due to a diplomatic dispute between Beijing and Tokyo. This is expected to boost tourism to South Korea. The tensions sparked by the recent events have been cited by tour and port agents. You can also read our blog posts. Japan's new premier could lead to Chinese tourists being redirected from Japan to South Korea. Sanae Takaichi, Japan's new prime minister, told Japanese legislators earlier this month that a Chinese attack against Taiwan could lead to a military response. Adora Magic City is a Chinese cruise liner that visits the touristy island of Jeju in South Korea as well as Japan. According to an announcement posted on the website of South Korea’s Jeju Province, the ship has altered its December schedule to avoid the Japanese ports Fukuoka Sasebo, and Nagasaki, as originally planned. The notice stated that the cruise ship would spend between 31 and 57 hours at Jeju instead of its usual nine-hour schedule. Unofficially, a Jeju official said that the cruise operator asked for a schedule change without giving any reason. The official declined to identify himself as he wasn't authorised to talk to the media. It seems that they are working on a Plan B." Adora Cruises has not responded to a comment request. Japan is counting the costs of the diplomatic conflict. Tokyo-based East Japan International Travel Service said this week that it had lost 80% its bookings for remainder of year. Lee Yong Gun, CEO of South Korean port agent Eastern Shipping told reporters that other Chinese cruise ships were also in discussions to reroute. Lee stated that "if the China-Japan relations further deteriorate and China excludes Japan’s products, culture, and tourism, then I expect Korea to benefit from this." He said that the operator of the "Dream", which departs the Chinese city Tianjin wanted to avoid Japan by rerouting to a South Korean Port in Incheon, or Busan, over the next two weeks, but there wasn't enough time to do so, citing an earlier discussion with the operator. Tianjin Orient International Cruise Line which operates the ship did not reply to a comment request. Details about cruise ships skipping Japan to stay longer in Korea, or even considering it due to diplomatic disputes, have never been reported. According to Qunar, an online travel agency, South Korea was the most popular destination among Chinese tourists in terms of bookings of international flights over the weekend between November 15-16. Many Chinese airlines are offering refunds for routes to Japan. This is expected to increase air travel in South Korea. Jeju Air's executive said that the South Korean budget airline is expecting an increase in Chinese tourism, even though there has been no immediate impact. The chief executive of the South Korean tour agency that caters to Chinese tourists said on Wednesday he just received a request from a Chinese client who asked if an event originally scheduled for Japan in early next year could be relocated to South Korea. He said that "South Korea is clearly going to benefit from this dispute." He said that for the moment, they were in a waiting-and-seeing mode. South Korea welcomed more than half as many Chinese tourists in 2013 due to the territorial dispute between Beijing, Japan and some islands. The Chinese advisory against traveling to Japan has caused South Korean shares in travel-related companies this week to soar. Travel agency Yellow Balloon Tour has seen a 24% increase, and Shinsegae, a department store operator, has seen a 6% gain on the hope that Chinese tourists will switch to South Korea. Travel industry experts said that it may take some time for Chinese tourists to increase in South Korea. Kim Seol Yeong, a tour operator based in Jeju for Chinese cruise tourists, said that the diplomatic dispute had only occurred a few days earlier. It might take some time before we see an increase of Chinese tourists visiting Korea. Luna Wang, 34, from Hangzhou, China, had considered returning to Japan this year, but she may opt for South Korea now. "Now, it seems that Japan is no longer safe for Chinese to travel." She said, "I guess the only option that is good for me to travel to Korea is to go to Japan." The founder of Moment Travel, a Chinese company in Chengdu, noted a dramatic shift in perceptions regarding travel to Japan. Su Shu, the founder of Moment Travel in Chengdu, said that there is now a feeling that anyone who travels to Japan is a traitor. Reporting by Ju-Min Park in Seoul; Casey Hall in Shanghai; and Sophie Yu, in Beijing. Editing by Anne Marie Roantree, Thomas Derpinghaus, and Anne Marie Roantree.
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Lithuania Railway Company stops Lukoil shipments from Russia's Kaliningrad
Due to U.S. Sanctions, the Lithuanian state-owned railway group LTG announced on Friday that it would stop shipments of oil cargoes from Russia's Lukoil into the Russian exclave Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad, located on the Baltic Sea Coast, receives most of its supplies via rail transit via NATO member Lithuania. It can also receive direct shipments via ocean from its own nation. Last month, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed sanctions on Lukoil over the conflict in Ukraine. The OFAC also warned that foreign companies who do business with this Russian group would face consequences if they continued to do so after the November 21 deadline. LTG Group announced in a Friday statement that "cargoes of Lukoil or related companies, oil or petroleum products, will no longer be shipped by rail from Russia to Kaliningrad". The Kremlin said that Lukoil’s international interests must be respected. (Reporting and editing by Terje Solsvik, Andrius Sytas)
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Since August, the US sanctions have hit India, Russian Urals prices in India have tripled.
Three sources in the oil trade reported that discounts for Russian Urals crude have tripled in Indian ports since August compared to Brent dated as U.S. sanction drive key buyers from Moscow-supplied fuel. Last month, the United States imposed their toughest sanctions to date on Russia's oil sector. They targeted Lukoil & Rosneft. The deadline for companies is Friday to end all business with the two oil producers. Urals crude is a staple feedstock for Indian refiners, since 2023 when Moscow diverted flows to Asia following the European Union's ban on Russian energy. Traders said that supplies to India will fall dramatically as most refiners stop buying. Reliance Industries, India’s largest private refiner and India’s largest refinery, has stopped importing Russian crude to its Jamnagar facility in Gujarat as of November 20, according to a spokesperson for the company. RUSSIA OIL IMPORTS FROM WESTERN POINTS ARE NEAR OPTIMAL LEVELS Despite sanctions, Russia’s oil exports to western ports are still near their peak, thanks to OPEC+ production allowances, and refinery shutdowns caused by drone strikes in Ukraine. According to traders, the December Urals cargoes are currently trading at a discount of $5-$6 per barrel compared to Brent. This is about three times greater than the $1-2 seen in August. Prices for Russian oil delivered into Indian ports are usually set on a "delivered-ex-ship" basis. This means that the price does not include transport costs or other charges paid by the seller. Traders said that the price of Urals crude on board at Russian ports depends on the cargo and supplier. It is estimated to be around $20 per barrel. The majority of shipments are handled on "shadow fleets" linked to Russia, which allows Moscow to keep a portion of the differential in price. The freight rates are stable despite the sanctions against vessels. Aframax tankers carrying 700,000 barrels to Baltic ports cost around $7.5 million per one-way trip, while Suezmax trips are between $8 and $8.5 million, traders reported. They added that Russian oil shipments are still expensive but manageable, as there are enough ships available and Urals is trading below the EU's $60 barrel price limit. Conor Humphries (Reporting and Editing)
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Asia spot prices slightly rise amid high inventories and muted demand
The Asian spot price of liquefied gas rose slightly last week but remained in the $11 range due to well-stocked inventories. Average LNG price for delivery to North-East Asia in January Industry sources estimate that the price per million British thermal unit was $11.66 this week, up from $11.10/mmBtu in the previous week. Toby Copson is chairman of Davenport Energy Partners. He said, "The APAC Market remains largely flat or bearish. This is due to (a) a later start to the winter and unseasonably warm temperatures, which are muting seasonal heating demand." He added that "Geopolitical risks premiums have been mostly priced in. So, unless there are any new supply bottlenecks it will trade within this range until we see an extreme and prolonged drop in temperature." The premium of Asian spot gas to European prices at the TTF hub has been increasing for months. This is mainly due to an increase in charter rates, which meant that bringing cargos from Europe to Asia would be more expensive. Alex Froley said, Senior LNG analyst at ICIS. The wholesale gas prices in Europe fell on Friday morning, as the demand for gas was curtailed by warmer temperatures and expectations of a stronger wind output. Prices increased earlier this week due to a cold snap that drove up heating demand. Froley stated that the spot gas prices at TTF hub have remained fairly stable, and the first cold snap of winter has not caused them to significantly increase. Aly Blakeway is the manager of Atlantic LNG for S&P Global Energy. She said that while Europe's storage inventories have decreased, they are still lower than in previous years. On the back of a strong demand for gas to generate electricity, LNG demand is continuing to grow in the East Mediterranean, including Turkey, Greece and Cyprus. Blakeway explained that this, combined with Egypt's rapid procurement of some cargoes, forced sellers to hold back their offers in order to compete for these premium markets. S&P Global Energy's daily North West Europe LNG Marker price benchmark (NWM) for cargoes to be delivered in January, on an ex ship (DES) basis, was $9.994/mmBtu as of November 20. This represents a $0.49/mmBtu reduction from the price at TTF hub. Spark Commodities set the price for December at $10.60/mmBtu. Seb Kennedy, an independent gas analyst, noted that the number of hedge funds trading TTF derivatives reached a record high of over 450 in the past week. This shows the popularity of the EU market for commodity investments. He added that funds bought more TTF-short positions during the week ended November 14, bringing their net position to near zero. According to Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan, the U.S. arbitrage for the front-month to North-East Asia via Cape of Good Hope points to Europe while the Panama Canal arbitrage is open strongly to Asia. The Atlantic LNG rates have risen to their highest level since December 20, 23 at $130,750/day. Pacific rates reached their highest level since August 20,24 at $78,750/day. Marwa Rashad is the reporter. Mark Potter (Editing)
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Sources: US threatens to cut off intel and weapons to force Ukraine into peace agreement
Two people with knowledge of the situation said that the United States had threatened to reduce intelligence sharing and arms supplies to Ukraine in order to pressure it to agree to the framework for a U.S. mediated peace deal. Sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity said that Washington was exerting greater pressure than in previous peace talks, and that it wanted Ukraine to sign the framework of the agreement by next Thursday. One source said, "They want the war to end and they want Ukraine to pay for the price." Washington presented Ukraine with a plan of 28 points, which endorsed some of Russia's main demands during the war. These included that Kyiv cede more territory, reduce the size of its army, and be banned from joining NATO. A senior U.S. delegation met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday in Kyiv to discuss the path to peace. The U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and the Army Public Affairs chief traveling with the delegation described it as a successful meeting and said Washington was seeking an "aggressive deadline" for signing a document between U.S.A. and Ukraine. (Reporting and writing by Tom Balmforth; editing by Philippa Fetcher and Peter Graff).
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Freeport LNG Texas's export plant will take in more natural gases on Friday, according to data.
LSEG data, as well as regulatory filings, show that the U.S. liquefied gas company Freeport LNG was on schedule to receive more natural gas in Texas on Friday. This is a sign of one of three liquefaction train's return to service following its Thursday shutdown. Freeport has been one of the most closely monitored U.S. LNG plants in the world because its changes in operations have caused price fluctuations in global gas markets. Gas prices in the U.S. typically fall when flows to Freeport decrease due to a reduced demand for fuels from the export facility. Prices in Europe usually rise due to the drop in LNG supply available on global markets. The Freeport outage contributed to a 2% decline in futures prices on Thursday in the U.S. Freeport is not responsible for the drop in prices that occurred in Europe. Freeport informed Texas environmental regulators on Friday that Train 1 was shut down Thursday because of a problem with the compressor system. Freeport officials had no comment to make on the incident, but did note that the plant has loaded its 1,000th shipment this week. LSEG reported that gas flow to Freeport was on track to increase to 1.9 billion cubic foot per day (bcfd), up from 1.3 bcfd Thursday. This compares to an average of 1.9 billion cubic feet per day over the previous seven days. Three liquefaction plants at Freeport can convert about 2.4 billion cubic feet per day of gas to LNG. A billion cubic feet of natural gas can supply five million U.S. households for one day. Reporting by Scott DiSavino. (Editing by David Goodman, Mark Potter and Mark Potter.)
Wall St. ends with a higher price as hopes of rate cuts offset fears of an escalating conflict with Iran
Wall Street rose on Monday, as the prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve reducing interest rates by as early as July offset concerns that Iran could disrupt crude transportation in the Middle East.
All three major U.S. indexes ended the day higher. The consumer discretionary sector led the gains, with Tesla providing a strong boost.
"The rally was a little surprising," said Jay Hatfield. He is the CEO and portfolio manager of InfraCap, a New York-based company. In a sense, the U.S. attacks have ended the uncertainty about whether or not the U.S. would attack.
Hatfield said, "The market is very bullish at this time of the year because we are supposed to see a pullback in June." "People don't want to sell on this market."
Michelle Bowman, Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, said that it was time to adjust the policy rate as the risks on the job market outweighed inflationary concerns relating to tariffs. Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said that tariffs had so far had a smaller economic impact than anticipated.
The financial markets expect at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points before the end of the year. It is expected that the first rate cut will occur in September.
Paul Nolte is a senior wealth advisor & Market Strategist at Murphy & Sylvest, located in Elmhurst in Illinois. Powell's "wait and see" is probably a good tactic. But, of course, markets love lower interest rates.
Tesla shares soared following the launch of its robotaxi service in Austin Texas. Israel continued to bomb Iran a day after the U.S. entered the war.
Oil prices fell despite Iran's refusal to take action against oil and gas tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran had threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz - a vital oil shipping route.
Nolte stated that "the markets read this as saying 'hey we're success,'" we destroyed their nuclear capability and were able support any counterstrikes. "I believe there was much concern that Iran would act more aggressively than it did."
S&P Global’s "flash" advance purchasing managers' (PMIs) indexes showed that the U.S. economic expansion is accelerating at a faster pace than analysts expected. Separately, despite the pressure of high borrowing costs, new home sales posted an unexpected increase in May.
The Commerce Department's final assessment of first-quarter GDP, its Personal Consumption Expenditures and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony will likely be analyzed for clues about the near-term direction of monetary policy.
Preliminary data shows that the S&P 500 rose 57.20, or 0.96 percent, to 6,025.04 while the Nasdaq Composite grew 183.98, or 0.95 percent, to 19,631.39. The Dow Jones Industrial Average grew 373.48, or 0.88% to 42,580.30.
Fiserv shares soared after the company announced that it was launching a digital asset platform.
Northern Trust has jumped in response to a Wall Street Journal article stating that Bank of New York Mellon had discussed a possible merger.
Super Micro Computer, a maker of AI-servers, dropped its stock after it announced that it would be issuing a private offer of convertible bonds for five years worth $2 billion.
Later this week, Nike, a sportswear firm, and FedEx - a package delivery company - will release their quarterly results.
(source: Reuters)