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Maguire: US clean energy output is affected by the hydro slump

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) data shows that a persistent drought in the western United States caused a drop of hydro power production in the United States to a low level not seen in 23 years.

The decline in hydro power generation is somewhat overshadowed this year by the increase in clean energy production in the United States.

The reduced production of hydro dams has led to a reduction in the amount of clean energy that can be dispatched at will. This has forced power providers to use record volumes of gas as a way to balance system demands.

The main sources of clean dispatchable energy, or electricity that can be quickly slowed down and increased to balance the system, are hydro dams, nuclear power plants, and geothermal power sites.

Grid operators use coal and natural gas-fired power plants when clean energy sources do not meet the system's requirements.

Hydro dams have been unable to meet the demand for power in the U.S. due to increased energy consumption by businesses, homes and data centres. This has forced utilities to increase fossil-fired production to keep pace with consumption.

Further drops in hydro output may lead to increased fossil fuel use by power providers, even though they are supplying record amounts of renewable energy.

Out West

EIA data show that the total hydro production in the United States for the first eight month of 2024 was 171,046 megawatt hours of electricity. This total was down 3% from the same period in 2023, and the lowest since 2001.

According to the EIA, roughly half of U.S. hydropower production is concentrated in three western states, namely California, Oregon, and Washington.

Washington generated the most hydro power, 42,143MWh, through August. California produced just over 24,000MWh, and Oregon produced 17,750MWh. The collective output fell by 3%, in line with the national output.

The main reason for the decline in hydro generation is a multi-year dry spell across the Western U.S.

The changing patterns of water usage in certain basins has also contributed to the depletion of reservoirs. Increased water consumption in residences and industries also leads to a decrease in water levels in electric dams.

DESCRIBING SHARE

The U.S. electric power mix has seen a decline in hydropower due to reduced hydro production.

According to the energy think tank Ember, from January through September, hydropower accounted for an all-time low of just 5.2% of total production of electricity.

This compares with an average of 6.5% during the same period between 2015 and 2023.

The nuclear-powered electricity production has increased by 1.3% this year.

The overall increase in electricity consumption is roughly twice that, which means that the share of nuclear power in the mix for electricity generation has dropped to 17.6%. This is the lowest level since at least 2015.

The rapid growth of wind and solar farms has helped fill some of the gap in clean energy supply left by lower hydro output.

Wind farms provided 10% of the electricity in the U.S. from January to September.

The total amount of clean energy dispatchable has not been able to keep pace with the growth in system demand this year.

Grid operators are now forced to use large volumes of natural gases to fill in the gaps, despite ongoing efforts to increase clean generation capacity.

If the drought continues to worsen in the Western U.S. it is likely that the amount of clean, dispatchable energy will continue to drop. This will lead to a greater need for fossil fuels as a way to balance the system.

(source: Reuters)