Latest News

Maguire: Using the Dirty Dozen as a tool to monitor global energy emission potential

Climate watchers must look beyond China in order to get a complete picture of global trends related to energy extraction and production.

China is the largest emitter of energy-related gases in the world.

While China has led the way in energy emission trends this century, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam will also play a major role in determining the future trends of pollution.

This means that any attempt to estimate the trajectory of potential global energy emissions should include discharge patterns from a wider group of nations than China.

THE DIRTY DOZEN

China, as the largest consumer of energy and producer of power in the world, must play a key role in efforts to measure and predict global emission trends.

But, given the steadily increasing pollution caused by energy in these countries, they deserve to be included in this effort.

In fact, 11 other countries stand out as major current and future drivers of global energy emission trends due to their record of increasing pollution linked to energy production and usage.

According to the Energy Institute, between 2019 and 2024 12 countries increased their annual emissions of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) by at least five million metric tonnes per year.

These nations are listed in descending order by annual emission growth between 2019 and 2024: China, India Indonesia, Russia Iran, Vietnam United Arab Emirates Malaysia Turkey Uzbekistan Philippines Bangladesh.

This Dirty Dozen collectively increased their total energy emission to record levels in nine of the last 10 years. The exception was in 2020, when COVID-19 locksdowns severely stifled the global energy production and use.

In 2024 the Dirty Dozen nations released a total of 19,06 billion tons CO2 through energy extraction and production. This compares with a global discharge of 16,4 billion tons CO2.

The Dirty Dozen discharge total represented a record 54% all energy-related emission in 2024. This figure is expected to increase in the coming years due to the heavy reliance of several member countries on high-polluting fossil fuels.

KEY COUNTRIES

The Dirty Dozen countries increased their energy-related emissions by an average of 3 percent per year between 2019 and 2024.

Energy emissions outside of the Dirty Dozen decreased by 1.4% on average per year.

The divergence in emissions between the Dirty Dozen group and the rest highlights their impact on global energy pollution trends and why climate trackers should be monitoring them.

China has consistently emitted CO2 from its energy sector in the window between 2019 and 2024, with an average of around 10,5 billion tons per year.

China has the highest average annual increase in CO2 emissions among all countries.

The rate of increase in China's discharge has been among the lowest among the Dirty Dozen nations since 2019. This indicates that other countries have been increasing their pollution trends at the same time as China is reducing it.

India is ranked second in the Dirty Dozen for annual energy emissions. These averaged 2.6 million tons per year between 2019-2024.

Russia ranked third, with energy emissions of around 1.6 billion tonnes per year. Iran was next with 680 million tons.

FAST GROWTH

Indonesia is the leader in terms of percentage annual growth since 2019 with an average of 7%.

Vietnam (6% per year) and Bangladesh (5%) have both experienced strong growth over the last five years, while India (4%), Uzbekistan (4%), United Arab Emirates (4%), and the Philippines (4%) all had annual growth rates around 3%.

China's annual emission growth has been 2.6% per year since 2019. This means that the other members of the Dirty Dozen could drive the collective discharge higher, even if China is able to reduce pollution in the next few years.

India, Indonesia and Vietnam, as well as the Philippines, have a high pollution potential due to their current power system's dependence on coal.

Russia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iran, and Uzbekistan all rely on natural gas to power their systems. They are unlikely to reduce their fossil fuel dependency for energy production any time soon.

All of this means that the global emissions from energy production and extraction will continue to rise in the years ahead, even if China is able to change course and begin a steady reduction path for emissions later in the decade.

Climate trackers that focus too narrowly on China to represent global emissions trajectory risk missing this important trend. They should also keep in mind the Dirty Dozen.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.

(source: Reuters)