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Maguire: Europe's gas price could be dragged down by spring shoulder

The European benchmark gas price has been falling since early February after reaching a two-year peak. This trend may continue as we approach the historically weakest period of gas-fired electricity demand.

Gas prices were strong in the early part of this year, mainly due to winter heating demand. This was coupled with a lower-than-normal production of wind power. As a result, utilities had to balance their system needs by increasing gas-fired generation.

LSEG data show that Europe's gas-fired electric production has risen to its highest level since 2021 in the first two months in 2025. It is also above the year-earlier levels on key markets.

The gas used for power generation usually drops sharply after the end of March as the heating demand falls and the combined power supply from solar and wind farm reaches its annual peak in the spring shoulder season.

Gas prices in Europe could continue to fall if this pattern repeats itself again in 2025. This is despite the fact that they have already dropped by over a quarter since their peak of 2025.

DOWNTURN

Europe's gas-fired electricity generation typically drops during the first quarter of the year, as the heating demand decreases.

The April-June quarter is the lowest quarter of the year from 2015 to 2024 for the production of gas-fired electric power. It has dropped by 25% on average compared to the January-March quarter.

The second quarter 2024 gas generation total was 31 percent less than the previous quarter. A similar decline in gas usage could occur again in 2025, if mild weather conditions slow down heating demand at the end of the month.

The latest weather predictions from LSEG show that temperatures above normal are expected in most of continental Europe starting March 20. This could have an impact on heating demand as early as this week.

INDUSTRIAL WORRIES

Chemical plants and cement manufacturers are among the largest gas consumers in Europe outside of the power sector.

The lingering economic downturn has affected much of Europe's industrial production. In Germany, the output of steel, chemicals, fertilizers and plastics was near the multi-year low.

Italy's industrial activity increased in January compared to the previous month, but was still below the total for the same period last year due to the lingering weakness of its manufacturing sector.

PRICE PROBLEMS

Power prices in Europe are a major factor behind the industrial downturns that Europe is experiencing. They have risen sharply since 2025, and they're now significantly above their levels from last year.

According to LSEG, the average wholesale power price in Germany – Europe's biggest industrial product manufacturer – was 127 euros per Megawatt Hour (MWh) for the first three quarters of 2025.

This average is 49 percent higher than the 2024 average, which means major energy consumers will continue to be faced with severe costs challenges in 2019.

The Netherlands, Italy France and Poland also have power prices that are significantly higher than the previous year.

Gas prices have risen in many regions, and gas is responsible for a quarter or more of Europe's power supply.

Gas prices could start to fall as electricity use decreases, and regional power costs may follow suit. This would give power consumers some breathing space.

Gas storage operators will be in competition with industrial gas users, as they are responsible for replenishing regional stocks following the sharp drawdown of Europe's gas inventory so far this year.

Gas storage companies typically start building up their stockpiles from late spring onwards, spreading out their purchases over the months with the lowest demand. This allows them to replenish stocks by winter.

Gas buyers will need to buy at least 100 cargoes more this year than they did in previous years in order to compensate for the sharp drop in inventory in 2025. This could cause them not purchase replenishment earlier in the year.

Currently, European nations are discussing making the region’s gas storage goals flexible after disputes over binding target that threatened to drive up the costs of gas stockspiles in the region.

Members are considering extending the time period from October 1 until December.

This would allow tank operators to better time their purchases and reduce orders in the storage sector.

If the slower pace of storage orders coincides with a reduced demand for gas from the power sector then regional gas prices may fall significantly before the restocking order likely stabilizes the market during the summer. These are the opinions of a market analyst at.

(source: Reuters)