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Don't get too fired up about China's growing gas use: Maguire

China has enhanced imports of melted gas (LNG) this year to the highest given that 2021 and has lifted naturalgas fired electrical power generation to record levels.

At a high level, rising purchases and use may recommend that China is beginning to rely more on gas to create power and electrical power in the nation, and that further boosts in both gas imports and consumption are looming.

However, a closer look at China's electrical power trends expose that gas plays only a very little function in the generation mix, and that renewables and other tidy power sources hold much greater prominence when it comes to electricity production.

What's more, gas rates stay raised compared to power produced from coal and renewables, which is undermining gas' appeal as a power source among commercial companies which have been struck by China's sustaining home crisis and financial slowdown.

If smokestack companies continue to favour more affordable fuels for commercial applications while utilities prioritise renewables, there may be only really limited scope for additional natural gas usage boosts in China over the near to medium term.

A SMALLER SIZED PIECE OF A BIGGER PIE

Natural gas-fired electricity generation in China struck a. record 188 terawatt hours (TWh) over the very first 8 months of. 2024, Ash data programs.

That overall was 1.5% up from the very same months in 2023, and for. gas bulls was a sign of continued expansion of natural. gas in China's electricity generation system following a 6.4%. increase in gas-fired generation in 2023.

However, gas's share of overall utility-scale. electrical power generation declined to a seven-year low of 2.8% so. far in 2024, which is below a 3% share in 2023.

The disintegration of gas's slice of China's generation mix plainly. suggests that electrical power manufacturers have other concerns when. it comes to boosting electrical energy supplies.

Indeed, just bioenergy plants have a smaller share of. nationwide utility-scale electrical power supply, while production from. solar, wind and hydro properties are all a minimum of 3 times larger. than gas-fired output.

LNG IMPORTS

China's imports of LNG up until now this year have actually jumped by. almost 15% from the very same months in 2023, according to LSEG.

That growth rate easily went beyond the approximately 5% increase seen. into South Korea and the 2.5% development posted by Japan over the. same period.

The cumulative total of LNG shipped to China so far this. year was simply shy of 80 billion cubic meters, according to LSEG,. and the highest because 2021 for the very same period.

That upturn in LNG need does show higher gas use by. both power companies and other end users such as factories and. plants.

Nevertheless, the power produced from imported LNG is approximated. to be roughly $30-$ 40 more costly per megawatt hour than that. produced using coal, according to the Institute for Energy. Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

That indicates that only those firms that have actually already replaced. coal-fired boilers with gas-fired set-ups are burning that gas,. while those plants that can still utilize coal or other fuels for. power are burning that instead and keeping clear of costly gas.

A sustained recovery in total industrial demand will. likely trigger more LNG imports and utilize in China going. forward, specifically by those companies that don't have the methods to. use coal rather.

However unless LNG expenses come materially lower over the near. term, couple of other Chinese industrial users are anticipated to register. for a switch to gas - especially if China's overall economy. stays wobbly and commercial earnings scarce.

OUTGROWN

Gas's use prospects likewise look restricted in the electrical power. production realm.

Given that 2018, Chinese utilities have enhanced output from solar. farms by 378% and by 163% from wind farms, however have raised. gas-fired generation by only 36%.

What's more, energies have included nearly 14 times more. renewables generation capacity as gas-fired capacity considering that 2018,. and continue to speed up the build-out of solar and wind farms. throughout the country.

The resulting electrical energy production network is clearly. geared to prioritise clean power over fossil power, although. coal remains the biggest single fuel source in China's. generation system.

Certainly, cumulative electricity output from solar, wind,. hydro and nuclear plants hit new highs up until now this year, and has. climbed up 20% from the exact same months in 2023.

That strong jump pushed tidy power's share of the general. generation mix to a new high of 38%, and helped cut fossil. fuel's share to a record low 62%.

Given Beijing's pledge to end up being carbon neutral by 2060,. even more high boosts in tidy energy generation are required,. while only restricted boosts in fossil power are expected.

Further, China's energies mean to rely more on coal than. other fossil fuels as the primary pillar of electrical power output, and. are developing new coal capability to change outdated plants and. ensure grid stability as total power need continues to grow.

That leaves little scope for any significant rise to natural. gas's generation footprint in China, even if LNG imports and. gas-fired output continue to nudge gradually higher in the near to. medium term.

<< The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a. columnist .>

(source: Reuters)