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Maguire: Australia's clean and dirty energy trends will be tracked before the election.

The Australians will have a general elections in the next two month that is likely to trigger significant changes to national policies and priorities on energy, regardless of who wins.

Labor's policies are being criticized for their anti-nuclear and renewables-heavy nature. They have also been accused of high and volatile energy prices that have prevailed ever since they won power in 2022.

Labor and its main opponent, the Coalition centre-right party, are largely tied with polls. The Coalition has a radically different energy agenda which focuses on reversing the current nuclear ban and extending life to ageing coal power plants.

While investors and voters await further details on the policies planned by both parties, here are some key trends in the power and energy sectors that could be affected by whoever forms the next government.

CLEAN MOMENTUM

The Labor Party has long been a supporter of clean energy growth and has released plans to achieve net zero in Australia by 2050, through major investments into expanding renewables output.

According to Ember, an energy think tank, between 2021, the last year that the previous Liberal government held power, and 2024 the clean electricity production in Australia increased by 30% while fossil fuel generation decreased by 5%.

The main drivers for the growth in clean energy since 2021 were a 66% increase in utility-scale PV output and a 20% increase in wind production. Further investments in clean power generation and battery storage will be likely if Labor wins power.

The production of clean energy in Australia was also expanded during the previous administrations. Since 2015, total clean electricity has grown on average by 13% per year.

Under Labor, coal-fired electricity has also seen steady cuts. The coal share in Australia's generation mix will drop below 50% for first time by late 2024.

FOSSIL CUTTING SLOWS TOTAL GROWTH

Ember data show that while clean generation has been steadily increasing over the last decade, Australia's production of electricity from fossil fuels is down by about 2% per year since 2015.

These cuts in fossil fuel production have slowed the pace of growth of total electricity to just 1% per year on average since 2020.

The anemic growth rate of the total electricity supply likely contributed to the recent rise in electricity costs in Australia, and offset some of the positive impact of increased clean power production.

Electricity prices will likely remain high and volatile in the near future due to the sustained increase in annual electricity consumption. This is regardless of the outcome of the next election.

If the Coalition wins, it could lead to support for fossil-fuel-fired plants that would increase production slightly. However, there are limited options for a long-term production increase due to the ageing and already stressed coal power fleet.

A Coalition victory could trigger more serious discussions about developing a nuclear fleet. However, any nuclear electricity supply would not likely begin until after 2030.

ENDURING EXPORT AFFECT

The upcoming election could alter the domestic power generation trend depending on which party is elected, but Australia's position on the global stage of fossil fuel exports will remain the same.

Australia has vast reserves of coal and gas, which far exceeds the amount it uses for electricity generation. This has led to Australia being a top-five exporter of these commodities.

Data from the Energy Institute show that Australia will export nearly six times as much coal in 2023 than it consumes, and almost three times as much natural gas (in the form of liquid natural gas) by then.

According to Kpler, the export volumes of Australia will account for 27% of global LNG and coal exports by 2024.

The large export tonnages of fuels from Australia have been a source for criticism for a long time, because when the fuels are burned in other countries for electricity they produce huge plumes of pollution.

According to the Global Carbon Budget, Australia's fossil fuel exports emit so much carbon dioxide per capita that it is the third-largest emitter of the gas after Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

The Australian government has so far brushed off allegations that its fossil fuel exports undermine efforts to slow down climate change.

According to the latest government report on resource exports, combined exports of all coal types plus LNG will rise to five-year heights in 2025.

The dichotomy of Australia's clean power system at home and its massive fossil fuel exports could still lead to new criticism that it is causing global environmental damage in the short term.

These accusations may influence the new leadership into reducing fossil fuel sales and limiting the extraction of fossil fuels in the interests of the environment.

The election winners, regardless of their party, are more likely to follow the example of the new United States Government and ignore global climate pacts and support the local economy in favor of the voters and voters within it.

These are the opinions of the author who is a market analyst at.

(source: Reuters)