Latest News

Maguire: Tracking Texas power system as heat waves loom in Texas

A heat wave that is expected to bring temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit this week is expected to cause a spike in demand for electricity.

Electric Reliability Council of Texas reported that the growing demand for electricity from industry and data centres, along with widespread air conditioning use, is expected to push peak electricity usage to an all-time high of 84,000 megawatts this week.

According to industry analysts this demand load is 9% higher than the previous peak demand for May. This will put one of the largest power systems in the country under extreme strain over the next few days.

Here are some key tools power analysts can utilize to monitor how the ERCOT is performing.

REAL-TIME MONITORING

Power trading tools, such as LSEG Workspace, allow analysts to monitor the forecasts of temperatures, peak loads and power supply from major generation sources.

LSEG's latest weather models predict that temperatures in the ERCOT region will average 82 degrees Fahrenheit through May 16. This is approximately 7 degrees or 9% higher than the long-term mean.

Power demand models predict an increase in the system load between May 12 and 16.

The weather-based models of power demand deployed by LSEG predict that the power demand from May 12 to May 16 will be approximately 30% higher than the current power load.

Analysts can track the evolution of the power generation mix at ERCOT in the next few days as a response to the increase in electricity demand.

In the near future, solar farms and natural gas plants will be the largest sources of power within the ERCOT network. Wind farms, coal and nuclear reactors will also play a key role in the supply.

This week, analysts can track the power prices to see how the strain on the ERCOT is affecting consumers.

LSEG Workspace, along with other tools for the power system, provides real-time power prices and day-ahead estimates across the key regions of the ERCOT network. This allows traders to identify potential localized hotspots within the broader system.

WIDER LENS

Analysts can also use tools to track the evolution of ERCOT's power system over time. This allows them to compare how well-equipped system managers were in previous grid strain periods.

Cleanview, an energy data portal, allows analysts and power supply analysts to track the capacity increase of battery storage systems.

Cleanview's website shows that since 2023, Texas added nearly 4,400 megawatts of battery storage and around 9,000 MW of solar generation.

These capacity additions were the most among all the states in that time period, and show that the ERCOT managers have been aggressive about adding storage and generation capacity to the network.

Analysts can track ERCOT's power mix over time by tracking the share of generation. This can provide insight into how ERCOT managers adjust system resources to meet demands.

Gridstatus.io, an online monitoring tool for electricity, allows analysts to view how battery storage plays a growing role in providing extra power during peak demand periods.

Batteries supplied more than 9% of the total ERCOT electricity between 8 pm and 9 pm on May 11. This was higher than the amount supplied by wind farms or nuclear reactors during the same time period.

Batteries continue to be a vital component of the system balance this week. This is especially true when solar power drops at night, just as families across the state return from school and work and turn on their cooling systems.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

(source: Reuters)