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Maguire: South America's ascent to become a key crude oil supplier

South America has quietly emerged as the key source of global crude flow. While oil markets are fixated on disruptions in Middle East exports, and the surging U.S. supply by 2026.

The region, led by Brazil, Guyana, and Venezuela, has seen the biggest increase in oil production of any producing block so far this season, reshaping global trade patterns and enhancing the role the Atlantic basin plays?in the global supply.

The shift was gradual, uncoordinated and dispersed. In?aggregate it turns South America into de facto swing suppliers hiding in plain site.

Overlooked

Oil market attention has been focused on the collapse of crude oil exports to date from the Middle East.

Kpler, a commodities intelligence company, shows that the region has anchored the global crude trade with around 43% of seaborne oil exports during the last decade.

The near-total closing of the Strait of Hormuz in March has reduced shipments by over a quarter from January to May, compared with the previous year. This leaves a shortfall of approximately 675 million barrels.

This gap is so large that no single producer can quickly fill it, and the markets are forced to rely heavily on their inventories. This has increased the importance of other sources of supply, notably South America.

Exports have been reduced by several exporters this year to help offset some of the disruption.

South America has seen the largest increase in exports year-over-year, with a rise of around 155,000,000 barrels, surpassing the growth rate for all other regions.

RAPID RISE

Kpler reports that the United States is the top-ranked nation among the 10 countries to have increased crude oil exports most in 2026. The United States registered a 112-million barrel?increase between January and May 2026 compared to 2025.

South America has made a more significant structural and broader contribution.

Brazil, Guyana, and Venezuela have all seen their shipments of?crude oil increase this year. They collectively added around 145 millions barrels.

With the addition of 12 million barrels in Argentina, these key nations have seen gains exceeding 157 million barrels over the previous year.

South America's expansion has been curtailed by a few small declines in export volumes this year. However, the total volume shipped from the region between January and May is still a record at 787 million barrels.

This represents an 84% increase compared to the 430 million barrels produced in the same period of 2021.

Brazil and Guyana have been the driving forces behind this regional expansion.

Brazil is the top exporter in the region since 2019. This was the year that it overtook Venezuelan shipments for the first time.

The total Brazilian crude oil exports from January to May grew by 71%, going up from 211 million barrels to 361 million this year.

This growth spurt has been overshadowed, however, by the rapid increase in loadings from Guyana. The country only began exporting oil in 2020 but increased its loadings from January to May this year from around 17 million barrels.

The 700% increase in Guyana’s oil exports was the largest among major oil exporters during that time period. This helped to keep South America as a major source of oil despite Venezuela’s steady decline.

Exxon's massive investment in the Uaru and Whiptail oil projects should see the production of the country's oil begin in the next year.

Guyana is expected to export nearly all its additional barrels, as it does not have a refining facility of its own.

Add to that the expected growth in exports from Venezuela and South America is well positioned to continue its expansion on the oil markets and establish itself as an important source of oil outside the Middle East.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)