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UK's last coal plant shutdown bodes well for US LNG exports: Maguire

United States exporters of melted natural gas (LNG) are likely cheering the shutdown of the last coalfired power plant in the United Kingdom, as the relocation locks in longterm gas need by the world's 6th largest economy.

By closing the 2,000 megawatt (MW) coal plant in Nottinghamshire, Britain has ended up being the very first G7 country to end coal-fired power production and make significant progress versus energy shift and contamination decrease targets.

However the move likewise elevates natural gas to the UK's the majority of vital power fuel, and indicates the country will likely require to boost gas imports moving forward even as power firms continue to roll out renewables and other types of tidy power output.

That's excellent news for LNG exporters in the U.S., which are the world's largest providers of the super-chilled fuel and are targeting growth into European markets which are quicker and less expensive to service than more remote buyers in Asia.

GAS DEFICIT

UK gas intake has surpassed domestic gas production for the past 20 years, according to the 2024 Energy Institute Analytical Review of World Energy.

In 2023, the UK's gas shortfall was just over 29 billion cubic meters, which is comparable to the yearly gas output of Kazakhstan, which was the 24th largest gas manufacturer internationally last year.

Historically, the UK has actually depended on Norway to offer a bulk of the UK's gas imports by pipeline, and around 41% of total UK gas imports came from Norway in 2023, according to UK government information.

Nevertheless, pipeline capacity constraints combined with a. drive to improve UK energy security has spurred a constant rise in. UK LNG imports over the past years.

LNG imports enable power companies to increase the quantity of gas. that is stored within the UK, and can function as a hedge against the. rate and supply volatility stemming from heavy dependence on only. a couple of pipeline suppliers.

In between 2018 and 2023, UK LNG imports leapt by 171% from. 7.2 billion cubic meters (BCM) to 19.4 BCM, according to the. Energy Institute.

That growth surpassed that of Europe as a whole over that. duration, and in volume terms positioned the United Kingdom second. only to France amongst LNG importers in Europe from 2018 through. 2023.

US BOOM

This climb in UK LNG demand came at a best time for U.S. LNG exporters, who have actually been on a drive to diversify LNG sales. beyond Asia.

Between 2008 and 2018, around 64% of U.S. LNG exports was. shipped to Asian markets such as Japan, China and South Korea.

Those nations are thought about long-term growth markets for. gas, therefore are natural targets for all LNG exporters.

However, U.S.-based sellers are at a serious competitive. drawback compared to Australia and Qatar in serving Asian. markets, due to longer journey times.

The trip from the U.S. East Coast to Southern China, for. instance, can take 35 days, according to LSEG.

That is almost 4 times longer than from Australia and two times. the period from Qatar, and implies U.S. vessels are tied up for. far longer on those routes compared to their competitors.

The freight economics turned, nevertheless, on European routes.

The journey time from Cove Point on the U.S. East Coast to the. U.K.'s Grain LNG import terminal is approximately 11 days.

That compares to nearly 20 days from Qatar and 30 days from. Australia, therefore suggests that U.S. LNG shippers can provide faster. shipment schedules and lower freight expenses than their peers.

And during 2022 and 2023 - when Europe's power markets were. rising following Russia's invasion of Ukraine - lots of buyers. were happy to pay leading dollar for rapid and regular LNG materials. in order to avoid power failures.

CAPTIVE

U.S. exporters took full advantage of the boom in European. LNG import demand in 2022 and 2023, more than doubling shipments. to the continent in 2022 to a record 52.5 million metric loads,. and after that raising sales volumes by an additional 8% in 2023.

Up until now in 2024, however, the speed of sales to Europe has. contracted by 22%, dealing a blow to the short-haul service. paths from the U.S., Kpler data shows.

Sales to the UK so far this year are down. roughly 60%, and the lowest since 2021.

Fortunately for U.S. LNG sellers, an approximately 43% increase in LNG. imports from Asia has balanced out the volume loss to Europe, and has. pushed total LNG exports to a new high so far this year.

Nevertheless, the greater deliveries to Asia have come at the cost. of lengthier journeys and longer turn-around times before vessels. can get refilled.

Moving forward, nevertheless, U.S. LNG exporters will be hoping. for a rebound in UK LNG demand, which might help prevent any power. supply problems following the coal plant closed down, and fuel fresh. growth in one of the most profitable U.S. LNG trade paths.

<< The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a. columnist .>

(source: Reuters)