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Maguire: The hydro-boom in Turkey helps to extend Europe's gas shortage.

Turkey's energy producers have gained an unexpected advantage: water.

Hydroelectric production has soared, allowing utilities to reduce natural gas consumption by over 75% from January to May. This has led to significant reductions in power sector emissions and reduced the reliance on imported fuel.

The shift has been dramatic. According to Ember's data, between January and May, the hydro output increased by nearly 60% compared to a year ago, while gas-fired production dropped more than 40%.

The surge in hydro power generation, along with a record solar and wind output enabled 'clean energy sources' to account for over 60% of Turkey’s electricity mix, for the first time. This marks a significant energy transition milestone for t he fast-growing Turkish economy.

The consequences of the coup extend beyond Turkey's borders.

According to the Energy Institute's report, Turkey is Europe's fourth largest gas consumer. This pullback in demand reinforces a regional trend that sees a decline in gas consumption and reliance on renewable energy.

Turkey's lower use of gas has allowed it to inject more into storage facilities rather than burning it in power stations, helping to limit Europe’s overall gas inventory drawdown in 2026.

HYDRO TAKING CENTER STAGE

This year, the Turkish power system has been dominated by a resurgence in hydropower.

The hydro generation during January-May totaled 46.33 Terawatt Hours (TWh), the highest ever recorded for this period. This is up from 29.03TWh in the same period of 2025. That's a gain?of almost 60% or 17.3TWh.

This increase was almost as much as Turkey's total electricity generated by gas from January to May (17.48TWh). It shows the impact of the surge in hydroelectricity on the Turkish power system.

In the first five months of this year, hydro output was higher than that of coal and natural gas. This makes water the largest power source in Turkey.

Hydro's share in total electricity supplied by utilities grew to 33.2%, up from 20.8% one year ago. This is the highest level since January-May 2020.

The dam operators were able to maximize production despite the increasing demand for electricity, thanks to the favorable weather conditions and high reservoir levels.

The total electricity generated in Turkey from January to May was a record-breaking 142.44 TWh, up from 140.88TWh one year ago. This means that Turkey produced more power while simultaneously reducing fossil fuel use.

GAS SETBACK

Natural gas has been the principal victim of?the hydroboom.

The gas-fired generation dropped to 17.48 TWh from 29.42 a year ago, a 40.6% decline. Gas's share in total generation fell from 20,7% to 11,9%, a record low.

According to Ember data, in absolute terms, the gas generation has fallen by 12?TWh compared to the previous year. This is the biggest year-to date decline for at least seven consecutive years.

The fall was most pronounced in the spring when hydro production soared.

The average gas-fired generation was about 2 TWh per month between March and May, compared to more than 4TWh for several months during the same period in last year.

The coal generators are also being squeezed.

The coal-fired production fell 16.1% on an annual basis to 38.14 TWh. This is the lowest output in over a decade.

CLEAN POWER MILESTONE

Hydro is not acting alone.

Turkey's wind power generation increased from 14.95 to 17.97 TWh between January and May, whereas solar energy production increased from 13.31 to 13.98.

Hydro, wind, and solar combined to produce 86.25 GWh of clean electricity, compared with 65.52 GWh one year ago. Clean sources provided 61.2% all electricity compared to 46.8% in the same period of 2025.

The fossil-fuel production fell more than 25% to 56.19TWh, down from 75.36TWh.

The impact on the environment of the drastic cuts in fossil fuel generation is substantial. The power sector's emissions from fossil fuels have fallen by more than 21% to 47.91 metric tons CO2 equivalent, down from 61.01 metric tons the year before.

Storage BOost

The lower gas consumption has also created another benefit: more fuel for storage.

Turkey is able to store additional gas underground instead of using large amounts of imported gas for power plants.

According to LSEG, the year-to-date injections of storage have reportedly been 18% higher than last year's levels. This is a significant development, especially at a moment when Europe is working hard to replenish its inventories following a strong withdrawal season.

By storing gas in Turkey, Turkey reduced the pressure on the European gas system as a whole and helped to limit the inventory drawsdowns throughout the region.

This could be as significant as the decline of power-sector gas use.

Turkey is a transit and consumption market, so any changes in the gas balance will have a greater impact on regional supply dynamics.

BROADER TREND

The experience of the Turkish people is also part of a larger story that's unfolding in Europe.

Renewables continue to reduce the role of gas in electricity generation across the region whenever weather conditions are favorable.

European policymakers spent years trying reduce exposure to volatile imported gases through increased renewable deployment, efficiency improvements and electrification.

The gas consumption in Europe is still well below the pre-crisis level despite periodic increases tied to weather conditions and electricity demand.

The transformation of Turkey's power sector to hydro-led is one of the most obvious examples of this trend by 2026.

Turkey's gas demand has decreased, but total electricity production?has increased.

This suggests switching fuels rather than demanding destruction.

This is perhaps the most encouraging sign for a continent that still tries to reduce its dependence on imported gas.

These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)