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Maguire: UK's final coal plant shut down bodes well for US Liquefied Natural Gas exports

The United States exporters who are involved in the liquefied gas industry (LNG) will likely be pleased with the closure of the United Kingdom's last coal-fired plant, since this move secures the long-term demand for gas by the world’s sixth largest economy.

The UK has made significant progress in achieving its energy transition and pollution targets by closing the coal-fired plant of 2,000 megawatts (MW) in Nottinghamshire.

The UK will need to increase gas imports in the future, even though power companies continue to deploy renewables and other forms clean power output.

It's great news for LNG exporters from the U.S. They are the largest suppliers in the world of super-chilled fuel, and they are aiming to grow into European markets that are more accessible and less expensive than distant Asian buyers.

GAS DEFICIT

According to the 2024 Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy, UK gas consumption is higher than domestic gas production.

The UK will have a gas shortage of just over 29 billion cubic metres in 2023. This is the same as the gas production of Kazakhstan which was the world's 24th largest producer last year.

According to UK government statistics, Norway has historically provided a majority (41%) of UK gas imports via pipeline.

Over the last decade, however, a combination of pipeline capacity limitations and a desire to improve UK energy safety has led to a steady increase in UK LNG imports.

Importing LNG allows power firms to store more gas in the UK and act as a hedge for price and supply volatility caused by a heavy reliance on a small number of pipeline suppliers.

According to the Energy Institute, UK LNG imports will increase by 171% between 2018 and 2023 from 7.2 billion cubic metres (BCM) up to 19.4 BCM.

This growth was greater than that of Europe overall over this period. In volume terms, the United Kingdom ranked second only behind France as an LNG importer in Europe between 2018 and 2023.

US BOOM

The surge in UK LNG demand coincided with the efforts of U.S. exporters to expand their LNG sales outside Asia.

In the period 2008-2018, around 64% (or 63%) of U.S. exports of LNG was shipped to Asian countries such as Japan and China.

These countries are regarded as long-term markets for growth in natural gas and are therefore natural targets for all LNG suppliers.

Due to the longer travel times, U.S. sellers have a serious competitive disadvantage when it comes to serving Asian markets compared to Australia or Qatar.

According to LSEG, a trip from the U.S. East Coast down to Southern China can take up to 35 days.

This is almost four times as long as the route from Australia, and two times longer from Qatar. The U.S. vessels will be stranded on these routes for much longer than their competitors.

On European routes, the freight economics has flipped.

The journey time from Cove Point, on the U.S. East Coast, to Grain LNG's import terminal in the U.K. is approximately 11 days.

This is compared to the nearly 20-day delivery time from Qatar, and the 30-day delivery time from Australia. U.S. LNG ships can therefore offer more rapid schedules for deliveries and lower freight rates than their competitors.

In 2022 and 2023, when Europe's energy markets were booming after Russia's invasion in Ukraine, many buyers were willing to pay top dollar to ensure regular and fast LNG deliveries to avoid power outages.

CAPTIVE

U.S. Exporters have taken full advantage of the surge in European LNG demand in 2022-2023. They more than doubled shipments in 2022, reaching a record-breaking 52.5 million metric tonnes, and increased sales by an additional 8 percent in 2023.

Kpler data show that the pace of sales into Europe in 2024 has decreased by 22%. This is a blow for the short-haul routes from the U.S.

The sales to the United Kingdom have fallen by approximately 60% this year, the lowest level since 2021.

The U.S. LNG industry is fortunate that a 43% increase in LNG imports out of Asia has compensated for the volume lost to Europe and has driven overall LNG exports up to a record high this year.

The increased shipments to Asia are accompanied by longer journeys and longer turnarounds before ships can be reloaded.

The U.S. exporters of LNG will now be looking forward to a recovery in UK LNG demand. This could help avoid any power supply problems following the closure of the coal plant, and also fuel new growth in one the most lucrative U.S. trade routes for LNG.

(source: Reuters)