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After a sharp rise in the Rhine's water level, ships can increase their loads
Commodity traders reported on Tuesday that rain over the Easter weekend has raised Rhine water levels. This allows vessels to carry more cargo even though the river remains too shallow for normal sailings. Traders said that the extreme lack of rainfall in March and April led to low water levels, which hampered April shipping along the entire river south of Duisburg, Cologne and the chokepoint at Kaub. The traders reported that in the northern regions of Duisburg, vessels could sail up to 80% full as opposed to only 50% last week. Rain in southern Germany has raised the water level at Kaub, allowing ships to carry 1,400 tons of cargo. This is up from 870 tons in April. The vessels are now more than half-full. Traders said that the forecast rain in Rhine River catchment areas could lead to further improvements. In shallow water, vessel operators charge surcharges to compensate for not fully loading the vessels. This increases costs for cargo owners. The cost of shipping cargo increases when it is shipped on multiple vessels rather than one. The Rhine is a major shipping route for grains, minerals and ores. It also carries coal, oil products including heating oil, as well as other commodities. German companies will face production and supply problems in the summer of 2022, after a heatwave and drought caused Rhine water levels to drop unusually. Reporting by Michael Hogan Editing David Goodman
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Maguire: China sets new clean energy milestones in Q1 2025
China's electricity system set several records for clean energy production during the quarter from January to March 2025. This has cemented the country's leadership in the world of clean electricity. According to Ember, the energy think-tank, the total clean electricity generated in China for the first quarter was 951 terawatts hours (TWh). This was the highest total for the first quarter ever recorded, up 19% compared to the same period of 2024. It also exceeded the growth rate of clean energy in other major markets including Europe and the United States. The increase in clean production also helped to lift its share in China's generation mix from 34% to a new record of 39% during the quarter of January to March, compared to 34% for the same period last year. SOLAR SHINES The wind farms in China were the largest source of clean energy during the first quarter of 2025. Their 307 TWh generated a record share of 13% of the total power generation. Solar farms, however, have seen the biggest overall increase in output since the first quarter of 2024. Total solar generation has increased by 48%, to 254 TWh. Solar generated a record-breaking 10% of the total electricity. Solar and wind energy assets generated more electricity during January-March than hydro dams, for the first ever. This ensures that renewable sources of energy continue to grow their share in China’s generation mix. The first quarter 2025 saw a 7% increase in hydro power production compared to the same period of 2024, at 226 TWh. Nuclear output increased by 13% at 117TWh. FOSSIL CUTTS China's utilities have been able to lower output of coal and natural-gas plants from January to March compared to the previous year, thanks to a sharply increased supply of clean energy. The coal-fired electricity output, which is still China's biggest source of power, has fallen by 4% since the first quarter of 2024. It now stands at 1,421 TWh. Coal's share in the mix of generation fell from 63% to 58%. The output of gas-fired plants also fell by 4%, to 67 TWh. Total fossil fuel production was also down by 4%, to 2,445TWh. GLOBAL TRENDS Clean power production in China is growing at a faster rate than in any other major market. In the United States, clean energy generation increased by just 6% from January to March of the previous year. Meanwhile, in Europe clean power production decreased by 5%. This year's pace of growth follows China's 15 percent expansion in clean-generation in 2024. That was more than twice the 6% increase posted by Europe and the United States in the same year. China's lead in clean generation over Europe and the United States is set to grow further in the months to come as China's massive solar farms increase overall clean output until its annual peak around the month of July or August. The use of fossil fuels in China is also expected to increase as summer approaches, due to the increased demand for air-conditioning systems that consume a lot of power. China's clean power generation will continue to grow, as the production of solar and hydroelectric dams will peak in the summer. These are the opinions of the author who is a market analyst at.
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Documents show that Vietnam cracks down on fraudulent US exports
According to a document reviewed, the Vietnam trade ministry issued a directive to crackdown on illegal transshipment of goods into the United States or other trading partners in order to avoid high U.S. Tariffs. In the directive, dated April 15 and in effect that day, the ministry said that trade fraud would likely increase due to growing tensions caused by U.S. Tariffs. It said that if fraud was not prevented it would "make it more difficult to avoid the sanctions that countries would apply to imported products" The directive didn't name specific countries from which transshipment fraud could originate. Vietnam imports almost 40% of its goods from China, and Washington has accused Beijing of using Vietnam as a hub for transhipment to avoid U.S. duty. The Trump administration has imposed "reciprocal tariffs" of 46% on Vietnam. These are currently paused, but if they were to be applied, it could severely undermine a model for growth that relies heavily on exports into the United States, and huge investments by foreign manufacturers in the country. The directive instructs officials from the Trade Ministry, Customs, and other agencies to intensify their supervision and inspection of imported goods in order to determine their origin. "Especially imported raw materials that are used for production and exported". The Vietnamese Trade Ministry's document stated that new stricter procedures will be implemented for inspecting factories and supervising the release of labels "Made in Vietnam". "Especially for enterprises where the number of certificates of origin applications has suddenly increased," it said. The directive instructs officials to take "specific measures" to prevent illegal transshipment when necessary. The directive was released after an urgent meeting of the Vietnam government office in early April, just hours after U.S. president Donald Trump announced duties.
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Environmental lawyers are ready to take on Trump's deregulation of energy
Environmental groups in the United States say they're hiring lawyers and getting ready for a legal battle with the Trump administration, which is attempting to bypass federal regulations regarding oil, gas, and coal development. The preparations are a test of the Trump administration’s strategy, which has been relying on executive orders and emergency powers to cut down what they see as obstacles to an increase in fossil fuel energy. Trump has issued an executive directive directing agencies that they must sunset all existing energy regulations by the end of next year. In a separate memo, he said agencies could repeal certain regulations, without consulting the public. Federal officials also informed companies via email that they could seek exemptions from clean air regulations. They exempted several companies from mercury and toxic air limits. A controversial oil pipeline tunnel was fast-tracked in the Great Lakes. Attorneys and policy experts have said that these actions are a test of existing law. This includes provisions of the Administrative Procedure Act of 1947, which requires agencies to publish notices of final and proposed regulations, and to allow public comment. In an interview, Dan Goldbeck said, "They are really kicking it up a notch now." Goldbeck is the director of regulatory policies at the conservative think-tank American Action Forum. "They're trying to push a few of these legal doctrines to see if it can be implemented into a new policy frame." Earthjustice, an environmental group, said that it was hiring lawyers to prepare for a legal challenge against some of Trump's actions. It said that the organization currently has 10 positions open for lawyers and plans to add to its stable of 200 lawyers this year. Earthjustice, along with other groups, say that they are ready to file a lawsuit as soon as Trump's agencies implement his directives. This includes his order to sunset federal energy regulations. Sambhav Sankar is Earthjustice's senior vice president of programs. He said that the proposal by President Trump was almost comically illegal. "If any federal agency tries to do this, we will see them in court." Nevertheless, the groups say that it is important to wait until the administration acts on Trump's orders. David Bookbinder is the director of law, policy and environmental integrity at the Environmental Integrity Project. The White House has not responded to a question about possible legal challenges by environmental groups. Bookbinder, of EIP, said that the Interior and Commerce Departments gave environmental lawyers a target last week when they proposed a new rule allowing agencies to approve projects that destroy the habitats for endangered species. He said, "This is in a sense what we've been looking forward to - not the big announcements from the White House." Zach Pilchen, senior attorney at Holland & Knight and former member of the Trump and Biden Administrations, says that it may be more difficult to challenge the exemptions from mercury and toxic air pollutants for coal-fired plants. Trump relied upon a provision in the Clean Air Act, passed by Congress back in 1990. This allows the president to exempt some sources from the law for reasons of national security or if mitigation technology isn't available. Pilchen said, "This is new territory." "That provision has not been tested, and it may be difficult to challenge in court." He stated that the Clean Air Act contains a judicial-review provision governing lawsuits involving actions taken by the Environmental Protection Agency Administrator, but does not mention specific actions taken by the President. Earthjustice's Sankar stated that his organization anticipates having to challenge the actions of the administration repeatedly in the coming years. He cited the government's refusal to comply with a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that ordered it to facilitate the return of a Salvadoran deported by mistake and currently held in a notorious El Salvador prison. Sankar said that, "normally, in impact litigation, after you win, the government will change its behavior in similar cases in order to conform to the precedent." He added that he didn't expect the administration to continue to follow precedent. (Reporting from Nichola Groom, Los Angeles; Valerie Volcovici, Washington; Editing by Marguerita Choy)
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Minister: Morocco will begin the tendering process for LNG Terminal
Leila Benjamin, the Energy Minister, said that Morocco will issue a statement of interest within a few weeks for a terminal of liquefied gas near Nador in eastern Mediterranean. Benali informed members of the parliament that "this week we will launch a call for expressions of interest in developing the first phase" of the Nador natural gas terminal. Morocco is looking to natural gas as a way to diversify its energy sources and move away from coal. It also continues to push forward with its renewable energy plans, aiming to achieve 52% of the total installed capacity by 2030 from 45% at present. She said that the new infrastructure would be connected to an existing pipeline used by Morocco to import 0.5 billion cubic metres (bcms) of gas from Spanish Terminals. She said that the terminal would be connected to industrial zones near Kenitra and Mohammedia in the northwestern Atlantic, but did not provide any further details. In May, citing a ministry official, it was reported that the new infrastructure would be a floating storage unit and regasification (FSRU), located at the deepwater Nador West Med Port, which is currently being constructed. The ministry did not respond to a comment request immediately. According to estimates by the ministry, Morocco's gas demand is expected to grow to 8 billion cubic meters in 2027. It currently stands at 1 billion cubic metres. Benali reported that, on the same date, Morocco's electric utility (ONEE), adopted a plan for 2025-2030 to increase installed electricity capacity by 15 gigawatts. This includes 13 GW of renewable energy. She said that this will require a total of 120 billion dirhams (13 bln dollars) in investment. (Reporting by Ahmed Eljechtimi Editing by Marguerita Choy) (Reporting and Editing by Marguerita Chôy)
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Patrushev, a Kremlin hawk, says that trust between Russia and the U.S. needs to be restored
Nikolai Patrushev is one of the Kremlin’s senior hawks. He said that the trust between Russia and the United States, the "great powers", should be restored. Moscow was also ready to resume its cooperation with America on the Arctic. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has shifted his focus towards Russia to try to end the three year war in Ukraine. He and his administration see China as the greatest threat to the United States. The Kremlin welcomed the opportunity to restore relations with the United States, after the confrontation about Ukraine caused what diplomats in both countries described as the worst crisis ever experienced by their relationship. The Kommersant reported that Kremlin aide Patrushev - a Cold War veteran who helped to formulate the Kremlin’s national security policy - said: "Russia and the United States as great powers have historically borne special responsibility for world fate." "And our experience over the past decades, or even centuries, shows that we have always been able to overcome our differences in the most difficult crisis situations." Trump's pivot toward Russia has deeply worried many of Washington's traditional European allies who fear Washington could turn its back on Europe. Patrushev is a former KGB agent from St Petersburg, where Vladimir Putin was also born. He said that Russia would be ready to resume its cooperation with the U.S. on the Arctic. (Reporting and editing by Guy Faulconbridge; reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin)
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Phillips 66 takes aim at Elliott for Citgo's conflict of interest during board fight
Phillips 66 wrote in a Monday letter that activist investor Elliott Investment Management must abandon its efforts to split up the energy company Phillips 66, as it has a conflict of interest with a separate attempt to buy one of Phillips 66's competitors. This salvo is part of a bitter spat that will reach a boiling point at a shareholders meeting next month. Phillips 66 argued against Elliott's thesis of break-up in the letter by claiming that the investment firm had a conflict due to its separate attempts to purchase Citgo Petroleum. Citgo's parent is being sold through a court-supervised public auction. The court re-ran the auction after creditor challenges. Gregory Goff, CEO of Amber Energy, said that he bought a stake in Phillips 66 on April 9. He also backed Elliott’s campaign. Phillips 66 wrote in a letter on Monday that "this conflict is concerning, because Amber Energy executives actively support Elliott's cause to undermine Phillips 66’s strategy." Citgo, the seventh-largest refiner in the United States, is owned by Phillips 66. A Elliott spokesperson responded to a comment request by pointing to a regulatory filing dated April 10. The document stated that Goff’s work with Elliott was "hidden to no one and in no manner represents a conflict, diminishes his independence of views, or impairs its ability to help Phillips 66 grow into a stronger, valuable company". Elliott has nominated four directors for the May 21, 2018 meeting. This is part of a larger campaign, which also includes urging Phillips 66's to sell its midstream division or consider spinning it off and to divest other assets in order to concentrate on its refining operations and increase its share price. Elliott announced that it had invested more than $2.5billion in Phillips 66. This is the second attempt by the investment firm to push for change at Phillips 66. A first effort in early 2024 ended with the addition of a company board member who was endorsed by Elliott. (Reporting from David French in New York, Editing by Leslie Adler & Jan Harvey)
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US Supreme Court rejects CSX's bid to revive antitrust lawsuit against Norfolk Southern
The U.S. Supreme Court refused on Monday to hear the freight rail giant CSX’s bid to revive an antitrust suit accusing Norfolk Southern of restricting illegally access to a major East Coast terminal in Virginia. CSX lost hundreds of millions in profits. The Justices rejected an appeal from CSX against a ruling by a lower court last year that said the Jacksonville, Florida based company had sued too late and missed a four-year window for bringing claims under U.S. Antitrust Law. CSX argued that the statute of limitation should not apply to its lawsuit. CSX filed a lawsuit against Norfolk Southern in Virginia in 2018. The court accused the rival shipper, Norfolk Southern, of conspiring to charge excessive fees for services at Virginia’s Norfolk International Terminals - one of the East Coast's most important terminals. Norfolk Terminal is used by large international container ships to unload cargo on trains and trucks bound for inland destinations. Norfolk & Portsmouth Belt Line is a small railroad, majority owned by Norfolk Southern, that provides track and "switching services" at the terminal. CSX doesn't own the tracks at docks, so it has to pay for access. The suit alleged that Norfolk Southern, Norfolk & Portsmouth Belt Line and Norfolk Southern in 2009 had set a $210 track rate per railcar that is still in effect today. According to the CSX suit, Norfolk Southern's advantage allowed it to artificially raise prices for ocean carriers who rely on Norfolk terminal. CSX claims it is prohibited from entering profitable contracts with ocean carriers. CSX stated that Norfolk Southern's practice to allegedly overcharge for terminal access continued each day it was in place. Therefore, the four-year statute should not have barred the filing of a lawsuit. Richmond, Virginia's 4th U.S. In 2024, the Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a court's dismissal of CSX lawsuit. The 4th Circuit ruled that Norfolk Southern's rail charges did not "inflict any new harm causing a new injury to CSX in the limitations period." In its appeal to Supreme Court, CSX claimed that the 4th Circuit decision created an immunity shield which allows Norfolk Southern to sidestep competition at their terminal in Norfolk. Norfolk Southern, in its submission to the Supreme Court said CSX had "sat on their hands" for 9 years before filing a suit. Norfolk Southern stated that the 4th Circuit correctly determined that the date 2009 when the rate was established "was outside of the statutes of limitations and that maintaining this rate was an inaction which did not retrigger statutes of limitations on a day-to-day basis."
U.S. gas markets point to steep price increase in 2025: Maguire
The northern hemisphere summertime has not yet officially completed, however United States gas markets are currently sizing up supply and demand balances for this winter season and the next year, and show that greatly higher rates might emerge.
Forward markets for Henry Center futures, the benchmark U.S. natural gas price, indicate that rates will balance $3.20 per million British thermal systems (mmBtu) in 2025, compared to an average of $2.22 so far this year, data from LSEG programs.
If understood, that approximately 44% year-on-year price increase would be the steepest annual climb given that 2022, and could intensify energy product inflation trends in spite of a downturn in broader rate gains in the United States.
MOOD SWING
The bullish outlook in forward markets contrasts with a. fairly downbeat mood in U.S. gas markets so far in 2024.
U.S. futures plumbed 4-year lows in the spring as major. storage hubs emerged from last winter season with puffed up stockpiles. after mild temperatures during the generally coldest months. of the year cut gas use for heating.
Stock levels have stayed around 10% above the. long-term average given that, and have restricted cost development. throughout this previous summer season even as greater need for cooling. systems raised nationwide gas usage in July and August.
Prices then dropped around 3% on Monday on expectations that. a storm forecast to strike Louisiana later on this week would cut gas. need by triggering power interruptions and minimized gas usage by liquefied. gas (LNG) export plants.
Additional storms off the Louisiana coast this fall will. likely make additional disruptions to crucial gas need centers in the. area, even as gas supply centers further inland continue to. run at near record levels.
Through the first eight months of 2024, average U.S. dry gas. production hit a record of 102.5 billion cubic feet per day. ( Bcf/d), according to LSEG.
That total was up around 0.3% from the same months in 2023,. and is 9.5% above the average daily production rate from 2020. through 2022.
For 2024 as an entire, production is anticipated to average 103. Bcf/d, and then increase to a new record of 105 Bcf/d in 2025,. according to the United States Energy Information Administration. ( EIA).
NEED DRIVERS
Gas usage is also set to scale brand-new heights moving forward.
Power production, commercial processes and liquefied natural. gas (LNG) exports are the key drivers of U.S. natural gas use.
The power sector accounts for around 38% of overall U.S. gas. demand, while market consumes an additional 32%, according to. EIA.
The LNG export sector represent an additional 10%,. according to the Institute for Energy Economics & & Financial. Analysis (IEEFA).
The power and industrial demand sectors look primed for. even more growth in 2025 and beyond, as total nationwide electricity. usage continues to climb and output of manufactured products. and chemicals increases.
Gas use in U.S. power generation is likely to accelerate. over the coming years as more ineffective coal-fired power. plants are changed by gas-fired systems, which emit around 77%. less carbon dioxide per system of electrical energy than coal plants.
U.S. LNG exports also look set to broaden to brand-new records, as. new export terminals crank up operations and take advantage of growing. global usage of gas.
The volumes of U.S. gas consumed by LNG exporters,. referred to as feedgas, are expected to climb from around 13 Bcf/d. currently to 17 Bcf/d by the end of 2025, according to LSEG.
RATE ASSISTANCE VS PRICE DISCOMFORT
That 31% climb in gas use by the LNG export sector is. anticipated to help tighten up the U.S. supply of gas just as. gas usage in power generation also climbs.
In reaction, rates are set to trend higher, which is. reflected in the existing upward-sloping forward curve for the. U.S. natural gas market.
Higher gas costs need to in turn stimulate a supply response,. and encourage producers to lift output.
On the other hand, high gas rates may begin to trim. customer need, particularly amongst the cost-conscious commercial. sector which might amaze specific procedures if direct gas-use. expenses climb up expensive.
High gas acquisition costs may also consume into the need for. gas by certain LNG exporters, particularly those that do not. already have in location favourable terms with gas buyers in. overseas markets.
Presently, average gas rates in the Netherlands, a significant. European gas usage hub, are around 4.6 times above Henry. Center rates, and so can present a large profit chance for. U.S. LNG exporters with the means to provide cargoes.
By the end of 2025, nevertheless, that rate differential is. projection to decrease to 3.5 times the Henry Hub level, due in. big part to increasing U.S. gas costs, and may narrow even more. if European gas costs decline.
Gyrations in forward U.S. and worldwide gas costs can. be anticipated to make more changes to the economics of gas. production, use and exports moving forward.
As an outcome, global traders will continue to keep one. eye on far-forward gas costs in key markets, even if current. costs do not show much sign of strength. << The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a. writer .>
(source: Reuters)