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The US Permian oil is becoming lighter and this could cause it to lose favor with refiners

The West Texas Midland crude, the oil that made the U.S. the world's largest producer of oil, is becoming lighter. This could make the crude less attractive to refiners.

The super-light crudes will have to be blended into heavier grades in order to produce gasoline, diesel fuel and jet fuel. Demand for WTI Midland could be reduced by a lack of heavy crude or high prices. The global Brent benchmark, of which WTI is now a part, could see its prices fall.

Its low sulfur content and similarity to other benchmark grades have made the U.S. flagship crude a favorite among refineries in Asia, Europe and beyond.

Brent is a grouping of North Sea grades that are used to price more than 75% of all crude oil in the world.

The Permian Basin in west Texas and New Mexico has been producing lighter crude. Sources who refused to identify themselves because the data was confidential said that recent testing showed the oil's density or gravity is between 41-44 degrees.

WTI Midland crude has historically had a gravity between 38 and 42 degrees. The higher the number the lighter the crude oil.

As they move from the first tier of production to second tier, shale producers pump lighter oil. These wells produce more natural gas and crude oil is moving into lighter territory.

In general, lighter crudes are more valuable than heavier ones, but refineries have been designed for certain densities and not usually super-light crude. Refiners are looking for crudes that will deliver the highest margins with their existing equipment. To run lighter crudes at a profit, units would need to invest in new equipment.

When refined, lighter crude produces more naphtha for petrochemical feedstocks and less diesel or jet fuel. Refining towers that are not designed to handle high volumes of naphtha may have to be modified to accommodate higher volumes. This may force refiners to reduce the amount of crude they use.

Viktor Katona, Kpler's lead crude analyst, said that if crude were lighter, hydrocrackers - units which break down heavy molecules using high heat and pressure - would not be used as much. Reformer units that turn naphtha to a component in finished gasoline would have to work harder.

Hydrocrackers, while more expensive to operate, produce diesel and jet fuel with higher margins that refiners want to sell.

Katona said that no one had the money to build the new refinery. "One would have to reconfigure it, build completely different unit, bigger units for lighter distillates like naphtha, smaller units for middle distilates like diesel, and no one has the funds for that."

As more people are working from home, the demand for gasoline is expected to increase.

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Sources and analysts have said that refiners do not want to invest large amounts of money in their plants.

Two to Tango

Rommel Oates is the founder of Refinery Calculator, a software company that specializes in refining. He said: "Refiners must blend it (lighter WTI Middle) to make it heavier and more aligned to processing units they have invested in."

Analysts said that pipeline companies who buy crude from shale producers may also blend it with other grades, such as West Texas Sour, to meet export specifications.

Katona stated that "WTI's (Midland's) need a partner, a heavy crude, to dance with. Otherwise, you wouldn't want it to be run. But we may reach a point where the heavies become too expensive to blend with WTI.

Cost of mixing crudes may cause a drop in demand for WTI Midland. This would, in turn depress the price for dated Brent unless Platts removed WTI Midland or limited acceptable gravity.

Robert Auers, RBN Energy analyst, said: "A lighter WTI Midland won't do anything but weaken the benchmark since WTI Midland is now slightly less valuable." Dated Brent prices may fall by up to 50 cents per barrel if WTI Midland becomes lighter, Robert Auers added.

Platts (part of S&P Global) currently assesses and publishes prices for WTI Midland, with an API gravity of 40-44 degrees. A spokesperson stated that they monitor the quality and could launch a standard consultation with industry if quality review was required.

Sources said that refiners, pipeline operators, and others are discussing the need for an oil benchmark with a lower gravity. This would allow buyers to distinguish WTI Midland from super light streams of crude. (Reporting from Arathy S. Somasekhar, Houston; additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar. Editing by David Gregorio.)

(source: Reuters)