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Asia spot prices flat amid muted demand, ample supply

The Asian spot prices for liquefied gas started the year flat, due to a lack of regional demand and an abundance of supply. This follows a 34% drop in 2025.

Average LNG price for February deliveries to Northeast Asia Industry sources said that the price was?estimated at $9.60 per mmBtu (million British thermal units), which is unchanged from last week.

Siamak Adibi is the director of gas and LNG supply analysis at consultancy FGE. He said that despite outages in Canada at LNG Canada, and in the U.S. at Freeport LNG, LNG supply levels in December were likely to reach new records.

He added that "weak Asian demand" has enabled Europe to accept?spot-cargoes with greater ease.

Masanori Odaka is a senior analyst at Rystad Energy. He said that the end-of-year holiday season also reduced trading activity. Warmer-than-average weather forecasts are expected in many cities across Asia and North America, which will keep a negative outlook on gas and LNG prices for January.

He said that the arbitrage between U.S. LNG and Asia was "deeply closed", meaning Europe would continue to receive U.S. LNG throughout most of the first quarter of 2026.

For this to change, the LNG spot price in Asia must rise by more than $1/mmBtu compared to the LNG prices in Europe.

S&P Global Energy's daily Northwest Europe LNG Marker price benchmark (NWM) for cargoes to be delivered in February, on an ex ship (DES) basis, was $9.112/mmBtu as of December 31. This represents a discount of $0.535/mmBtu compared to the TTF hub price.

Spark Commodities set the price at $9.173/mmBtu. Argus put it at $8.64/mmBtu.

Aly Blakeway is the manager of Atlantic LNG for S&P Global Energy. She said that while milder temperatures forecasts and a slower withdrawal rate in December have 'easened immediate pressure', Europe has entered winter with significantly lower storage levels than previous years. To stay 'balanced, she needs to bring in significant volumes of waterborne LNG through January and into February.

Blakeway added that the continent's dependence on LNG will?deepen as Russian pipeline gas, LNG, and regasification capacities continue to expand.

The LNG-TTF spreads may widen as Europe consolidates its position as a sink for global LNG surplus.

According to Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghanistan, in LNG freight, Atlantic rates dropped to $71,750/day while Pacific rates fell to $55,000/day.

Afghan said that the U.S. front month arbitrage for Northeast Asia via Cape of Good Hope has closed further and now points more strongly towards Europe. The arbitrage via Panama is also closing out, and it's pointing again to Europe. (Reporting and editing by Emily Chow)

(source: Reuters)