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CANADA CRUDE-Western Canada Select trades at steepest discounts ever since March
The difference between the West Texas Intermediate benchmark futures and Western Canada Select futures, which is North American benchmark, has narrowed slightly on Thursday. However, it remains larger than ever before. CalRock reported that WCS for Hardisty, Alberta delivery in January settled at $12.85 per barrel, which is lower than the U.S. benchmark WTI. This compares to $13 Wednesday. The WCS discount on increased Canadian oil production has recently increased after spending most of the year in historically tight levels. This is largely due to the Trans Mountain expansion pipeline which has provided additional export capacity for Canadian oil producers. According to government statistics, the oil-producing province Alberta has set a record for production in 2024 with an average of 3.98 million barrels per day. The first 10 months of the year 2025 have been 3.8% higher than the same period of last year. * Oil prices fell globally on Thursday as investors waited for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. Meanwhile, the stalled Ukraine talks dampened expectations that a deal would be reached to restore Russian oil supplies. (Reporting from Amanda Stephenson, Calgary; Editing done by Maju Sam)
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Brazil 2026 Budget Sponsor proposes $1.9 Billion Exclusion for State-run Firms' Fiscal Target
Gervasio maia, the Brazilian congressman who sponsored the bill on budget guidelines for 2026, proposed to exclude up to 10 billion reals ($1.9 billion) of next year's fiscal goal for state-owned enterprises. According to Maia’s amendment, this amount will cover the expenses of companies that have an active and approved economic-financial plan. The proposal gives President Luiz inacio Lula da Silveira fiscal flexibility. It comes at a time when the postal service Correios is facing a cash crisis. Last month, it approved a restructuring program as its losses soared this year. This raised doubts over the viability of state-run Correios. The company reported a loss for the year to date of 6 billion reals ($1.13 billion), nearly three times the amount reported a year ago. The government has to compensate state-owned companies when they exceed their fiscal targets. This often means freezing federal spending. This is what happened with this year's Budget, when the government in November approved it. It was necessary to offset the 3 billion reais deficit that had been expected at state-owned firms due to Correios’ troubles. Maia removed from her proposal a clause on compensation. This effectively prevents the government from implementing it in the event that state-owned companies miss their targets next year. After the bill was passed, the change to the budget proposal for 2026 was announced ahead of the joint session of the Congress on Thursday. Committee approval is expected to be made on Wednesday. Correios stated earlier this week that the Treasury Blockage It was prevented from taking out a loan of 20 billion reais (3.67 billion dollars) from a bank consortium with a guarantee from the government because the interest rates exceeded the limit for deals backed by the state. ($1 = 5.3048 reales) ($1= 5.3133 reales) (Reporting and editing by Diane Craft; Marcela Ayres)
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Irish media reported that drones were spotted near Zelenskiy's flight path from Dublin.
Local media reported that an Irish navy ship saw up to five drones near the flight path for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as he arrived in Ireland on Monday to make a state visit. Irish Times reported that the sighting caused a major alert due to fears of an attempted interference with the flight path. The Irish Times cited unnamed sources who said that the aircraft was not in danger, despite its arrival a little early. The Ukrainian delegation arrived on Monday late and left late the following day, as part of an effort to drum up support for Kyiv in Europe as Russia continues its war against Ukraine. Recent drone flights in Europe have disrupted airspace operations. Their origin is mostly unknown. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, has called these incursions hybrid warfare. The Journal website first reported that drones were spotted at Dublin Airport. They said they arrived at the exact location where Zelenskiy’s plane had been expected to be, at the exact time it was due to pass. The authorities said they were conducting investigations to determine if the drones had taken off from a ship or landed on land. Both news outlets reported that they were first seen northeast of Dublin at a distance of around 20 km (12miles) from the airport. Ireland's Defence Forces stated that it could not comment on any specifics about any alleged incident for operational security purposes. A spokesperson stated that "however, the Defence Forces' support to An Garda Siochana's (police) security operation was successfully deployed by multiple means, ultimately leading to a successful and safe visit,"
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US investigations report that Waymo's self-driving car illegally passed 19 school buses in Texas
The U.S. government said Thursday that it had asked Waymo for more information after Texas officials claimed that Alphabet's self-driving cars had passed school buses illegally 19 times since the beginning of the school year. In October, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration launched an investigation after an incident that occurred in Georgia. A Waymo was not stationary as it approached a school bus while its red lights were flashing and its stop arm was deployed. The Austin Independent School District posted a letter on November 20, 2018 by the NHTSA. In the letter, they stated that five incidents had occurred in November following the announcement from Waymo that it had updated its software to fix the problem. They asked the company not to operate around schools at pick-up or drop-off hours until it was able to ensure the vehicles wouldn't violate the law. Waymo didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. A lawyer for the district wrote: "We cannot let Waymo continue to endanger our students as it tries to fix the problem." Citing an incident in which a Waymo was "recorded" driving past a school bus that had stopped only moments after the student who crossed in front, while still on the road, had been in front of the vehicle. A spokesperson for the school district did not respond immediately to whether Waymo had met this request. NHTSA was prompted by the letter to ask Waymo if it would comply to the request that self-driving vehicles cease operations during pick-up or drop-off hours for students. They also asked: "Was a software fix developed or implemented to mitigate this concern?" If so, will Waymo file a recall to fix the problem? In a letter sent to Waymo by the NHTSA on Wednesday, it demanded answers to questions about school bus incidents and software updates that address safety concerns. David Shepardson is reporting.
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US investigations report that Waymo's self-driving car illegally passed 19 school buses in Texas
The U.S. government said on Thursday that it had asked Waymo for more information after Texas officials claimed that Alphabet's self-driving cars had passed school buses illegally 19 times since the beginning of the school year. In October, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration launched an investigation after a Georgia incident where a Waymo failed to remain stationary as it approached a school bus that had its red lights flashing with a stop arm deployed. In a letter published by NHTSA on Nov. 20, the Austin Independent Schools District stated that five incidents had occurred in November, after Waymo claimed to have made software updates to fix the problem. The district asked the company to stop operations near schools at pick-up or drop-off hours until it could be ensured the vehicles wouldn't violate the law. Waymo didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. David Shepardson reports.
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Sources: Deutsche Bahn will return to profitability this year and next.
According to sources close the company, Deutsche Bahn will return to profitability this year and next, despite its underinvestment in trains and delays. After more than a decade underinvestment by the state-owned Deutsche Bahn, it has begun upgrading its tracks and overhead lines, as well as cutting administrative costs. This has led to major delays and cancellations across the country. Positive outlook is also a result of CEO Evelyn Palla's task to turn the company around. She took over on October 1. Palla will present her restructuring plan for the company at a meeting of the supervisory board scheduled to take place on Wednesday. Significant job cuts are expected. Deutsche Bahn has declined to comment. Sources said that the company expects a slightly positive profit before interest and tax (EBIT) in 2025 after a loss last year of 388 million euros. EBIT is expected to reach 500 million euros by 2026. The German Bahn also aims at reducing its net loss from 820 million euros to 180 million next year. Revenues are expected to stay stable, around 28 billion euro next year.
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Senators in the US want airlines to compensate passengers for delays with cash
A group of Democratic Senators introduced legislation on Thursday that would require airlines to compensate passengers for significant delays with cash. Mark Kelly, Ed Markey, and Richard Blumenthal, senators who are leading the charge, propose to mandate compensation that is in line with European Union (EU) and Canadian requirements. This includes mandating a minimum of $300 for delays of over three hours, and a minimum of $600 for delays of six hours or longer. This proposal was first reported on by after President Donald Trump's administration withdrew his predecessor's plan to force airlines to compensate passengers for flight delays caused by carriers. Kelly said that airlines must be held accountable for their actions when they leave travelers stranded and cost the American public money. "We are working to protect passengers so that they don't have to pay for cancellations or delays out of pocket." The U.S. Transportation Department, under the then-President Joe Biden in December 2024 sought public comments on writing rules that would require airlines to pay up to $775 per hour for delays exceeding three hours domestically. Airlines for America (a trade group that represents American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines) had previously criticised Biden's plan for cash compensation, claiming it would increase ticket prices. USDOT stated last month that the rule would create "unnecessary regulations burdens," which is why it wouldn't go forward. In the United States, airlines are required to refund customers for cancelled flights but not compensate them for delayed flights. All four countries - the European Union, Canada and Britain - have rules on airline compensation for delays. No major U.S. airlines currently guarantee cash compensation for flight delays. USDOT announced in September that it would consider rescinding the Biden regulations, which required airlines and ticket agents disclose service fees along with airfares. The Trump administration plans to also reduce regulatory burdens for airlines and ticket agents. This will be done by writing new regulations that define a cancellation of flight, which entitles the consumer to a refund. It will also revisit rules regarding ticket pricing and advertising.
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Mercuria's copper takeover from LME Asia increases supply anxiety
Four sources with knowledge of the matter have confirmed that commodity trader Mercuria plans to remove significant quantities of copper from London Metal Exchange storage facilities in Asia. Prices are rising on account of expectations of a shortage. LME copper prices reached a record of $11,540 per metric ton Wednesday, partly because of anticipated shortages in the coming year due to disruptions to mine supplies including accidents and incidents in Indonesia and Chile. Mercuria, a Swiss company, has cancelled or designated for delivery over 40,000 tonnes of copper stored in LME facilities in South Korea. Taiwan Sources familiar with the situation say that copper was discovered on December 2. The value of copper at current prices would be $460,000,000. Mercuria declined comment. The LME approved warehouses that store copper for the construction and power industries have historically low inventories, which has contributed to an increase in prices in recent months. Copper is a major export from the LME, and prices in the United States are high. This is despite the fact that copper has been exempted from the import tariffs which came into effect on August 1. On December 2, the total amount of copper warrants that were cancelled - documents that confer ownership - was 56,875 tonnes or 35%. LME stocks Mercuria's action helped to boost the premium for cash copper contracts over the three-month ahead price . On Wednesday, premiums, which have been on an upward trend since November, reached $88 per ton, the highest level since October 13. Comparatively, a contango or discount of around $35 was offered on November 19, Last year, the premium per ton was around $38. As the settlement date of December 17 nears, traders expect even higher premiums on cash contracts. Companies with short positions must find copper in order to fulfill their contracts against them or roll them over - a process known as a "short squeeze". According to industry sources, cancellations are more frequent in contango markets where the prices of contracts with longer dates are higher than nearby contracts. It is rare to cancel warrants in a backwardated market, as the premium is usually intended to encourage deliveries at the LME.
Global thermal coal exports and power use to strike brand-new highs in 2024: Maguire
Global exports and usage of thermal coal will reach alltime highs in 2024, in spite of the record rollout of renewable energy generation capacity throughout all major continents.
Exports of thermal coal through the very first 11 months of 2024 are up by 9 million metric lots from the same months in 2023, per Kpler ship-tracking information, and will climb further in December as power firms stock up for the Northern hemisphere winter.
Global coal-fired power generation is up by around 2% to new highs up until now in 2024, while coal-fired power emissions are also at a record, data from energy think tank Coal programs.
The ongoing expansion in coal imports and utilize underscores the trouble of removing nonrenewable fuel sources from energy systems, and may disappoint those wishing for a peak in coal burning.
Nevertheless, environment supporters can take heart from the slowing down pace of export growth, which at only 1% marks the smallest yearly growth since 2020, when COVID-19 lockdowns triggered a. unusual contraction in worldwide energy output.
Climate watchdogs might likewise be cheered by yearly declines in. coal imports by several of the biggest coal-consuming countries,. which if duplicated next year could set off falls in coal exports. from 2025.
Below are the key countries that have actually helped lift coal. exports to tape highs in 2024, and will be the primary drivers of. coal purchases and use in the years ahead.
GROWTH MARKETS
For Indonesia, the world's leading coal exporter, 2024 will be a. banner year and mark the very first time the country has shipped. over 500 million metric tons of thermal coal, according to. Kpler.
Australia will can be found in second with around 203 million lots,. followed by Russia (94 million loads), South Africa (55 million. tons), and Colombia (50 million tons).
Simply 10 countries account for 87% of worldwide coal imports so. far in 2024: China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam,. The Philippines, Malaysia, Turkey and Thailand.
And half of those purchasers will tape-record a yearly decline in. coal purchases in 2024.
Unfortunately for environment trackers, leading coal consumer China. - which accounts for 35% of all thermal coal imports - stays. in the import growth category.
China expanded imports by around 8% to a record 340 million. heaps from January 1st through the very first week of December,. according to Kpler.
China's electrical power generation from coal-fired plants. climbed 2% over the first 10 months of 2024 to a new record of. 4,838 terawatt hours, according to Ember, making 2024 the ninth. successive year of coal-fired growth in China. However, quickly increasing renewable energy production has. assisted cut coal's share of electricity generation to a record. low of 58.7% up until now in 2024, from practically 62% in 2023 and more. than 66% in 2019.
For now, China's overall coal consumption levels remain on a. increasing path even as coal's share of the generation mix declines.
But over time China's overall coal needs should likewise decline. in line with coal share, and lead to steadily diminishing coal. usage, production and imports by the nation.
Beyond China, other key development markets for coal imports and. consumption this year are across Southeast Asia, where numerous. economies have taken advantage of expanded manufacturing output and. exports, and rising local usage.
Vietnam boosted its coal imports by almost 7 million tons. ( or 24%) to a record in the very first 11 months of this year from. the very same period in 2023, and has actually raised coal-fired electrical power. production by 17%.
The Philippines and Malaysia have actually both also lifted coal. imports to tape highs this year, and have raised coal-fired. generation in line with total electricity output.
Thailand's coal imports were up nearly 5% this year,. matching a similar increase in coal-fired and overall electrical energy. generation.
CONTRACTIONS
Over the first 11 months of 2024, the second, third, 4th. and fifth largest coal importers all reduced imports compared to. the exact same months in 2023.
India, the second coal importer, cut imports by almost. 10 million lots from 2023 levels, due in big part to a climb. in domestic coal production.
South Korea cut imports by near 6 million loads, while. Japan cut coal imports by around 3.1 million loads and Taiwan cut. imports by 3.8 million lots.
Turkey, the ninth largest importer, has so far in 2024 cut. imports by around 1 million tons from the very same period in 2023.
Jointly, those nations imported around 23.5 million. tons less coal than throughout January-November in 2023.
What's more, 2024 will be the 2nd successive year when. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will all tape lower coal imports. from the year before, as they pursue decarbonisation targets.
India's fast-growing economy is most likely to set off sporadic. revivals in coal imports going forward, as it relies on coal for. around 70% of electrical power production.
Vietnam and the Philippines are also most likely to even more. increase coal imports in the coming years as their power demand. needs surpass domestic tidy energy supply growth.
However, over the longer run, all major coal importers have. energy system decarbonisation objectives that must see coal's share. of the total energy mix fall gradually lower from around the. middle of this century.
The opinions revealed here are those of the author, a market. analyst .
(source: Reuters)