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Maguire: South America's ascent as a key crude oil supplier swing supplier

South America has quietly emerged as an important new source of global crude flow. While oil markets are fixated on disruptions to Middle East exports in 2026 and the surging U.S. production, South America will be a major player.

The region, led by Brazil, Guyana, and Venezuela, has seen the biggest increase in oil exports this year of any producing block. This is reshaping trade patterns globally, and reinforcing Atlantic basin's position in global supply.

The shift?has been?gradual?, dispersed?and largely uncoordinated? In aggregate, this is turning South America into an invisible swing supplier.

Overlooked

Oil market attention has been focused on the collapse of crude oil exports to date from the Middle East.

Kpler, a commodities intelligence company, shows that the region has accounted for 43% of seaborne oil exports during the last decade. This is a major factor in anchoring the global crude trade.

The near-total closing of the Strait of Hormuz in March has reduced shipments by over a quarter from January to May, compared with the previous year. This leaves a shortfall of approximately 675 million barrels.

This gap is so large that no single producer can quickly fill it, and the markets are forced to rely heavily on their inventories. This has increased the importance of a growing supply from elsewhere, particularly South America.

Exports have been reduced by several exporters this year to help offset some of the disruption.

South America has seen the largest increase in exports, with a gain of 155 million barrels, surpassing all other regions.

RAPID RISE

According to Kpler, among the 10 nations that have increased crude oil exports most in 2026, United States ranks first. They registered a nearly 112-million barrel increase from January to May in comparison to the same period in 2025.

South America has made a more significant contribution, both structurally and in terms of its size.

Brazil, Guyana, and Venezuela are the three countries that have seen the largest annual increase in crude oil shipments, adding collectively around 145 millions barrels.

With the addition of 12 million barrels in Argentina, these key nations have seen gains exceeding 157 million barrels over the previous year.

South America's expansion has been curtailed by a few small declines in export volumes this year. However, the region still shipped 787 million barrels from January to may, a record.

This represents an 84% increase compared to the 430 million barrels produced in the same period of 2021.

Brazil and Guyana have been the driving forces behind this regional expansion.

Brazil is the top exporter in the region since 2019. This was the year that it overtook Venezuelan shipments for the first.

The total Brazilian crude oil exports from January to May grew by 71%, going up from 211 million barrels to 361 million this year.

This 'growth spurt' has been overshadowed, however, by the rapid increase in oil exports from Guyana. The country only began exporting in 2020 but has already increased its loadings from 17 million barrels per year in?2021 up to 137 million this year.

The 700% increase in Guyana’s oil exports was the largest among major oil exporters during that time period. It helped to keep South America as a major source of oil despite the steady decline in Venezuela’s output.

Following massive investments by Exxon, the Uaru and Whiptail oil projects should begin production within the year.

Guyana is expected to export nearly all its additional barrels, as it does not have a refining facility of its own.

Add to that the expected growth in Venezuela's exports, and South America is well positioned to continue its expansion on the oil markets and establish itself as an important source of oil outside the Middle East.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)