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Bonds are sold from Tokyo to Sydney as oil reaches $100/barrel

Investors were worried about inflation risks and the impact on interest rates as a result of the rapidly?worsening U.S. - Israeli war against Iran.

Oil prices rose by more than 20%, reaching their highest level since July 2022. The week-long conflict in the Middle East led to major oil producers cutting supplies. Investors were also concerned about the possibility of a prolonged disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

George Boubouras is the head of research at K2 Asset Management. He said that the spike in oil prices was a function of uncertainty about the length of the conflict. Higher oil prices can also be inflationary. Bonds are being overlooked because of the specter of rising inflation, and central banks' potential need to raise rates or keep them higher longer. Bond investors are instead re-pricing what interest rates will look like in the short term.

The yield on three-year Australian government bonds jumped 16 basis points, to the highest level since mid-2011. The yields on ten-year government bonds rose 13 basis points to 4.977%. Bond yields increase when prices fall.

The yen was also under pressure due to the rise in oil prices. Investors in the broader market sold precious metals and stocks, becoming risk-averse, with the U.S. Dollar gaining popularity.

The Strait of Hormuz is the cause of the current financial market chaos. "This oil shock will not end until ships are able to sail freely through Strait", said Ed Yardeni, of New York's Yardeni Research. He said that until then, financial markets will be increasingly worried about a 1970s style stagflation, in which growth stagnates even though prices are rising.

After a rise of over 17 basis points last week, the?two-year U.S. Treasury Yield gained 6.7 basis point?to 3.626% in Asian hours.

German and French bond futures fell on Monday as well, indicating that the selloff would extend to Europe. Bund futures dropped?0.59%, to their lowest level since 2011, and French OAT futures declined 0.89%. Mojtaba Khamenei was named as the successor to his father Ali Khamenei by Iran on Monday, signaling that the hardliners are still in control. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist for Saxo. She said that markets see the new Iranian leader as a hardliner who has close ties with the Revolutionary Guards. This may be a sign of policy continuity or confrontation risk.

Chanana explained that "for investors, crude oil starts to become a real macro-worry when it stops being an one-day spike, and starts to feed into inflation, margins, and policy expectations." (Reporting and editing by Ankur Banerjee, Singapore)

(source: Reuters)