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A train derails near northern France, injuring at least 44 people
The French railway operator and French authorities confirmed that a train derailed in Normandy in northern France between Rouen-Caen on Friday night at around 7:30 pm local time. The head of the local authority Jean-Benoit Albertini told reporters that one of the injured was in a critical condition and had to be evacuated via helicopter. A spokesperson for the French police said that the train 'derailed after hitting an unknown object. The French railway operator SNCF said an investigation was underway to determine the cause of this accident. In a post on X, French Transport Minister Philippe Tabarot revealed that the train carried 180 passengers. He added that 140 firefighters were at the scene to help the injured passengers and drivers. The local authority,?prefecture Seine-Maritime, warned the public to avoid the area. SNCF announced that the train service between Rouen, Caen,?Caen, and Le Havre has been?suspended' and a'replacement bus services will be in place.
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USDA report report fails in its attempt to reverse EU wheat's decline
European wheat prices fell on Friday after U.S. grain forecasts did not provide enough positive news to counteract a bearish mood that had pushed the price to a two-week low in earlier'session. The daily session for December wheat traded on Paris' Euronext ended with a loss of 1.6%, or EUR241.25 per metric ton. The benchmark contract fell to a 2-week low at EUR240.25 earlier in the day, from a contract peak of EUR259.25. The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its monthly "supply and Demand" forecasts for world wheat ending stocks on Friday. These were slightly higher than average estimates. Investors who had built up a large position in wheat were encouraged to take profits by the report's publication. Prices were also affected by diplomatic efforts to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. Commerzbank, which announced its forecasts on Friday, increased their year-end wheat prices, citing the ongoing attacks by Russia and Ukraine against each other's port. The CBOT wheat price at the end the year is now $7, up previously from $6.50, and the Euronext wheat price at EUR240, up previously from EUR220. The market is still bouncing between the bearish expectation of a stable shipping agreement in the Black Sea and the bullish expectation that Russia and Ukraine will continue to attack ports and shipping. Importers from Egypt and Libya showed an interest in small quantities of 11.5% protein wheat at $300-$305 per ton C&F for shipment between September/October. According to a trader, Pakistan's wheat tender of 750,000 tons next week will likely?attract mainly Romanian or Bulgarian offers and possibly include Ukrainian wheat that is transported overland to Romania. Pakistan could cancel the tender if prices are well above $300 per ton c&f. As Rhine water levels dropped, ships were only able to sail partially loaded and transport costs increased.
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Poste Italiane acquires Telecom Italia for 66.6% at the end of the offer period
Poste Italiane secured a 66.6% share in Telecom Italia (TIM)'s capital. Calculations based on stock exchange data were revealed on Friday at the conclusion of the main phase for the takeover bid by the state-backed company. Poste, who had previously acquired a 20% stake in TIM, increased its cash component by 18%, to EUR1.97 a share. It also confirmed an exchange ratio of 0.218 newly -issued Poste?shares for each TIM share. At Friday's closing price, the bid was valued at around EUR13 billion. Borsa Italiana (the Italian stock exchange) reported that the take-up of the bid for the former Italian telephone monopoly had reached 58.2%. Poste waived its initial acceptance threshold of 66.67% for this upcoming?week. The offer period will reopen between September 21 and 25.
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Tesla targets European freight market by releasing long-delayed semi truck
Tesla will bring its Semi-electric truck to Europe, expanding its reach beyond North America. It is looking to gain a foothold in the heavy-duty market where competitors already sell battery-powered models. Elon 'Musk-led 'automaker will reveal European specifications and launch information at the IAA Transportation Trade Fair in Hanover Germany next week. It said in a posting on X. The European push comes almost a decade after Tesla unveiled the Semi back in 2017. The company initially planned to produce the Semi by 2019, but this timeline was continually delayed because the company prioritized the supply of battery cells for its passenger vehicles. Tesla began limited deliveries in late 2022 to customers such as PepsiCo, including the United States. Tesla announced in April that the first "Semi" had been produced on a Nevada high-volume line. In its shareholder update for July, Tesla only stated that Semi production would start in 2026 and removed an earlier forecast of volume production this summer. Tesla's German language website lists the version of?truck that has a range up to 550km (342 miles), with a combined gross weight of 40 tonnes and an energy consumption of around 1 kilowatt hour per kilometer. The 'company' said that the truck is able to take off with electric power up to 25 kW and weighs around 9,100 kg without a cargo or trailer. The truck can recover 60% of its range within 30 minutes by using Tesla's Megacharger network, which the company claims is capable of delivering up to 800 kilowatts. Tesla also cited dedicated service centers and route-based scheduling as features that would reduce downtime.
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QatarEnergy is seeking US LNG deals until 2031, according to sources
QatarEnergy has been in talks with several producers about securing multi-year U.S. contracts for liquefied natural gas through 2031. This is to replace the capacity that was destroyed by Iranian attacks, which will take years to fix. Two sources confirmed that discussions are underway with Venture?Global and Woodside. Sources said that the contract talks were part of QatarEnergy's effort to replace volumes lost from its Ras-Laffan facility, after Iranian strikes damaged two of its 14 gas-to liquids (GTL), and two LNG trains. QatarEnergy has also changed its approach from purchasing dozens of U.S. LNG spot cargoes in order to meet commitments made to some of their Asian clients. QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi stated in March that the repairs will sideline 12.8 millions tons of LNG capacity per year for three to fiveyears. QatarEnergy, which halted its production in March, has renewed force majeure notifications monthly. Most recently, they were extended to November. Further extensions are possible if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, according to the sources. QatarEnergy Trading - the trading arm of QatarEnergy - which managed 10 million tonnes of the company's portfolio of LNG - is looking to achieve 2-3 million metric tonnes per annum until 2031. A fourth source stated that "They'll have to buy anything they can." QatarEnergy has not responded to an immediate request for comment. Venture Global and Cheniere declined comment while Woodside LNG stated that it would not comment on speculations about the market. According to research firm Rapidan Energy, 25 million metric tonnes of LNG are available for sale in U.S. construction projects. Rapidan data shows that Venture Global has 10 mtpa of LNG uncontracted. Cheniere, Woodside Energy, and Sempra have 6 mtpa each available. Qatar's pursuit of LNG volumes to deliver to its?customers indicates that Qatar now sees a risk in their ability to export LNG over several years, said Saul Kavonic. He is the head of energy advisory and research at MST Marquee. He added that "it signals that Qatar?considers the Strait of Hormuz disruption may prove to be longer lasting and the damage to Qatari?LNG infrastructure is more extensive than originally hoped, and it may take longer to fix." Around 80% of Qatar LNG exports are usually exported to buyers in Asia. Many clients in Asia began to look for alternatives to Qatari Gas due to the uncertainty of when flows would resume through this major waterway. According to a fifth party, some market participants are testing scenarios where no Qatari gas will be available.
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QatarEnergy is seeking US LNG deals until 2031, according to sources
QatarEnergy has been in talks with several producers about securing multi-year contracts for?U.S. Three trading and industry sources said that QatarEnergy is negotiating with several producers to secure multi-year?U.S. Two of the sources cited said that discussions were held with Venture 'Global, Cheniere, and Woodside. Sources said that the contract talks were part of QatarEnergy's effort to replace volumes lost from its Ras-Laffan facility, after Iranian strikes damaged two of its 14 gas-to liquids (GTL), and two LNG trains. QatarEnergy has also changed its approach from purchasing dozens of U.S. LNG spot cargoes in order to meet commitments with some of their Asian clients. The company is now looking for longer-term solutions. QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi stated in March that repairs will sideline 12.8 millions tons of LNG capacity per year for three to five more years. QatarEnergy, which halted production back in March, has issued force majeure notifications every month. The most recent extension was to November. Further?extensions are possible, as the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, according to the sources. QatarEnergy Trading is the trading arm of QatarEnergy, which managed 10 million tons of LNG for the company. One source said that the company was looking to achieve 2-3 millions metric tons annually through 2031. A fourth source stated that "They'll have to buy anything they can." QatarEnergy has not responded to an immediate request for comment. Venture Global, Cheniere and Woodside LNG declined to comment. Saul Kavonic is the head of energy research and advisory at MST Marquee. He said that Qatar sees a risk in their ability to export LNG over several years. He added that "it signals that Qatar believes the disruption of Strait of Hormuz could be longer lasting and the damage to Qatari's LNG infrastructure has been more extensive than originally hoped and repair may take longer." Around 80% of Qatar LNG exports are usually exported to Asian buyers. Many clients in Asia began to look for alternatives to Qatari gas due to the uncertainty surrounding when flows will resume through 'the major waterway. According to a fifth party, some market participants are testing scenarios where no Qatari gas will be available.
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Oil tanker prices reach record highs after US and Iranian shipping attacks
This week, the cost of'shipping' oil in the largest tankers reached record levels following the most intense wave of attacks against shipping since the U.S. - Iran war began late in February. According to Baltic Exchange, the shipping rate for supertankers, also known as very large crude carriers (VLCCs), loading oil in the Gulf of Oman to be shipped to China, reached around 450 on Worldscale, which is?roughly?$11.50 per barrel. The rate is at its highest level since it was introduced earlier this year after the U.S. and Israel war against Iran. The increase in rates is a sign of 'how the Middle East conflict feeds into the wider economy. The rise in shipping costs could add to inflationary pressures, and increase costs for consumers and businesses already feeling the effects of a growing conflict. Iran announced on Wednesday that it had launched 10 attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, after the U.S. destroyed five Iranian oil tanks. Four Yemeni government officials said that the Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, reached Perim, a strategic island in the Bab El-Mandeb Strait on Friday, possibly tightening their hold on one of the world's most important shipping routes. Ioannis Pandimitriou, analyst at Vortexa, said that "repeated attacks between the U.S. Navy and Iran continue to push freight rates in the Gulf up to new heights." Papadimitrou said that the higher risk of operating in the Middle East Gulf and the surrounding area is driving up the Gulf of Oman's freight rates, out of fear of Iranian reprisals. This naturally reduces the number of available tankers in the region. The recent military escalation is having a wider impact, with VLCC rates also reaching record highs on the West Africa-Asia route.
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Travel chaos caused by the protest of Polish train drivers who slow down during safety demonstrations
On Friday, Poland's railways were impacted by widespread disruption as train drivers protested safety concerns and slowed down their trains. Around two thirds of services experienced delays on what is one of the busiest weeks of the year. A train that hit a truck and derailed at a level-crossing in central Poland Wednesday killed one person and sent 10 to the hospital. This is just the latest of a series of accidents caused when road users ignore warning signs. "We do not view this as protest but as an act of desperation," said Sebastian Piernik. He added that the union's demands for safety were?ignored in the past. "The fundamental problem is to ensure that drivers are held accountable for crossing the tracks at a time when there's a red signal." Train drivers at all level crossings slowed to 20 kilometres an hour (12 mph), as part of the protest that lasted until Friday noon local time. As a consequence, train operator PKP intercity reported that as of 12 p.m. (1100 GMT), 203 of 290 services?faced delays averaging 38 minutes. Alicja Kiman, a resident of Gdansk, said that she wasn't surprised by the protest because?motorists are?often reckless. She said, "I've seen garbage trucks break the barrier twice - forcing themselves in when it was closing." The government announced that it would introduce harsher 'penalties for drivers disregarding warning signals at crossings, and it spent hundreds of millions?zlotys to improve safety. Dariusz Klimczak, Infrastructure Minister, told reporters that "these changes will result in the risk of losing a driver's licence" for drivers who enter a road/rail crossing with RED light on.
Maguire: UK's final coal plant shut down bodes well for US Liquefied Natural Gas exports
The United States exporters who are involved in the liquefied gas industry (LNG) will likely be pleased with the closure of the United Kingdom's last coal-fired plant, since this move secures the long-term demand for gas by the world’s sixth largest economy.
The UK has made significant progress in achieving its energy transition and pollution targets by closing the coal-fired plant of 2,000 megawatts (MW) in Nottinghamshire.
The UK will need to increase gas imports in the future, even though power companies continue to deploy renewables and other forms clean power output.
It's great news for LNG exporters from the U.S. They are the largest suppliers in the world of super-chilled fuel, and they are aiming to grow into European markets that are more accessible and less expensive than distant Asian buyers.
GAS DEFICIT
According to the 2024 Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy, UK gas consumption is higher than domestic gas production.
The UK will have a gas shortage of just over 29 billion cubic metres in 2023. This is the same as the gas production of Kazakhstan which was the world's 24th largest producer last year.
According to UK government statistics, Norway has historically provided a majority (41%) of UK gas imports via pipeline.
Over the last decade, however, a combination of pipeline capacity limitations and a desire to improve UK energy safety has led to a steady increase in UK LNG imports.
Importing LNG allows power firms to store more gas in the UK and act as a hedge for price and supply volatility caused by a heavy reliance on a small number of pipeline suppliers.
According to the Energy Institute, UK LNG imports will increase by 171% between 2018 and 2023 from 7.2 billion cubic metres (BCM) up to 19.4 BCM.
This growth was greater than that of Europe overall over this period. In volume terms, the United Kingdom ranked second only behind France as an LNG importer in Europe between 2018 and 2023.
US BOOM
The surge in UK LNG demand coincided with the efforts of U.S. exporters to expand their LNG sales outside Asia.
In the period 2008-2018, around 64% (or 63%) of U.S. exports of LNG was shipped to Asian countries such as Japan and China.
These countries are regarded as long-term markets for growth in natural gas and are therefore natural targets for all LNG suppliers.
Due to the longer travel times, U.S. sellers have a serious competitive disadvantage when it comes to serving Asian markets compared to Australia or Qatar.
According to LSEG, a trip from the U.S. East Coast down to Southern China can take up to 35 days.
This is almost four times as long as the route from Australia, and two times longer from Qatar. The U.S. vessels will be stranded on these routes for much longer than their competitors.
On European routes, the freight economics has flipped.
The journey time from Cove Point, on the U.S. East Coast, to Grain LNG's import terminal in the U.K. is approximately 11 days.
This is compared to the nearly 20-day delivery time from Qatar, and the 30-day delivery time from Australia. U.S. LNG ships can therefore offer more rapid schedules for deliveries and lower freight rates than their competitors.
In 2022 and 2023, when Europe's energy markets were booming after Russia's invasion in Ukraine, many buyers were willing to pay top dollar to ensure regular and fast LNG deliveries to avoid power outages.
CAPTIVE
U.S. Exporters have taken full advantage of the surge in European LNG demand in 2022-2023. They more than doubled shipments in 2022, reaching a record-breaking 52.5 million metric tonnes, and increased sales by an additional 8 percent in 2023.
Kpler data show that the pace of sales into Europe in 2024 has decreased by 22%. This is a blow for the short-haul routes from the U.S.
The sales to the United Kingdom have fallen by approximately 60% this year, the lowest level since 2021.
The U.S. LNG industry is fortunate that a 43% increase in LNG imports out of Asia has compensated for the volume lost to Europe and has driven overall LNG exports up to a record high this year.
The increased shipments to Asia are accompanied by longer journeys and longer turnarounds before ships can be reloaded.
The U.S. exporters of LNG will now be looking forward to a recovery in UK LNG demand. This could help avoid any power supply problems following the closure of the coal plant, and also fuel new growth in one the most lucrative U.S. trade routes for LNG.
(source: Reuters)