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US accelerates power grid projects in AI
The Trump administration launched a new initiative on Thursday to accelerate the development of power plants, transmission lines and other infrastructure as artificial intelligence increases demand. The Department of Energy (DOE) is asking stakeholders, including utilities and transmission managers, for information on investment opportunities near term, the readiness of projects, growth expectations in power demand and any constraints it could address. On his first day in office, Donald Trump issued an executive order declaring a state of energy emergency. Artificial intelligence, data centres, and electric cars are driving the demand for power to its highest level in 20 years. The DOE has ordered that several coal and gas plants, which had planned to close down, continue to operate. This is the latest U.S. effort to support fossil fuels. Trump claims that the rapid adoption of solar power and wind energy has caused U.S. electricity to be unstable and costly, which is why he wants to stop most subsidies. Texas has seen an improvement in reliability, but the grid that uses the most renewable energy in the U.S. is still the one with the highest rate of failure. The DOE will use the Speed to Power program to determine the best way to utilize funding programs, national emergency authorities and grid expansion to increase power generation. DOE has millions of dollars in funding and financing, including through its Loan Programs Office. The DOE cancelled a $4.9billion loan guarantee in July for a transmission system that was supposed to transmit power from Kansas wind and solar projects to cities in Midwest and East. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission also took action on Thursday to improve grid security. FERC has approved and proposed new rules to reduce risks associated with supply chains, cyber attacks, and electrical grid disruptions due to extreme cold. Extreme cold can sometimes cause blackouts. Green energy opponents claim that coal plants scheduled to retire in Trump's second tenure will still be needed. Tom Pyle of the American Energy Alliance predicted that, on Trump's orders or out of their own volition, 38 coal plants scheduled to close by 2028 will remain open. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in July 2025, power plants will burn about 20% more coal in the first quarter of 2025 than in 2024.
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Urals diffs unchanged, September loadings revised
Sources said that the differential between Brent and Urals crudes was stable on Thursday. However, oil loadings at Russia's western port ports were revised due to drone-related damage to refineries and export infrastructure. Two sources familiar with the schedule said that Russia increased its planned oil loads from the Black Sea port Novorossiysk and the Baltic port Ust-Luga for September due to disruptions at Primorsk. Two sources familiar with the situation said that Novatek, a Russian gas company, delivered 70,000 tons of gas to Novorossiysk during the September shutdown of the Ust-Luga complex. As the Ukrainian drone attacks continue traders are predicting that exports could be revised until the end of this month. Ukraine announced on Thursday that drones it had used in Russia struck an oil processing, petrochemical and refinery complex. This was part of a campaign intensifying to disrupt the oil and gas industry in Moscow. PLATTS WINDOW On Thursday, no bids or offers for Urals BTC, Azeri BTC Blend or CPC blend were made in the Platts Window. According to LSEG and industry sources, the freight rates for Very Large Crude Carriers have risen to their highest level in over two years. This is due to a tightening of tanker supplies, a rise in Middle East oil exports, and an increase in arbitrage supplies into Asia. (Reporting and Editing by Alan Barona).
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Top shipping players call for a rethink of UN Ship Fuel Emissions Deal
After the U.S. vetoed the draft agreement, a group of leading shipping companies, including Greek leaders, said they wanted changes made to an October United Nations agreement that aims to reduce marine fuel emissions. The global shipping industry accounts for almost 3% of all carbon emissions in the world. This proposed agreement is vital to accelerate decarbonisation by establishing a more robust regulatory framework. The group, which includes some of the largest oil tanker companies in the world such as Cyprus-based Frontline or Saudi Arabia-based Bahri, said that they had "grave concern" over the Net-Zero Framework being proposed to be adopted next month by the U.N. International Maritime Organization's environmental committee. In a statement released on Thursday, the companies said that they did not think the IMO NZF would be able to support the decarbonisation of the maritime industry... or ensure a level playing field. "We think that the IMO NZF needs to be amended, and realistic trajectories should be taken into consideration before it can even be considered for adoption." In April, countries reached a draft agreement which would impose a charge on ships that violate global carbon emission standards. Sources told the media in September that the United States had warned countries not to accept this deal, or else they would face tariffs and visa restrictions, as well as port charges. In a joint statement, it was stated that an agreement must avoid "excessive costs and inflationary pressures to consumers". Arsenio Dominguez, the Secretary-General of IMO, said he is confident that the agreement will be adopted by next month. "I base this on the track-record of the organization, the co-operation we all have, and the understanding that there are still some challenges and concerns to be addressed," he said at a Capital Link Shipping Conference in London on Monday. During the London International Shipping Week, earlier this week, Vassilis Kilias, Greek Shipping Minister Vassilis told Dominguez that improvements are needed. In a press release, the shipping ministry stated that "the minister underscored that he shared the concerns of the shipping industry." According to sources, it is unclear whether or not the deal will go through if there are more protests against it or if IMO member states abstain. Without a mechanism, emissions will soar. 90% of world trade is carried out by sea. Capital Group, TMS Group and Centrofin were also signatories of the statement. Other co-signatories included Emarat Maritime (Gaslog), Hanwha Shipping (Angelicoussis Group), Trust Bulkers, Common Progress, Dynacom, Dynagas, Hanwha Shipping (Emarat Maritime), Seapeak, Stolt-Nielsen, Hanwha Shipping Company, Angelicoussis Group. (Reporting and editing by Nia Williams; Renee Maltezou and Jonathan Saul)
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Bolsonaro could be included in the amnesty bill being rushed through by Brazil's Congress
Brazil's lower chamber of Congress voted on Monday to speed up an amnesty measure backed by right-wing opponents. The bill could provide relief to former President Jairbolsonaro, and to his supporters who were sentenced to prison after his election defeat in 2023 for their role in the riots. Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years, three months of prison by a Supreme Court panel last week for plotting to overturn 2022 elections, in which he lost. His sons, and his supporters, have touted amnesty legislation as a way to achieve freedom. However the legality of this move is still disputed. Two Supreme Court Justices have already said that pardoning those convicted for plotting a coup is unconstitutional. On Wednesday, the lawmakers voted by 311 to 163 in favor of an amnesty law, which is still undefined, to bypass committee discussions and move straight to a vote at plenary. The preliminary version of amnesty legislation under consideration would pardon anyone involved in "political protests" after October 30, 2022. However, lawmakers could alter the proposal before a final vote. The original bill covers the Bolsonaro-supporters' attack on Brasilia government buildings that occurred in January 2023. Many of these Bolsonaro-supporters have already been convicted. Others have suggested that the bill would shorten their sentences instead of wiping clean their records. Some lawmakers want Bolsonaro to be included in the amnesty bill, so that he can avoid prison while still being disqualified for next year’s presidential elections. On the day that his father was sentenced to prison, Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro said that a legislative amnesty could be the fastest way to "achieve some form of justice... and bring peace to Brazil." House Speaker Hugo Motta left the outline of the bill open for discussion. "We have divergent views and interests in the House regarding the events on January 8, 2023. Motta stated as he began the procedural vote Wednesday night that it was up to the sovereign assembly to decide. Motta named Congressman Paulinho da Forca the sponsor of the Bill, tasked him with drafting the Final Version for a Vote, and gave him the freedom to make significant changes to the text. The lawmaker said that as a sponsor, he would look for a compromise and rule out the amnesty "broad, unrestricted, general, and unlimited" demanded by Bolsonaro’s closest allies. He told reporters, "I believe we will need to find a middle ground that may not satisfy the left or right but pleases the majority." The Lula government has rejected the amnesty plan. Gleisi Hoffmann, Minister of Institutional Relations, posted on social media that "far from pave the way for any peace, it would be a affront to both the Judiciary, and the democratic conscience of the country." Reporting by Maria Carolina Marcello, Sao Paulo and Eduardo Simoes; Writing by Gabriel Araujo. Editing by Richard Chang.
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S.African Transnet signs port equipment agreement with Liebherr
Transnet, a South African logistics company, announced on Thursday that it had signed a 10-year agreement with the German equipment manufacturer Liebherr to supply cranes in order to modernise and upgrade its port operations. Transnet stated that the two parties had also agreed to a 20-year Asset Management Programme, where Liebherr will provide maintenance, repairs, and spare parts for equipment. Transnet, the state-owned company that operates South Africa's port and rail freight network, is struggling to provide adequate service due to underinvestment. Equipment shortages have caused its port operations to be hampered, leading to long backlogs and affecting retailers and exporters. Jabu Mdaki, Chief Executive Officer of Transnet Port Terminals, said: "This strategic partnership empowers us significantly to boost operational efficiency, streamline logistics and reduce long-term operating costs." Transnet has already placed significant orders for Liebherr products, including four STS cranes for Durban's port. It also ordered 48 rubber-tyred (RTG), gantry cranes for Durban and Cape Town terminals.
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Tunnel under the Alps connects Italy and Austria
On Thursday, workers broke through the final thin layer of rock to open an underground tunnel that will become a high speed rail line connecting Europe's north and south. The Brenner Base tunnel, which has been dubbed the longest underground rail link in the world, is at the heart of an EU initiative to move freight from the road to rail to reduce pollution and increase cross-border trade. At the ceremony of breaking the first rock, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Mello said: "Today we take together a crucial step towards the construction of one the largest infrastructure projects on the continent." "It's a historic moment... for Italy and Austria as well as for Europe in general." It will be the first rail tunnel connecting Austria with Italy. The link is scheduled to open in 2032 - 16 years late compared to the original schedule - and will cost about 8.5 billion euro ($10 billion), 2.5 billion more than budget. When completed, the tunnel will be 55 km long (34 miles). It can be extended to 64 km if it is connected to an existing underground connection into Innsbruck. The journey time from Fortezza, Italy to Innsbruck will be reduced to 25 minutes instead of 80 minutes. The Brenner Pass, one of Europe's most popular mountain passes for freight transportation, is extremely busy. The Alpine Pass is choked with more than 50 million tonnes, 14 million vehicles, and 2.5 million trucks each year. Around 70% of trans-Alpine cargo traffic travels through the Brenner by road. Only 30% is transported by rail. The tunnel hopes to change this imbalance. The new link may not have the impact that was hoped for because Germany hasn't finalised the northern access routes needed to connect with the Brenner Tunnel.
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Two British teens arrested over cyberattack on London Transport
The National Crime Agency in Britain announced on Thursday that two teenagers were charged with a cyberattack against London's public transportation system 2024. In August 2024, Transport for London (TfL), the company that operates London's bus and tube networks, which account for millions of daily journeys in the capital city was targeted. TfL stated at the time of the attack that personal data about customers was accessed. The NCA released a statement in which Thalha Jubair and Owen Flowers were charged with conspiracy to commit unauthorised acts on behalf of TfL under the Computer Misuse Act. Flowers was also charged with crimes relating to California’s Sutter Health System, one of the biggest health systems in the United States. He is accused of conspiring with other people to infiltrate SSM Health Care Corporation’s networks. Investigators at the NCA believe that the TfL hack was perpetrated by members of a hacking group known as Scattered Spider. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton; Sam Tobin is the reporter)
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Sources say that Novatek, a Russian company, redirects the gas condensate from Ust-Luga to Novorossiisk following the shutdown of its complex.
Two sources familiar with the situation said that Novatek, a Russian gas company, delivered about 70,000 tons of gas to the Black Sea port Novorossiisk during the September shutdown of the Ust-Luga complex. An early morning drone attack on the Novatek complex caused an explosion and fire, which led to all operations being shut down for several days, including the loading of fuel. In late August, operations were partially resumed. The Ust-Luga Complex refines stable gas into jet fuel, fuel oil, fuel oil component for ships (fuel oil), and gasoil. After the shutdown of two out of three units, the company had to look for other export routes. Sources said that the condensate formed part of the 140,000-tonne cargo from Novorossiisk loaded on the vessel Tataki, 16 September. The condensate was blended with crude supplied by CenGeo, and exported as Siberian Light - a low sulphur crude grade that is typically shipped from Novorossiisk. According to LSEG data, Tataki has just left for the Suez Canal. It was not immediately known what the final destination of this cargo would be, but a source said that the vessel could be headed to India. Novatek and CenGeo didn't immediately respond to our request for comment.
Power sector drives development in US natural gas need: Maguire
The power sector is the only major consumer of gas that has actually revealed consistent need growth in recent years, and has ended up being the driving force behind natural gas need in the United States as consumption from other sectors declines.
Gas usage by power generators has broadened by around 3.5% a year over the previous three years, and is by far the biggest single source of gas use in the U.S., information from LSEG programs.
However by volume, development in natural gas usage by the power sector was surpassed by decreases in others. Average gas usage by power firms grew by 70 billion cubic feet daily in 2023, while average combined intake by market, families and industrial users fell by 114 billion cf/day.
Power companies accounted for around 44.4% of total domestic gas use in 2023, compared to around 29% by market, 15.5% by families and 11% by commercial users.
Commercial gas demand has actually declined by around 0.3% a year over the previous three years, while property and commercial gas demand has shrunk by around 0.5% and 0.7% yearly respectively, according to LSEG's gas demand designs.
The growing concentration of gas usage within the power sector poses a possible threat to the U.S. gas production sector, as further quick decarbonization of power systems might activate a. swift decline in gas demand for power while other major. intake sources are already in decrease.
ELECTRIC PUSH
A broad push to electrify specific heating and power systems. across homes and organizations has represented much of the cuts. to gas use outside power generation.
Electricity-powered heat pumps and boilers have replaced. gas-fired furnaces in scores of homes and services in current. years, although the speed of heat pump sales has actually slowed due to. high electricity rates and interest rates.
A record 4.3 million heat pumps were offered in the United. States in 2022, which was the very first year that heatpump sales. surpassed sales of gas-powered heaters in the nation,. according to the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration. Institute (AHRI).
Heatpump sales slowed to 3.6 million in 2023, and through. May of 2024 totalled 1.564 million units compared to 1.643. million units throughout the exact same months of 2023, AHRI information shows.
Regardless of the slowing sales pace, the cumulative effect of the. set up pumps on gas need has expanded, as each unit has. displaced some amount of direct gas intake.
POWER SWITCH
Estimates on the exact volumes of gas displacement. by heatpump are little, as many assessments made by industry. tend to be in terms of cost savings instead of in regards to the. volume of nonrenewable fuel source consumption that is cut.
Additional complicating the gas-impact calculus is the fact. that lots of heatpump setups typically replace one kind of. energy intake for another - from the direct burning of gas. in on-site boilers to electricity supplied by power firms.
And as that extra amount of electrical power must in turn. be created generally by power companies, the net impact on overall. gas usage in the United States remains difficult to determine.
That said, high-level need data expose clear trends.
Total U.S. natural gas usage during the very first half of. 2024 was up 2.3% from the exact same months in 2023.
Gas demand from power manufacturers was up 5.2% from the first. half of in 2015, while need from all other major gas users. was up just 0.5%, LSEG data programs.
Amongst non-power usages, gas need was 3.1% higher amongst. industrial users throughout the very first half of 2024 from the very same. period in 2015, however down 2.5% amongst residences and 1.2% lower. among commercial users.
That large divergence in use trends suggests that gas. consumption may be close to peaking among non-power users, while. continuing to broaden in the power generation sector.
GAS DEVELOPMENT
A consistent increase over the previous 5 years in the percentage. of electrical power generated from gas further illustrates. the importance of the power sector to the gas industry.
Natural gas produced 42.41% of utility-scale electrical energy. production in 2023, according to energy think tank Ember.
That share compares to 35% in 2018 and 24% in 2010, and. exposes how power firms have actually beefed up their dependence on natural. gas for electrical energy generation while gradually minimizing. generation from coal.
Coal's share of U.S. electrical energy generation was 16% in 2023,
down from 27% in 2018 and 45% in 2010, Coal information shows.
Electrical energy generation from solar and wind farms was 15.6%. in 2023, compared to 9% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2010.
A further constant expansion in eco-friendly electrical power. generation is anticipated over the coming years, which might help. power firms make further cuts to output from coal-fired plants. as part of emissions decrease objectives.
However power manufacturers look set to stay heavy users of. gas for electrical power generation, as gas plants can be. easily throttled up and down to match the ebbs and flows of. power need needs and to plug any generation shortfalls throughout. durations of low output from eco-friendly sources.
DEMAND PATTERN
Overall U.S. electrical power demand looks set to expand as more. energy end-uses become amazed and as total power. intake climbs from data centres and due to artificial. intelligence calculations.
Over the close to medium term, that higher power demand. outlook bodes well for the natural gas production sector, even. if direct gas usage in homes and commercial structures. continues to contract.
However over the longer run, the continuing concentration of gas. demand among the power sector positions a possible danger for the gas. industry.
A number of utility systems have plans to phase out gas-fired. generation and replace that power with a mix of. renewable resource generation along with battery storage systems. that can keep surplus sustainable power for later use.
Over the coming years, battery systems look set to stay. far too little to position any considerable danger to gas need.
But if utility-scale battery systems continue their current. quick development while dropping in expense, goals for wholesale. renewables + battery systems might come true and begin to. capture out gas from power systems in a years or two.
And if that occurs while other sources of gas demand likewise. shrink, a major gas supply surplus might emerge. << The opinions revealed here are those of the author, a. columnist .>
(source: Reuters)