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United States LNG export dominance evaluated as Europe's need wilts: Maguire

The United States has actually remained the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) so far in 2024, but a steep drop in selling prices and a sharp swing in export volumes to essential markets is most likely testing exporter cravings to remain on top.

The United States delivered a record 56.9 million metric loads of LNG throughout the very first 8 months of 2024, according to Kpler.

That went beyond the 54.3 million tons from Australia and 53.7 million tons from Qatar during that period, and marks just the 2nd straight year that U.S. exporters have topped global export rankings.

However, a more than 25% drop in typical LNG export costs throughout the first half of 2024 from the first half of 2023 dealt a heavy blow to export incomes, which stopped by $4 billion from the opening half of 2023 to $13.2 billion, information from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows.

That was the lowest half-year revenue overall because the first half of 2021, and marks a more than $12 billion fall from the second half of 2022 when U.S. export earnings from LNG peaked. The challenge of greatly falling profits was compounded by a. sharp reconfiguration in export volumes to crucial markets, which. saw deliveries to relatively close markets in Europe stop by more. than 20% while sales to more remote Asia rose by over 40%.

Continued soft LNG demand in Europe and further growth in. Asia may evaluate the resolve of U.S. exporters to stay the. world's largest LNG sellers, as a number of far-flung Asian markets. can be more cheaply provided by other sellers.

EUROPE'S FLUCTUATE

Europe's sudden dive in demand for LNG given that Russia's. invasion of Ukraine in 2022 snarled natural gas pipeline flows. to the region has actually been the primary catalyst behind the ascendancy. of the U.S. LNG export market.

From 2018 through 2021, U.S. LNG exports to Europe balanced. around 15 million loads a year, according to Kpler, however jumped to. around 55 million loads each year in 2022 and 2023 as Europe's. power companies scrambled to change lost Russian gas by whatever. methods necessary.

U.S. exporters mored than happy to help fill the gas space, lifting. overall export volumes by 95% from 2019's total by the end of. 2022.

Europe's share of the overall U.S. LNG traffic likewise roughly. doubled, from around 37% from 2019 through 2021 to almost 70% in. 2022.

An approximately 44% drop in deliveries to Asia during 2022 from the. year before also allowed U.S. LNG sellers to prioritize Europe. over all other consumers, and take advantage of the unprecedented. supply shock that roiled international gas markets throughout that period.

COOLING DOWN

U.S. LNG deliveries to Europe scaled even greater heights in. 2023, but the tone has changed in 2024, with deliveries from. January through August coming by 22% from the very same months in. 2023.

A crucial chauffeur behind that downturn has actually been a sharp climb in. European power generation from renewable resource sources, which. stay a concern for Europe's power companies moving forward.

Solar and wind power's share of electrical energy generation in. Europe leapt from around 16.4% in 2022 to 20.5% up until now in 2024,. according to Ember.

To give way for the greater renewables generation, fossil. fuel generation's share dropped from around 44.6% in 2022 to. 36.6% so far this year.

Coal-fired power has actually been the main fossil fuel source that. has actually been cut in Europe, however natural gas generation's share has. likewise declined, from around 26% in 2022 to 22% so far this year.

PIVOT

Lower gas dependence across Europe is bad news for U.S. LNG. exporters.

To make up for lower sales into Europe, U.S. exporters may. attempt to grow share in Asia, which is a clear bright area for. international gas sellers.

However, other significant exporters consisting of Qatar and Australia. boast far lower shipping ranges to crucial Asian markets, on top. of competitive gas liquefaction charges.

Deliveries to India, for instance, can take 5 times longer. from Cove Point in the U.S. than from Ras Laffan in Qatar, LSEG. information programs.

And Australia can ship LNG to southern China in under nine. days, compared to 35 days from the U.S. East Coast.

The U.S. LNG tanker fleet has the ability to deal with such long. ranges, however the stretched-out turn-around times would eat into. exporter earnings, and may result in the LNG export sector. calling back deliveries to just the biggest purchasers.

That sharper focus would assist maintain profits for the. sector, however may cause the U.S. losing the leading LNG exporter. area to its primary rivals that have expansion strategies currently in. location to serve fast-growing local markets.

<< The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a. writer .>

(source: Reuters)