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US LNG export supremacy tested as Europe's need wilts: Maguire

The United States has remained the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) up until now in 2024, but a steep drop in offering costs and a sharp swing in export volumes to crucial markets is likely screening exporter cravings to stay on top.

The United States delivered a record 56.9 million metric tons of LNG throughout the first eight months of 2024, according to Kpler.

That went beyond the 54.3 million lots from Australia and 53.7 million heaps from Qatar throughout that duration, and marks just the second straight year that U.S. exporters have actually topped worldwide export rankings.

Nevertheless, a more than 25% drop in average LNG export prices during the very first half of 2024 from the very first half of 2023 dealt a heavy blow to export earnings, which dropped by $4 billion from the opening half of 2023 to $13.2 billion, data from the U.S. Energy Details Administration (EIA) reveals.

That was the lowest half-year earnings overall since the first half of 2021, and marks a more than $12 billion fall from the second half of 2022 when U.S. export incomes from LNG peaked. The challenge of greatly falling earnings was intensified by a. sharp reconfiguration in export volumes to key markets, which. saw shipments to relatively close markets in Europe come by more. than 20% while sales to more distant Asia rose by over 40%.

Continued soft LNG need in Europe and further growth in. Asia may evaluate the willpower of U.S. exporters to remain the. world's biggest LNG sellers, as several remote Asian markets. can be more inexpensively provided by other sellers.

EUROPE'S FLUCTUATE

Europe's sudden jump in need for LNG because Russia's. intrusion of Ukraine in 2022 snarled gas pipeline streams. to the area has actually been the main catalyst behind the ascendancy. of the U.S. LNG export market.

From 2018 through 2021, U.S. LNG exports to Europe balanced. around 15 million loads a year, according to Kpler, but leapt to. around 55 million tons annually in 2022 and 2023 as Europe's. power firms scrambled to change lost Russian gas by whatever. ways essential.

U.S. exporters enjoyed to assist fill the gas space, lifting. overall export volumes by 95% from 2019's total by the end of. 2022.

Europe's share of the total U.S. LNG traffic likewise approximately. doubled, from around 37% from 2019 through 2021 to nearly 70% in. 2022.

An approximately 44% drop in deliveries to Asia throughout 2022 from the. year before likewise enabled U.S. LNG sellers to focus on Europe. over all other customers, and profit from the unprecedented. supply shock that roiled worldwide gas markets throughout that period.

COOLING OFF

U.S. LNG shipments to Europe scaled even greater heights in. 2023, however the tone has changed in 2024, with shipments from. January through August dropping by 22% from the very same months in. 2023.

An essential motorist behind that slowdown has actually been a sharp climb in. European power generation from renewable energy sources, which. stay a concern for Europe's power companies moving forward.

Solar and wind power's share of electrical power generation in. Europe jumped from around 16.4% in 2022 to 20.5% up until now in 2024,. according to Coal.

To make way for the greater renewables generation, fossil. fuel generation's share dropped from around 44.6% in 2022 to. 36.6% up until now this year.

Coal-fired power has been the primary nonrenewable fuel source that. has been cut in Europe, but gas generation's share has. likewise decreased, from around 26% in 2022 to 22% so far this year.

PIVOT

Lower gas reliance throughout Europe is bad news for U.S. LNG. exporters.

To offset lower sales into Europe, U.S. exporters may. attempt to grow share in Asia, which is a clear brilliant spot for. global gas sellers.

Nevertheless, other major exporters consisting of Qatar and Australia. boast far lower shipping distances to crucial Asian markets, on top. of competitive gas liquefaction charges.

Deliveries to India, for instance, can take 5 times longer. from Cove Point in the U.S. than from Ras Laffan in Qatar, LSEG. data shows.

And Australia can ship LNG to southern China in under nine. days, compared to 35 days from the U.S. East Coast.

The U.S. LNG tanker fleet has the ability to handle such long. distances, but the stretched-out turn-around times would consume into. exporter incomes, and might lead to the LNG export sector. dialing back shipments to only the biggest purchasers.

That sharper focus would help maintain earnings for the. sector, but might lead to the U.S. losing the leading LNG exporter. area to its main rivals that have expansion plans already in. location to serve fast-growing regional markets.

<< The viewpoints revealed here are those of the author, a. columnist .>

(source: Reuters)