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Brazil 2026 Budget Sponsor proposes $1.9 Billion Exclusion for State-run Firms' Fiscal Target
Gervasio maia, the Brazilian congressman who sponsored the bill on budget guidelines for 2026, proposed to exclude up to 10 billion reals ($1.9 billion) of next year's fiscal goal for state-owned enterprises. According to Maia’s amendment, this amount will cover the expenses of companies that have an active and approved economic-financial plan. The proposal gives President Luiz inacio Lula da Silveira fiscal flexibility. It comes at a time when the postal service Correios is facing a cash crisis. Last month, it approved a restructuring program as its losses soared this year. This raised doubts over the viability of state-run Correios. The company reported a loss for the year to date of 6 billion reals ($1.13 billion), nearly three times the amount reported a year ago. The government has to compensate state-owned companies when they exceed their fiscal targets. This often means freezing federal spending. This is what happened with this year's Budget, when the government in November approved it. It was necessary to offset the 3 billion reais deficit that had been expected at state-owned firms due to Correios’ troubles. Maia removed from her proposal a clause on compensation. This effectively prevents the government from implementing it in the event that state-owned companies miss their targets next year. After the bill was passed, the change to the budget proposal for 2026 was announced ahead of the joint session of the Congress on Thursday. Committee approval is expected to be made on Wednesday. Correios stated earlier this week that the Treasury Blockage It was prevented from taking out a loan of 20 billion reais (3.67 billion dollars) from a bank consortium with a guarantee from the government because the interest rates exceeded the limit for deals backed by the state. ($1 = 5.3048 reales) ($1= 5.3133 reales) (Reporting and editing by Diane Craft; Marcela Ayres)
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Irish media reported that drones were spotted near Zelenskiy's flight path from Dublin.
Local media reported that an Irish navy ship saw up to five drones near the flight path for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as he arrived in Ireland on Monday to make a state visit. Irish Times reported that the sighting caused a major alert due to fears of an attempted interference with the flight path. The Irish Times cited unnamed sources who said that the aircraft was not in danger, despite its arrival a little early. The Ukrainian delegation arrived on Monday late and left late the following day, as part of an effort to drum up support for Kyiv in Europe as Russia continues its war against Ukraine. Recent drone flights in Europe have disrupted airspace operations. Their origin is mostly unknown. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, has called these incursions hybrid warfare. The Journal website first reported that drones were spotted at Dublin Airport. They said they arrived at the exact location where Zelenskiy’s plane had been expected to be, at the exact time it was due to pass. The authorities said they were conducting investigations to determine if the drones had taken off from a ship or landed on land. Both news outlets reported that they were first seen northeast of Dublin at a distance of around 20 km (12miles) from the airport. Ireland's Defence Forces stated that it could not comment on any specifics about any alleged incident for operational security purposes. A spokesperson stated that "however, the Defence Forces' support to An Garda Siochana's (police) security operation was successfully deployed by multiple means, ultimately leading to a successful and safe visit,"
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US investigations report that Waymo's self-driving car illegally passed 19 school buses in Texas
The U.S. government said Thursday that it had asked Waymo for more information after Texas officials claimed that Alphabet's self-driving cars had passed school buses illegally 19 times since the beginning of the school year. In October, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration launched an investigation after an incident that occurred in Georgia. A Waymo was not stationary as it approached a school bus while its red lights were flashing and its stop arm was deployed. The Austin Independent School District posted a letter on November 20, 2018 by the NHTSA. In the letter, they stated that five incidents had occurred in November following the announcement from Waymo that it had updated its software to fix the problem. They asked the company not to operate around schools at pick-up or drop-off hours until it was able to ensure the vehicles wouldn't violate the law. Waymo didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. A lawyer for the district wrote: "We cannot let Waymo continue to endanger our students as it tries to fix the problem." Citing an incident in which a Waymo was "recorded" driving past a school bus that had stopped only moments after the student who crossed in front, while still on the road, had been in front of the vehicle. A spokesperson for the school district did not respond immediately to whether Waymo had met this request. NHTSA was prompted by the letter to ask Waymo if it would comply to the request that self-driving vehicles cease operations during pick-up or drop-off hours for students. They also asked: "Was a software fix developed or implemented to mitigate this concern?" If so, will Waymo file a recall to fix the problem? In a letter sent to Waymo by the NHTSA on Wednesday, it demanded answers to questions about school bus incidents and software updates that address safety concerns. David Shepardson is reporting.
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US investigations report that Waymo's self-driving car illegally passed 19 school buses in Texas
The U.S. government said on Thursday that it had asked Waymo for more information after Texas officials claimed that Alphabet's self-driving cars had passed school buses illegally 19 times since the beginning of the school year. In October, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration launched an investigation after a Georgia incident where a Waymo failed to remain stationary as it approached a school bus that had its red lights flashing with a stop arm deployed. In a letter published by NHTSA on Nov. 20, the Austin Independent Schools District stated that five incidents had occurred in November, after Waymo claimed to have made software updates to fix the problem. The district asked the company to stop operations near schools at pick-up or drop-off hours until it could be ensured the vehicles wouldn't violate the law. Waymo didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. David Shepardson reports.
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Sources: Deutsche Bahn will return to profitability this year and next.
According to sources close the company, Deutsche Bahn will return to profitability this year and next, despite its underinvestment in trains and delays. After more than a decade underinvestment by the state-owned Deutsche Bahn, it has begun upgrading its tracks and overhead lines, as well as cutting administrative costs. This has led to major delays and cancellations across the country. Positive outlook is also a result of CEO Evelyn Palla's task to turn the company around. She took over on October 1. Palla will present her restructuring plan for the company at a meeting of the supervisory board scheduled to take place on Wednesday. Significant job cuts are expected. Deutsche Bahn has declined to comment. Sources said that the company expects a slightly positive profit before interest and tax (EBIT) in 2025 after a loss last year of 388 million euros. EBIT is expected to reach 500 million euros by 2026. The German Bahn also aims at reducing its net loss from 820 million euros to 180 million next year. Revenues are expected to stay stable, around 28 billion euro next year.
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Senators in the US want airlines to compensate passengers for delays with cash
A group of Democratic Senators introduced legislation on Thursday that would require airlines to compensate passengers for significant delays with cash. Mark Kelly, Ed Markey, and Richard Blumenthal, senators who are leading the charge, propose to mandate compensation that is in line with European Union (EU) and Canadian requirements. This includes mandating a minimum of $300 for delays of over three hours, and a minimum of $600 for delays of six hours or longer. This proposal was first reported on by after President Donald Trump's administration withdrew his predecessor's plan to force airlines to compensate passengers for flight delays caused by carriers. Kelly said that airlines must be held accountable for their actions when they leave travelers stranded and cost the American public money. "We are working to protect passengers so that they don't have to pay for cancellations or delays out of pocket." The U.S. Transportation Department, under the then-President Joe Biden in December 2024 sought public comments on writing rules that would require airlines to pay up to $775 per hour for delays exceeding three hours domestically. Airlines for America (a trade group that represents American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines) had previously criticised Biden's plan for cash compensation, claiming it would increase ticket prices. USDOT stated last month that the rule would create "unnecessary regulations burdens," which is why it wouldn't go forward. In the United States, airlines are required to refund customers for cancelled flights but not compensate them for delayed flights. All four countries - the European Union, Canada and Britain - have rules on airline compensation for delays. No major U.S. airlines currently guarantee cash compensation for flight delays. USDOT announced in September that it would consider rescinding the Biden regulations, which required airlines and ticket agents disclose service fees along with airfares. The Trump administration plans to also reduce regulatory burdens for airlines and ticket agents. This will be done by writing new regulations that define a cancellation of flight, which entitles the consumer to a refund. It will also revisit rules regarding ticket pricing and advertising.
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Mercuria's copper takeover from LME Asia increases supply anxiety
Four sources with knowledge of the matter have confirmed that commodity trader Mercuria plans to remove significant quantities of copper from London Metal Exchange storage facilities in Asia. Prices are rising on account of expectations of a shortage. LME copper prices reached a record of $11,540 per metric ton Wednesday, partly because of anticipated shortages in the coming year due to disruptions to mine supplies including accidents and incidents in Indonesia and Chile. Mercuria, a Swiss company, has cancelled or designated for delivery over 40,000 tonnes of copper stored in LME facilities in South Korea. Taiwan Sources familiar with the situation say that copper was discovered on December 2. The value of copper at current prices would be $460,000,000. Mercuria declined comment. The LME approved warehouses that store copper for the construction and power industries have historically low inventories, which has contributed to an increase in prices in recent months. Copper is a major export from the LME, and prices in the United States are high. This is despite the fact that copper has been exempted from the import tariffs which came into effect on August 1. On December 2, the total amount of copper warrants that were cancelled - documents that confer ownership - was 56,875 tonnes or 35%. LME stocks Mercuria's action helped to boost the premium for cash copper contracts over the three-month ahead price . On Wednesday, premiums, which have been on an upward trend since November, reached $88 per ton, the highest level since October 13. Comparatively, a contango or discount of around $35 was offered on November 19, Last year, the premium per ton was around $38. As the settlement date of December 17 nears, traders expect even higher premiums on cash contracts. Companies with short positions must find copper in order to fulfill their contracts against them or roll them over - a process known as a "short squeeze". According to industry sources, cancellations are more frequent in contango markets where the prices of contracts with longer dates are higher than nearby contracts. It is rare to cancel warrants in a backwardated market, as the premium is usually intended to encourage deliveries at the LME.
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Source: Kazakhstan's oil production declines due to damaged terminals limiting exports.
An industry source reported on Thursday that Kazakhstan's oil-and-gas condensate output fell by 6% during the first two days in December. This was after a Ukrainian drone attacked the Caspian pipeline consortium's (CPC's) Black Sea loading facilities. The CPC pipeline which transports over 80% Kazakhstan's oil and more than 1% global supply has suspended operations after an mooring near Russia's Novorossiysk Port was damaged. Later, it resumed supplying using a single point mooring instead of the usual two. As a back-up, a third unit is currently undergoing maintenance that began before the strikes. According to sources and calculations, Kazakhstan's oil-and-gas condensate output decreased in the first two weeks of December from a November average production to 1.9 millions barrels per day. The Kazakhstani energy ministry has not responded to a comment request. The drop in oil production is a result of the CPC drone strike on OPEC+ Member Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan exported 68.6 millions tons of oil to the world last year, and was the 12th largest oil producer. MINISTER SAYS ONE CPC MOORING IS NOW FULLY OPERATIONAL CPC's pipeline of 1,500 km (930 mi) carries crude oil from Kazakhstan's Tengiz and Karachaganak fields to the Yuzhnaya Ozereevka Terminal in Novorossiysk. CPC gets its crude primarily from fields in Kazakhstan, but also from Russian producers. Yerlan AKBAROV, Kazakhstan's Deputy Minister of Energy, said that on Thursday one of CPC's moorings was fully operational at the Black Sea Terminal and that there were no restrictions regarding oil transportation. On Wednesday, five industry sources said that Kazakhstan would divert more crude oil through the Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan (BTC pipeline) in December due the the reduction of capacity at CPC. Kazakh producers can also export crude oil to Russia via Novorossiysk, Ust-Luga and the Druzhba Pipeline and Germany via Druzhba. However, these routes have lower margins because they are dependent on the capacity and the performance of Russian pipeline operator Transneft. As Russia's pipeline network is overloaded after drone attacks on its refineries, the options for rerouting oil from Kazakhstan are limited. One industry source estimated that the CPC's loading capacity would be reduced by 900,000 tonnes per week when only using one SPM. (Reporting and editing by Guy Faulconbridge, Ed Osmond).
Maguire: Trump's oil and gas export boom could be a bust due to the trade spat with Europe.
Donald Trump's second term as president will make it easier for oil and gas producers to increase production and exploration in the United States. The biggest challenge may be finding local markets that are profitable for their products.
The new administration is expected to streamline the permit process for fossil fuel extraction and distribution, which should lead to an increase in U.S. natural gas and oil production. These are already at record levels.
This bodes well not only for the firms exporting liquefied gas, crude oil or refined fuels but also for those who export them. It will encourage the growth of U.S. exports.
Energy exporters are also at risk of being caught up in a trade war if Trump's plan of imposing steep tariffs on an array of imported goods causes retaliatory reactions in consumer markets.
EUROPEAN TARGET
The incoming administration is likely to target European nations with tariffs due to the U.S.'s long-standing trade deficit with Europe, which amounts to around $240 billion per year. This is a major irritation for Trump's allies.
Last month, President-elect Trump warned that Europe will "pay a high price" if it does not buy enough American exports. He also threatened to impose tariffs on all European goods.
According to Kpler's ship tracking data, Europe is the largest market for U.S. crude oil and LNG exports.
Since Russia's invasion in Ukraine 2022, Europe had to import record quantities of fuels and oils from other suppliers. The U.S. was the main beneficiary, shipping out record amounts of these commodities.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (Kpler) and U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. exports of LNG will reach over $30 billion in 2023. Two-thirds are destined for Europe.
EIA data shows that the U.S. will export crude oil worth $10 billion in 2023. Just under half of this amount will be sent to Europe.
Big Money
The U.S. oil and LNG shipments have led to a boom in profits for U.S. companies and valuable tax revenues for the U.S. Treasury, which the next administration wants to protect.
The high cost of imported energy has hurt European consumers as well and is speeding up Europe's transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
The slowdown of economic activity also affected industrial gas consumption and power consumption. This has led to a drop of more than 20 percent in Europe's imports of LNG in the first 10 month of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
Kpler data shows that Europe's crude oil imports from the United States have reached a new record in 2024, but overall crude imports on the continent have decreased by about 1%.
The overall gas consumption remains low, while the supply of crude oil from alternative suppliers is abundant.
IN THE CROSSHAIRS?
European policymakers have already planned responses to Trump's proposed tariffs. They are wary of the potential for a deterioration of economic ties with an important trade partner, while also embroiled in trade disputes with China.
Experts in Brussels, the home of the European Union policy arm, will be looking to avoid any further deterioration in the economy in the region and will most likely want to maintain strong relations with the U.S. throughout Trump's second term.
They will, however, not be afraid to propose tariff measures during negotiations, even if it is just to avoid being slammed by the blanket tariff threats of the U.S.
U.S. energy is likely to be a popular option for retaliatory duties, as Europe can easily source LNG and crude oil from other eager sellers. This will hurt U.S. producers without harming the consumers of Europe.
U.S. RISK
If Europe is somehow cut off in a trade dispute, U.S. exporters of energy products could divert cargoes to another buyer.
In reality, however, losing European buyers could be a serious blow for U.S. companies, particularly LNG exporters.
The U.S. LNG terminals located either on the East Coast of the U.S. or the Gulf Coast are more suited to serve a Pan-Atlantic route rather than a Pacific trade route to Asia.
It is only a fraction the distance to Asia and the time it takes to reach major buyers.
The trip takes about 12 days from Cove Point LNG Terminal in Maryland to Wilhelmshaven, Germany - one of Europe's major LNG import hubs - which is only a third the time it would take to travel to Guangdong, China - the world's biggest LNG buyer.
LNG sellers need to maximize revenue, and longer journeys means longer turnaround times.
While U.S. sellers can maintain their total export volume by redirecting cargoes to Asia if Europe becomes off-limits, they will most likely incur higher shipping costs and take longer to return if they have to go to Asia.
The same would be true for crude sellers if European buyers chose to buy from other suppliers, as oil exporters in the Middle East are already very well-served by global consumers.
The next U.S. administration will likely see an increase in the volume of energy exported by U.S. companies. However, there is a risk that they may face a trade dispute with European buyers who could make it difficult to sell those additional volumes.
(source: Reuters)