Latest News

Global thermal coal exports and power use to strike brand-new highs in 2024: Maguire

Global exports and usage of thermal coal will reach alltime highs in 2024, in spite of the record rollout of renewable energy generation capacity throughout all major continents.

Exports of thermal coal through the very first 11 months of 2024 are up by 9 million metric lots from the same months in 2023, per Kpler ship-tracking information, and will climb further in December as power firms stock up for the Northern hemisphere winter.

Global coal-fired power generation is up by around 2% to new highs up until now in 2024, while coal-fired power emissions are also at a record, data from energy think tank Coal programs.

The ongoing expansion in coal imports and utilize underscores the trouble of removing nonrenewable fuel sources from energy systems, and may disappoint those wishing for a peak in coal burning.

Nevertheless, environment supporters can take heart from the slowing down pace of export growth, which at only 1% marks the smallest yearly growth since 2020, when COVID-19 lockdowns triggered a. unusual contraction in worldwide energy output.

Climate watchdogs might likewise be cheered by yearly declines in. coal imports by several of the biggest coal-consuming countries,. which if duplicated next year could set off falls in coal exports. from 2025.

Below are the key countries that have actually helped lift coal. exports to tape highs in 2024, and will be the primary drivers of. coal purchases and use in the years ahead.

GROWTH MARKETS

For Indonesia, the world's leading coal exporter, 2024 will be a. banner year and mark the very first time the country has shipped. over 500 million metric tons of thermal coal, according to. Kpler.

Australia will can be found in second with around 203 million lots,. followed by Russia (94 million loads), South Africa (55 million. tons), and Colombia (50 million tons).

Simply 10 countries account for 87% of worldwide coal imports so. far in 2024: China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam,. The Philippines, Malaysia, Turkey and Thailand.

And half of those purchasers will tape-record a yearly decline in. coal purchases in 2024.

Unfortunately for environment trackers, leading coal consumer China. - which accounts for 35% of all thermal coal imports - stays. in the import growth category.

China expanded imports by around 8% to a record 340 million. heaps from January 1st through the very first week of December,. according to Kpler.

China's electrical power generation from coal-fired plants. climbed 2% over the first 10 months of 2024 to a new record of. 4,838 terawatt hours, according to Ember, making 2024 the ninth. successive year of coal-fired growth in China. However, quickly increasing renewable energy production has. assisted cut coal's share of electricity generation to a record. low of 58.7% up until now in 2024, from practically 62% in 2023 and more. than 66% in 2019.

For now, China's overall coal consumption levels remain on a. increasing path even as coal's share of the generation mix declines.

But over time China's overall coal needs should likewise decline. in line with coal share, and lead to steadily diminishing coal. usage, production and imports by the nation.

Beyond China, other key development markets for coal imports and. consumption this year are across Southeast Asia, where numerous. economies have taken advantage of expanded manufacturing output and. exports, and rising local usage.

Vietnam boosted its coal imports by almost 7 million tons. ( or 24%) to a record in the very first 11 months of this year from. the very same period in 2023, and has actually raised coal-fired electrical power. production by 17%.

The Philippines and Malaysia have actually both also lifted coal. imports to tape highs this year, and have raised coal-fired. generation in line with total electricity output.

Thailand's coal imports were up nearly 5% this year,. matching a similar increase in coal-fired and overall electrical energy. generation.

CONTRACTIONS

Over the first 11 months of 2024, the second, third, 4th. and fifth largest coal importers all reduced imports compared to. the exact same months in 2023.

India, the second coal importer, cut imports by almost. 10 million lots from 2023 levels, due in big part to a climb. in domestic coal production.

South Korea cut imports by near 6 million loads, while. Japan cut coal imports by around 3.1 million loads and Taiwan cut. imports by 3.8 million lots.

Turkey, the ninth largest importer, has so far in 2024 cut. imports by around 1 million tons from the very same period in 2023.

Jointly, those nations imported around 23.5 million. tons less coal than throughout January-November in 2023.

What's more, 2024 will be the 2nd successive year when. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will all tape lower coal imports. from the year before, as they pursue decarbonisation targets.

India's fast-growing economy is most likely to set off sporadic. revivals in coal imports going forward, as it relies on coal for. around 70% of electrical power production.

Vietnam and the Philippines are also most likely to even more. increase coal imports in the coming years as their power demand. needs surpass domestic tidy energy supply growth.

However, over the longer run, all major coal importers have. energy system decarbonisation objectives that must see coal's share. of the total energy mix fall gradually lower from around the. middle of this century.

The opinions revealed here are those of the author, a market. analyst .

(source: Reuters)