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Maguire: Key US Natural Gas Trends to Track as LNG Exports Hit New Highs

The U.S. has seen its exports of LNG reach new heights this year. They are up over 20% compared to the same period in 2024, cementing the U.S. as the largest supplier of super-chilled fuel.

The demand for U.S. Natural Gas has also reached record highs in the commercial and industrial sector, helping to boost total U.S. Gas consumption by the biggest gas consumers by 5% compared to the previous year to new highs.

All major gas consumers are also seeing a significant increase in prices since 2024. However, they remain below the previous records set around 2022-2023.

Here is a summary of key trends and data for the U.S. Natural Gas Market so far in this year, and what to expect going forward.

BONANZA FOR LNG EXPORT

According to Kpler, the commodities intelligence firm, U.S. LNG exported in the first eight months of 2025 increased by 22%, or 12.4 million tonnes, from the same period in 2024, to reach a record high of 69 million tones.

Europe was the second largest market for U.S. LNG exports, followed by Asia. The Netherlands, France, and Spain were the top three markets, accounting for 28% of all U.S. LNG exports so far in this year.

Since 2022, the Russian invasion of Ukraine led to sanctions against Moscow and disrupted commodity flows into Europe.

The decline in wind and hydro electricity generation in Europe this year has also contributed to the increase in gas consumption. Several European nations have increased imports of U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas in an effort to reduce their trade deficits with America once President Donald Trump returns to office.

The total imports of U.S. LNG by Europe from January to August 2024 are up 61%.

Gas rationing has been implemented in Asia, where the price of U.S. LNG has dropped by 35% in comparison to last year.

Kpler data show that the U.S. has seen its share of global LNG exports rise to a record 24,5% this year. In 2024 it was only 21%.

RISE IN PRICES

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average price of U.S. LNG exported in the first five months 2025 was $8.34 per 1,000 cubic feet.

This price is 38% higher than the average LNG price in the same period in 2024.

The price of domestic gas is expected to rise dramatically in 2025 for most major consumers.

Prices for electric power generators, the biggest gas consumers in the U.S. (representing around 31% of the total gas consumption), increased by 52% between January and May 2024 compared to the same period in the previous year.

Residential users (19% gas use), and commercial users (12%) saw their prices rise by 6% and 8 % respectively.

Gas prices in the United States are 27% higher than they were in 2007. The average price per 1,000 cubic feet was $8.81.

Usage Trends

Gas prices are driving a shift in the way Americans use gas. While gas consumption has reached a record high for all major segments of gas usage, it is still a relatively low level.

During January to May, the key electric power segment achieved its first reduction in gas consumption year-over-year since 2021.

EIA data show that the 4,704 billion cubic foot of gas consumed by electric power companies was 4% lower than in 2024. This was due to higher production at cheaper coal plants, as well as higher supplies of renewable energy.

The gas consumption of all other major gas users increased this year compared to the previous year, but in a wide range of degrees.

Commercial users increased consumption by 11%, while industrial users increased consumption by 1.5%.

Residential gas users - who use gas primarily for heating – increased their use by 11.4% compared to the previous year, but the trend in residential use of gas remains downwards as more homes improve energy efficiency and install heat pump that run on electric.

A FORWARD GUIDANCE

The U.S. market will continue to be a major driver of the gas price and sentiment in the U.S.

EIA data show that between 2019 and 2024, the gas demand for LNG exported rose by 140%.

This growth rate is compared with a 20% increase in the demand for gas from the industry sector, and a 2% increase in gas consumption by residences.

EIA data show that the total gas demand of LNG exporters in 2021 was greater than that consumed by commercial users and nearly equaled that consumed by residential customers in 2024.

The LNG export sector is expected to be the third largest gas consumer in the United States after electric power and industries this year.

Even if the demand for gas in offices and homes continues its decline, the strength of U.S. exports could set the tone for U.S. gas prices.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)