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Andy Home: Warning lights flash when aluminium reels are impacted by Gulf shock
The Iran War is shaping up as one of the largest?supply shocks' in the history the aluminum market. According to the International Aluminium Institute, the Gulf's production of this metal, used in sectors such as transportation, packaging and solar panels, plummeted in April to its lowest level for over a decade. The regional run-rates fell by 2 million metric tons annually between March and April. In missile strikes, two Gulf aluminium smelters were damaged. Al Taweelah, the Emirates Global Aluminium plant in Al Taweelah will require a year to repair. At least one other manufacturer - Qatalum has reduced its capacity. Major logistical issues are a result of the continued closure of Strait of Hormuz for those who still operate. The Gulf is the largest non-Chinese producer and a major supplier of goods to Japan, South Korea and the United States. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) price isn't indicative of the scale of the impact on supply. At $3,650 a ton, it is only up 14% since hostilities began and is still far below the 2022 highs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The market dashboard is flashing red. LME TIGHTENS as Stocks DRAIN Away First, the LME spreads have been sharply tightened. The benchmark cash-to-3-months spread of the?LME Cash is trading at a $80 premium. This is the tightest market since 2007. The squeeze was short-lived and only affected short positions. This time, the tightness appears to be structural and persistent. The LME stock, which was already low, has been raided by traders as they look to fill in the supply-chain gap created due to the loss Gulf production. Since the start of this year, LME registered stock has fallen by one-third to 339 475 tons. In the last two weeks, almost 68,000 tonnes have been cancelled to prepare for physical loading-out. The remaining tonnage on the LME warrant now is largely Russian aluminum being stored in South Korea's port of Gwangyang. The sanctions over the Ukraine War have rendered this product useless to U.S. and European buyers. These daily withdrawals are not transfers to off-warrant stock. The LME's "shadow" stock has also been dwindling and is the lowest it's been since the exchange started reporting off-warrant storage in 2020. PHYSICAL PREMIUMS SURGE Second, the increase in physical premiums across the globe is a warning sign. Since the beginning of hostilities, the CME spot premium has increased by more than twice as much to $316 per tonne over the LME. Japanese buyers accepted a $350 premium for their second quarter deliveries. This is the highest price increase in 11 years. Since the beginning of March, the European duty-paid premium jumped 58%. The duty-unpaid premium soared 75%. Due to import tariffs of 50%, the U.S. Midwest premium is up by only a modest 8%. However, American buyers are already paying record prices to secure metal. The Gulf supply shock is most evident in these manifestations. What is less visible is the situation in segments of the market that are not exchange-traded, such as billets. This product is used by construction and transportation sectors. Fastmarkets, a price reporting agency, reports that the premium for aluminium billet extrusion in Rotterdam has doubled, reaching $1,100 above the LME base rate. DEFICIT STRUCTURAL The relative calmness of the LME's outright price masks a tightening along the processing chain. While LME traders price in the ebbs and flows of headlines surrounding the Iran War, physical buyers pay?up to secure enough metal on a market heading towards a structural shortage. Mozal Smelter in Mozambique was closed due to "high energy prices" and this has compounded the loss of production. According to the latest IAI figures, the combined impact has resulted in a drop of 2.4 million tons in Western production during the past two months. The situation could get worse if the Gulf smelters that are still producing cannot source enough raw material via routes which circumvent Strait of Hormuz. China's massive?aluminium base has increased production, but it is now close to its government's maximum capacity. There is little room for significant further upside. The country's exports are likely to increase in response to the Gulf Supply Crisis, but these will be mostly semi-processed metals such as foil, strip and bars, rather than raw material. The cushion can be a short-term one, but as the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the thinner it becomes. This is a shock to a market which has been living with structural oversupply for the past 20 years. Aluminium prices are not yet reflecting the seismic changes that have occurred in the supply chain. However, physical buyers already know the extent of the changes. Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! 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Ships transporting Middle East oil and LNG leave Hormuz on their way to Pakistan and China
Shipping data shows that two liquefied gas tankers will leave the 'Strait of Hormuz today, bound for Pakistan and China. Meanwhile, a supertanker carrying iraqi oil bound for China has left the Gulf after nearly three months of being stuck. The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, which began on 28 February, has caused a severe curtailment of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Around one-fifth of world oil and LNG is normally transported through this strait. These vessels are part of a small group of supertankers that will be leaving the Gulf via a transit path Iran has requested ships use. Three Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), carrying 6 million barrels, made their way from China to South Korea last week. Shipping data from LSEG/Kpler shows that the LNG tanker Fuwairit crossed the?Strait of Hormuz Monday, and will discharge its cargo into Pakistan on Tuesday. The vessel, which is sailing under the Bahamas flag and loaded LNG in Qatar's Ras-Laffan port on March 28, was registered to the Bahamas. Japan's Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL), the owner of Fuwairit could not be reached immediately for comment. Al Rayyan, a LNG tanker, has also left the strait. It was last seen on the Gulf coast, May 22. Now it is outside the strait that separates Iran from Oman. LSEG data and Kpler show that it is expected to discharge the cargo in China by June 27. QatarEnergy which owns Al Rayyan did not immediately respond to an outside of office hours comment request. Shipping data from LSEG and Kpler indicated that the VLCC Eagle Verona is expected to arrive at Ningbo Port in eastern?China, on 12 June, to discharge its cargo. According to data, the Singaporean-flagged vessel chartered by 'Unipec', the trading arm for Asia's biggest refiner, Sinopec loaded around 2 million barrels Basrah crude on February 26. Two sources earlier told us that the Eagle Verona was one of seven ships Malaysia asked Iran for permission to transit. Two sources said earlier that the Eagle Verona was one of seven ships Malaysia had asked Iran to allow it to transit. Sinopec, as well as the Malaysian state shipper MISC - which owns this vessel - could not be reached immediately for comment. ?Shipping through the strait was averaging 125-140 daily passages before the war. Around 20,000 seafarers are still stranded on hundreds of ships in the Gulf. Reporting by Florence Tan in Singapore and Emily Chow, with additional reporting by Rozanna latiff in Kuala Lumpur. Editing by Sonali and Jamie Freed.
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Ships transporting Middle East oil and LNG leave Hormuz on their way to Pakistan, China
Shipping data revealed that a liquefied gas tanker left the Strait of Hormuz on Monday and headed to Pakistan, while a supertanker carrying iraqi oil bound for China had just left the Middle East Gulf after nearly three months of being stuck. The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, which began on 28 February, has severely restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Through this Strait of Hormuz normally flows?around one fifth of the world's oil and LNG supply. These vessels are among a few supertankers that have left the Gulf via a transit path ordered by Iran. Three Very Large Crude Carriers, or VLCCs, made their way from China to South Korea last week with 6,000,000 barrels of crude oil. Shipping data from LSEG and Kpler revealed that the LNG tanker Fuwairit - is crossing the Strait of Hormuz and will discharge its cargo in Pakistan on Tuesday. The vessel, flying the Bahamas flag and loading LNG in Qatar's Ras-Laffan port, around March 28, was sailing under the Bahamas Flag. Japan's Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL), the owner of Fuwairit could not be reached outside of office hours for a comment. Separately the VLCC Eagle Verona is expected to'reach Ningbo Port in eastern China by June 12th to discharge its cargo. 'Shipping data from LSEG and Kpler indicated this. According to data, the Singaporean-flagged vessel chartered Unipec - the trading arm for Asia's largest refiner Sinopec - loaded around 2 million barrels Basrah crude oil on February 26. Outside office hours, it was impossible to reach Sinopec or the Malaysian state shipper MISC which owns this vessel. Prior to the start of the war, the shipping through the strait was between 125 and 140 passages per day. Around 20,000 seafarers are still stranded on hundreds of ships in the Gulf.
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Ukraine claims it has hit a pumping station for oil in Russia's Vladimir Region
The Ukrainian SBU security service said that its drones had attacked an 'oil pumping' dispatch station in Russia's Vladimir Region on Sunday. They added that the facility is a key node for pumping oil products south-west to Moscow and surrounding areas. The?SBU released a statement on social media saying that the company?supplies oil to major depots in and around Moscow, as well as to Sheremetyevo Airport, Domodedovo Airport, and Vnukovo Airport. It added that an area of 800 square metres (8.600 square feet), was affected by the fire. Alexander Avdeyev said on social media that the fire near the village of Kameshkovo has been extinguished. Avdeyev, as quoted by Interfax, only mentioned that the fire was at an infrastructure site, and did not indicate if it had any connection to the oil industry. (Reporting and Editing Bernadette baum, Ron Popeski, Nia Williams; Editing Max Hunder)
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Trump says no rush for Iran deal, US blockade stays
Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he had told his representatives to not rush into any agreement with Iran. This appeared to dampen expectations of an imminent breakthrough for this three-month old war which were raised by both sides just a day before. Trump said on Truth Social that the U.S. Blockade of?Iranian Ships in the Strait of Hormuz "would remain in full force until an?agreement was reached, certified and signed". He said that the negotiations were moving forward and that the U.S.-Iran relationship had become more professional. He added, "Both parties must take the time to get it right." "There can be no errors!" Trump had said a day earlier that Washington and Iran "largely" negotiated a memorandum of agreement on a deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz was used before the conflict for one-fifth of all global oil and LNG shipments. Trump has repeatedly emphasized the possibility of a deal to end the conflict that Israel and the U.S. started on February 28. It wasn't clear if the agreement to which he was referring on Sunday was a memorandum that had been discussed, or a more complex and difficult peace settlement likely to take longer. Both sides are at odds on a number of difficult issues. These include?Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and Tehran’s demands for lifting of sanctions and releasing tens or billions of dollars in Iranian oil revenue frozen abroad. Media in the U.S., Iran, and other countries reported that the memorandum laying out a framework for ending months-long fighting, if completed, would lift the U.S. ban on Iranian shipping, and reopen a waterway which Iran has closed with threats of attacking shipping. HOPE OF RELIEF FROM THE GLOBAL ENERGY CRISE A senior Iranian official told a reporter that the memorandum would be sent for final approval to Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei if it was approved by Iran's Supreme Council of National Security. Iran's Tasnim News Agency said that disagreements remained on one or two clauses. Tasnim quoted a source who said that there would not be a final agreement if the U.S. continues to?create obstacles. A military adviser to Khamenei stated that Tehran has the legal right of managing the Strait of Hormuz. However, it is not clear whether this means continuing to choose which ships are allowed to pass through. A deal that would cement the fragile ceasefire in place today could bring some relief to the markets, but it wouldn't immediately solve a global energy shortage, which is driving up fuel, food, and fertilizer prices. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's head said last week that even if the conflict ends today, full flow through the Strait won't return until the first or second quarter in 2027. Iran's Revolutionary Guards reported that 33 vessels passed through the Strait in the last 24 hours, after receiving permission from Tehran. This is still far below the 140 vessels which would normally pass on a normal day before war. Trump has said that the U.S. attacked Iran in order to stop it acquiring nuclear weapons, despite his various war goals during the conflict. In his Sunday post, he emphasized that Iran "must know, however, they cannot develop or obtain a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb". Iran has denied for years that it was pursuing weapons of mass destruction. It says it has the right to enrich uranium, even though its purity is far greater than what's needed for electricity generation. IRAN: 'ISSUES NEED TO BE Discussed,' Sources say that the proposed framework, when it is implemented, will be in three phases: ending the war formally, resolving crisis in Strait of Hormuz, and opening a window of 30 days for negotiations to reach a wider agreement. This period can also be extended. Trump's approval ratings were hit by the impact of the war on U.S. energy prices. He announced on Friday that he wouldn't be attending his son's marriage this weekend. Trump cited Iran as one reason for staying in Washington. Axios reported that Trump spoke with leaders from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates on Saturday, encouraging them to accept the new framework. Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, said that on Saturday "the trend in this week is towards a reduction of disputes but there are still?issues which need to be addressed through mediators". Baghaei said that while the U.S. blocking of Iran's shipping is important, the priority for the government was to end the threat of new U.S. strikes and the conflict in Lebanon. The U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iran resulted in the deaths of thousands of Iranians before it was stopped by a ceasefire early in April. Israel has also killed and driven thousands of people from their homes in Lebanon. It invaded the country in pursuit of Iran-backed Hezbollah. The Iranian attacks on Israel and the Gulf neighbours have resulted in the deaths of dozens. (Additional reporting by Doina Chicu, Ariba Shhid, Hatem Mter, Andrew Mills and Elwely Elwelly; Writing by Kim Coghill and Kevin Liffey;)
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Bangladesh offers favourable terms for offshore energy tenders
Bangladesh has launched an international bid for oil and gas exploration in 26 offshore blocks?in the Bay of Bengal. It is offering more attractive terms to foreign companies to combat worsening domestic shortages of gas and to reduce its reliance on expensive LNG imports. South Asia has been facing declining gas reserves, increasing dependence on LNG imports, and energy prices that are vulnerable to geopolitical tensions. Petrobangla, a state-owned company, published the tender documents for the Bangladesh Offshore Model Production Sharing Contract 2026 on its website. The deadline to submit bids was November 30, 2018. Energy Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood said at a press briefing that "we have made the terms attractive to encourage participation by international companies." The offshore tender is a part of government's plan to increase domestic supply and reduce import dependency. The revised PSC will require companies to relinquish 20% of their exploration acreage during the exploration phase. This is down from 50% in the past. The mandatory contributions to the workers’ welfare fund were also reduced from 5% to 1.5%. The revised terms are hoped to revive investor interest, after Bangladesh's last offshore licensing round held in March 2024 did not attract any bids despite the fact that several multinational companies purchased data packages. DEEP AND SHallow WATER BLOCKS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE TENDER It offers 15 blocks of deep water and?11 of shallow water in the Bay of Bengal. Petrobangla announced that a basic data package, including geological and other related information, would be available on June 1. To improve the commercial viability of gas prices, the government also revised its formula. Deepwater gas will now be 'linked to Brent crude oil instead of high-sulphur lubricant, allowing contractors up to 11 % of the Brent average price over a three-month period. After the 2024 round failed, a review found that foreign companies raised concerns about gas prices, pipeline construction costs and profits-sharing obligations. Bangladesh has not yet made a significant offshore gas discovery despite settling maritime boundary disputes in 2012 with India and Myanmar. India, Myanmar, and Pakistan, which are all neighbours, have increased their deepwater exploration in the last few years. Several major international companies, including ConocoPhillips, Santos, POSCO Daewoo, and ONGC, have explored offshore blocks in Bangladesh before abandoning the projects.
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Separatist militants claim responsibility for the explosion that killed at least 24 people in a Pakistani train
Officials said that a bomb explosion hit a shuttle train carrying Pakistani security staff and their families on Sunday in the southwest province of Balochistan. This was 'the latest major attack by separatist militants. According to three provincial officials and security officers who spoke under the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media, the explosion caused at least 24 deaths and 70 injuries. At least 24 people were killed and more than 70 injured in this attack. It was part of a?series? of major attacks on security forces, infrastructure and trains in the mineral rich province bordering Iran and?Afghanistan. Pakistan launched counterinsurgency efforts after the most violent violence for years. Separatist militant group, Baloch Liberation Army, or BLA, claimed in a media statement that they carried out the attack, and called it a suicide explosion. Could not independently verify this claim. In a statement, Pakistan's Railways Ministry said that the shuttle train was transporting passengers from Quetta’s cantonment area to connect with the long-distance Jaffar Express train when the explosion struck near a rail track in the provincial capitol. The ministry reported that the explosion caused the engine to be derailed and three coaches to overturn, and two coaches were flipped. It added that the area had been cordoned off by security forces and that rescue operations were underway. An official in the security field said that an explosive-laden vehicle struck one of the train's bogies, which was located in a residential neighborhood. Some of those who died were residents from a nearby apartment complex. Images of the scene show burnt out vehicles, residential?buildings damaged, and twisted metal, debris, and debris scattered along the railway track. Smoke is rising from the wreckage. Shehbaz?Sharif, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, condemned a bomb blast he described as "heinous" on social media site X. He sent condolences to the families of the victims and said that the nation stood by the people in?Balochistan. BLA militants hijacked a Jaffar express train in March 2025 and took hundreds of hostages before a day-long standoff was ended by armed forces. The military said that 21 hostages were killed, along with four soldiers and all 33 attackers. In a 40-hour raid, Pakistani forces have killed 145 militants after coordinated attacks in Balochistan resulted in the deaths of nearly 50 people, according to provincial officials.
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Ukraine claims it has hit Russia's Sheskharis Oil Terminal on Black Sea
The Ukrainian military said that it had attacked the Sheskharis Oil Terminal in Russia, one of the largest on the Black Sea. It also struck the nearby Grushova oil depot. On Telegram, the Ukraine General Staff reported that the overnight attack caused a fire to break out at the Sheskharis Terminal. The general staff of Ukraine also reported that a tanker called Chrysalis had been hit in the Black Sea. In recent months, Ukraine has increased its number and size of strikes on Russian oil refineries and transportation facilities, in an effort to reduce Russia's revenue from oil and natural gas exports that it uses to fund?its war. Robert Brovdi said that in the first 23 of May, Ukrainian drones attacked 13 major Russian oil installations. Brovdi, a Russian oil refinery executive, said earlier this week that six of the 10 biggest oil refineries in Russia had stopped processing crude after the?Ukrainian attack. We could not independently verify the claims. CHEMICAL PLANT AND VESSELS UNDER ATTACK Zelenskiy had said earlier, on 'Saturday, that Ukrainian drones attacked a large Russian chemical plant, Metafrax Chemical in the Perm area that supplied products to Russia’s military complex. He claimed that the 'plant has stopped working after the attack. Brovdi, in a separate Telegram message, said that Ukrainian 'drones' attacked a Russian'military frigate' and a hovercraft missile boat near Novorossiysk Naval Base on Saturday morning. Brovdi said that the extent of damage was unknown. Reporting by Daniel Flynn, Pavel Polityuk and Tomaszjanowski.
Rubio: US will find "another way" if Iran negotiations fail
Marco Rubio, Secretary of State at the Department of State, said that the United States would either reach a fair agreement with Iran or find "another solution" to the conflict. Washington was downplaying hopes for a breakthrough in the war which has been raging for three months.
Rubio said to reporters in New Delhi the U.S. will give diplomacy "every chance" to succeed before looking at "alternatives", following President Donald Trump's statement?on Sunday? that he had instructed his representatives to not rush into any Iran agreement.
Rubio stated that there was "a pretty solid thing on their table" in terms of opening up the strait.
Trump had written on Truth Social a day earlier that the U.S. Blockade of Iranian Ships in the Strait of Hormuz "would remain in full force until an agreement was reached, certified and signed".
He said, "Both parties must take time to get it right."
The Iranian government did not respond immediately. The Tasnim news agency, which is linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guards said that the U.S. still blocked parts of the potential deal. This included Tehran's request for the release frozen funds.
On Monday, oil prices dropped 6% and reached a two-week low as optimism grew about the United States and Iran moving closer to a deal.
Trump raised hopes of a deal imminent on Saturday, when he stated that Washington and Tehran have "largely negotiated", a memorandum of agreement on a peace accord?that will reopen Strait of Hormuz.
The critical waterway carried about a fifth (of all global oil and LNG shipments) before the conflict.
Both sides are at odds over a number of difficult issues. These include Iran's nuclear ambitions and Israel's war with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Also, Tehran is demanding the lifting of the sanctions and the release tens and tens billions of dollars in Iranian oil revenue that has been frozen in foreign bank accounts.
Sticking Points
Senior?Trump Administration official described the latest 'contours' of the issues that are being negotiated.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity said that Iran had agreed in principle to open the Strait of Hormuz as a trade for the United States lifting their naval blockade and for Tehran to dispose of its highly enriched nuclear material.
He said that the U.S. believed Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, had approved the general template of the agreement.
Iran did not confirm the agreement or elaborate on its "in principle".
According to the official, Washington envisaged first reopening the Strait and lifting its naval blockade. The details of the nuclear measure would require more time to negotiate.
The official denied that Iran was unwilling to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile. The official said, "It is a question of how."
On Sunday, a second senior official in the administration said that the proposed framework would allow negotiators to have 60 days to come up with a final agreement.
Iranian sources have said that "feasible solutions" can be found in the future to solve the dispute regarding its highly enriched stockpile of uranium, including diluting it under the supervision and control of the U.N. nuclear watchdog.
Iran has denied U.S. accusations and Israeli allegations that it is developing nuclear weapons. It says it has the right to enrich uranium?for civilian purposes?, even though it's purity far exceeds what is needed for electricity generation.
Trump has been hyping the possibility of an agreement to end the conflict that began on February 28, when the U.S. & Israel started the conflict. He has also faced attempts by Congress to limit his war powers.
Since early April, a tenuous ceasefire is in place.
The President reacted to critics who criticized his handling of the negotiations and his willingness for compromise with Iran.
"If I reach a deal with Iran it will be good and right." Don't listen the losers who criticize something they don't know about," Trump wrote on Sunday.
A deal that reinforces the fragile ceasefire will bring relief to the markets, but not defuse an energy crisis which has pushed up fuel, fertiliser, and food prices.
Early April, the U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iran was suspended.
Israel also has killed thousands of people and forced hundreds of thousands to leave their homes in Lebanon. It invaded the country in pursuit of Hezbollah militants. Iranian attacks on Israel and the Gulf States have killed dozens. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Additional reporting and writing by Helen Coster, Stephen Coates, Doina Chiu, Ariba Shhid, Hatem Mater, Andrew Mills and Elwely Elwelly; Reporting by Bureaus; Writing and editing by Helen Coster, Stephen Coates and Parisa Hafezi)
(source: Reuters)