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Maguire: US LNG export dominance will be tested as sellers look past Europe to Europe.

The U.S. has risen to the top in the global LNG exporter rankings thanks to a potent combination of American innovation and full-throated support from the political establishment. This narrative suggests that "freedom gas' shipments will continue to climb to all markets over the next few years.

The U.S. is expected to export a third of its liquefied gas in 2025, compared with the second largest exporter. However, due to the high proportion of LNG sales going to Europe, American LNG suppliers are at risk of experiencing rapid volume drops as European consumers reduce gas consumption.

Further, the U.S. shares of LNG exports to the region with the highest imports, Asia, are far lower than those from rivals Qatar and Australia. These countries enjoy much more affordable shipping times for key markets like Japan, China, and India.

Exports will have to increase sharply on key markets outside Europe, where countries like Australia, Malaysia, and Russia already dominate.

The increased competition will test the U.S.'s ability to remain as the world's top LNG supplier. It will result in higher transit costs and lower profit margins for U.S. sellers as they compete to get deals.

EURO CENTRIC

The European countries accounted for more than two-thirds (67%) of U.S. LNG exported this year. This is the largest concentration of U.S. LNG flows to one continent since 2022 when Europe's LNG demand spiked after Russia's invasion in Ukraine.

Kpler data show that while Europe's total LNG needs in 2025 have increased by only 2%, despite the fact that Europe's LNG volumes have increased by 25% since last year. This is because Europe's power sector has shifted away from fossil fuels.

As Europe's utilities continue to accelerate the deployment of renewables and batteries, regional gas consumption is expected to decrease from 2030s onwards. This will result in a shrinking LNG market.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its latest outlook, forecasts that the total European Union's gas demand will decline by just under 10% by 2035, due to a greater use of heat pumps and electric, as well as higher energy efficiency, and more output from renewables.

FAR-FLUNG HEEADWINDS

In order to offset the shrinking volume into Europe, U.S. LNG suppliers will need to look further afield and compete with other major LNG sellers in Asia to gain market share. Asia is currently the largest LNG-importing region.

To sustainably increase volumes in cost-sensitive markets like China and India, U.S. Exporters may have to undercut their rivals' prices while incurring higher delivery costs.

In 2025, U.S. LNG exports are only 8% of total LNG imports. Other exporters, such as Australia and Qatar, hold much higher Asian market share.

For U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas to grow its share, it will have to be more affordable than other suppliers.

The challenge will be to lower the sale price, as shipping LNG from Europe to Asia is more than twice the cost of shipping LNG from Europe to Asia.

According to LSEG, the journey time of an LNG vessel between Sabine Pass (U.S.) and Rotterdam (Netherlands) is approximately 15 days.

The journey from Sabine Pass in Louisiana to Dahej in India takes over 30 days. This is a double in travel time, as well as a greater amount of LNG leaking during the trip, which will reduce cargo revenue.

The combination of lower sales prices and higher transit costs can not only erode profits, but also affect exporter creditworthiness. Longer journeys may require short-term credit because they will tie up cash flow for longer.

The overall risk of LNG exporters will increase if they shift from servicing only cash-rich European customers to soliciting the demand of firms with weaker credit ratings in emerging markets. This may also result in a rise in the cost for credit lines.

TRADE TENSIONS

The aggressive moves of U.S. LNG producers to increase market share in Asia may also cause trade tensions with Qatar. Qatar is heavily dependent on gas exports to earn its national income and plans to dramatically boost its LNG export volume.

Qatar has pledged to invest heavily in the U.S. in the next decade, including in facilities which export LNG from the U.S. Gulf Coast. It could therefore renege on these commitments if U.S. LNG expansions are considered too disruptive.

Canada, Russia Australia, Mozambique, and Mexico also have plans to increase LNG export volumes over the next few years. They will therefore be competing for the same markets as U.S. Exporters.

In general, increased supplies from other suppliers and higher delivery costs for new markets could slow U.S. LNG growth in the future, forcing LNG exporters over time to accept a smaller share of global LNG exports.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

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(source: Reuters)