Latest News

Maguire: US power system more fossil-dependent that China

Since June, utilities in the United States rely on fossil fuels for a greater share of their electricity generation than their counterparts from China. This undermines U.S. claims that they are leaders in energy transition.

According to Ember, an energy think tank, U.S. utilities rely on fossil fuels for 62.4% average of their total electricity production over the last four months.

This fossil fuel share is higher than the 60.5% in China over the same time period, which is the largest polluter and power producer on the planet.

The U.S.'s high fossil dependency occurred in the summer, when air conditioner usage is at its highest. In contrast, China's relative lower fossil dependency has been during a prolonged economic slowdown.

The higher U.S. fossil dependence highlights the fact that China has been much more aggressive in increasing clean power production, which has brought China closer to a peak of fossil power use than the United States.

The U.S. risks losing its credibility as a climate leader if it does not make rapid cuts in fossil power generation and increase the output of clean energy.

PATCHY PROGRESS

The global power providers have a two-pronged strategy to advance the energy transition. They are reducing the use of fossils fuels and increasing the supply of clean power.

According to Ember, the United States has prioritized clean energy generation over the last five years. The electricity produced from clean sources of energy has increased by 16% in the last year.

The steadily increasing total demand for electricity has made it difficult for the power companies to reduce their fossil fuel generation.

In fact, the fossil fuel-fired power generation in the first nine months 2024 was only down 0.8% compared to the same period in 2019. This equates to 1,967 Terawatt Hours (TWh).

The U.S. fossil-fuel use pattern has changed since 2019. Coal-fired power generation dropped by 34%, from 750 TWh in January to September of 2019 to just 497 TWh for the same period this year.

Coal's contribution to the U.S. mix of energy generation dropped from 25% in 2019 down to 15% this year.

As the total demand for electricity has been increasing each year, it was necessary to increase gas-fired production in order to compensate.

The gas-fired generation from January to September of this year was 1,450 tWh. This is an increase of 20% over the same period in 2019. Gas' share in generation has risen from 38% to 43%.

Electric vehicles, data centers and artificial intelligence applications have increased the overall energy consumption in the U.S. by approximately 5.5% between 2019 and 2024.

Outpaced

Ember data show that China's massive manufacturing-led economy faced a much steeper rise in its total power consumption in the last few years. Electricity consumption rose by almost 37% between 2019 and 2024.

China's utilities, in order to keep up with the demand growth, have had to increase both fossil fuel and renewable energy production by more than any major economy.

The fossil fuel-fired power output has increased by 23% between 2019 and 2024 to reach a record of 4,618 TWh. More than 95% of this power was generated by coal plants which produced 4,394 TWh.

The clean-powered electricity production - from nuclear plants, renewables and hydro dams has increased by 67%, to 2,834 TWh.

China's energy firms have been able to increase their overall power supply while decreasing coal's share in the mix of generation by boosting clean generation three times faster than fossil-based generation.

According to Ember, coal was responsible for 66% of the total electricity produced in 2019.

As power companies add renewables and other cleaner power sources to their generation systems, the coal share is expected to continue to decline.

CAPACITY CATCH UP

The most effective way for U.S. energy producers to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels is by increasing the clean generation capacity across the country.

Ember data indicates that between 2018 and 2023 the U.S. clean-generation capacity will increase by 40%, to 438 Gigawatts.

U.S. companies also reduced fossil capacities by around 4% during that period, mainly due to the closure of old coal plants.

China has increased clean energy generation by more than 100% in the last year and is on a clean energy development plan that is aggressiver than any other major economy.

China's clean-energy capacity is also growing, surpassing fossil capacity by around 20%. The U.S. clean-generation capacity is still around 35% lower than fossil generation.

If the U.S. wants to be a leader in climate action and decarbonisation it must develop a more aggressive pipeline of clean capacity that will shift the generation mix away sharply from fossil fuels.

(source: Reuters)