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Key worldwide natural gas prices set to keep increasing into 2025: Maguire

Gas prices in Asia, Europe and The United States and Canada have climbed up by around 30% to 50% so far in 2024, and look set to keep increasing over the coming months as forecasts for winter trigger higher heating demand in essential customer hubs.

Active restocking of rapidly-declining gas stocks in Europe and Asia should likewise stimulate strong gas need, even if temperature levels turn mild again in those locations.

That ought to guarantee gas market sentiment stays broadly bullish till the upcoming winter is over, which prices may have little scope to retreat till well into 2025.

High and rising gas prices in turn look set to raise power expenses across key international markets, jeopardising vulnerable financial development in China, Europe and elsewhere and raising fresh issues about inflation.

Quickly climbing up gas-fired generation costs likewise raise the likelihood of higher generation by coal-fired power plants, which are already less expensive to run than gas-fired plants but produce around 55% more emissions per unit of power output.

COLD WINTER COMING

Greater gas-fired generation for heating throughout North America, Europe and North Asia is the main near-term chauffeur of international gas costs.

Those regions represent over two-thirds of worldwide gas use, and are all set to get in the peak duration for heating demand over the coming months.

What's more, for the first time in years, average temperature levels across the key gas markets of China, Japan and mainland Europe are all set to slip listed below long-lasting averages this month.

This will snap the recent run of fairly moderate winter weather across those locations seen over the previous couple of years, and will lead to an integrated rise in gas-fired heating need that should even more lift gas market prices and sentiment.

In Seoul, South Korea, average temperature levels during December are set to typical around negative 2.17 degrees Celsius (28. degrees Fahrenheit), compared to a long-term average of unfavorable. 0.7 degrees Celsius, according to LSEG.

Shanghai, Tokyo and Hong Kong are likewise set to record average. temperatures of well below-normal this month.

The resulting increase in heating need throughout those greater. cities - home to over 100 million individuals - will. trigger faster burn rates of gas and coal, and an. accelerated make use of power fuel stockpiles over the rest of 2024.

In Europe, a drop in temperatures to below-normal levels is. likewise anticipated this month, particularly in the gas-heavy power. markets of Italy and Germany, according to LSEG.

STOCKS DRAW

The pick-up in gas usage throughout Europe has already triggered a. rapid drawdown in the region's natural gas stockpiles.

Between October 1 and completion of November, cumulative gas. inventories held in Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and France. decreased by 11%, according to LSEG.

That compares to relatively flat gas inventories over that. period in 2023, a 3.5% increase in gas stocks in 2022, and an. typical draw of just 2% over that duration since 2017.

The outright level of cumulative gas stocks in those. nations since December 1 is also the lowest for that date. given that 2021, which was before Russia's intrusion of Ukraine caused. cuts in pipelined gas streams to the area.

As a result, power firms will be under pressure to try to. rebuild those inventories over the coming months even as they. boost gas burn-rates due to increasing heating need.

In the United States, present natural gas stocks are. the greatest in over five years, according to the U.S. Energy. Info Administration.

Nevertheless, they are likewise on the cusp of the conventional. draw-down duration when stockpiles decrease by an average of 9%. over the last five weeks of the year.

This suggests that even the apparently plentiful gas stocks held. in the U.S. will tighten up substantially heading into 2025, and. will further underpin gas market sentiment.

FUEL CHANGING

Numerous power systems throughout Asia have the freedom to burn more. coal rather of gas to satisfy the higher heating need, and will. decide to do so if the expense of gas-fired generation increases too far. above coal generation.

In Japan, the expense of spot melted gas (LNG) is. currently around 44% above the average coal-to-gas switching. cost, and suggests that coal-fired power producers will be. incentivized to raise output faster than gas-fired producers.

Power firms in China, South Korea and other parts of Asia. that also have the versatility to utilize either gas or coal for. generation will likewise likely decide to raise coal output faster.

That might trigger a slowdown in the rate of gas use in. Asia, and set the phase for prospective cost pull-backs in Asian. markets.

Nevertheless, increasing gas demand by power companies in Europe will. likely more than balanced out any need drops in Asia, and guarantee. that worldwide gas costs stay fairly well supported through. the coming winter.

That implies that even though many crucial natural gas markets. have actually already climbed up by 50% currently this year, more cost. increases are likely coming.

The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a market. expert .

(source: Reuters)