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Vladimirov: ROI-Venezuela is the first step in a geoeconomic reset of LatAm
The removal of Nicolas Maduro from Venezuela could be the start of a larger U.S. effort to realign Latin America in a geoeconomical sense, thus limiting Russia's and China's ability to use the Western Hemisphere as a pressure-point on global commodity markets. Central America may be the next domino in the fall. This region has a lot of shipping lanes, and is close to checkpoints. It's a great place for both licit and illegal commerce. The Panama Canal handles approximately 40% of U.S. containers and 5% of world trade. Other transit routes include the Caribbean Sea and ports on the west coast in Mexico, Guatemala and Costa Rica, used to ship goods to Asia. Russia has already benefited from this geography by a growing "shadow Fleet" of aging vessels that are operated outside the Western Insurance System. These vessels help move crude and refined products that are subject to Western sanctions through the Caribbean corridor, the Panama Canal, and the Gulf of Mexico. This undermines U.S., European, and other efforts to stop Moscow's financing of the war in Ukraine. The region is an important node in the Kremlin’s global financial network. Some of the largest Russian firms use offshore financial hubs to conduct international business. According to the Center for the Study of Democracies, offshore shell companies in the Caribbean control assets worth close to $70 billion. China is still the dominant economic force in Latin America. China's Belt and Road investment, technology transfer and financing dwarf Russia and, increasingly, the U.S. 's outlays. China has increased its engagement in the region through tariff reductions and industry agreements, positioning it as a major provider of technology and industrial inputs. It also provides consumer goods, transportation equipment and consumer products. Moscow and Beijing used political ties, long-term contracts and strategic investments to gain a foothold in the Americas. According to Inter-American Dialogue, Chinese development loans to Latin America will reach more than $120 Billion by the end 2023. Even though U.S. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which is estimated to be worth $1.4 trillion by the year 2023 in Latin America, dwarfs the combined $610 billion of Russian and Chinese capital in the area, The strategic bilateral agreements that Latin American countries signed with Moscow or Beijing have severely limited the opportunities for U.S. companies and European firms to enter markets which will determine the future trajectory of the Western Hemisphere. The "Donroe Doctrine", the Trump administration's plan to?cement its dominance in this region, is a move that aims to change this. Venezuela, with its largest oil reserves in the world and additional support from Moscow, has supported regimes from Cuba to Nicaragua for decades. Venezuela and Russia, for example, cover over 60% of Cuba's petroleum consumption at very low costs. Energy supply has become a geopolitical tool because of this dependence. Cuba already suffers from chronic energy shortages. If the U.S. were to block Venezuelan and Russian supply, it could lead to economic chaos. The immediate impact on commodities markets would be indirect. A tighter scrutiny of Caribbean shipping and insurance, as well as reflagging (or changing the country of registration of a vessel) is likely to increase costs for traders. It may also restrict the flow of sanctioned oil. In this scenario it is likely that the U.S. Gulf Coast will be more reliant on its refineries in order to replace lost supplies from Russia and Venezuela. If the U.S. Southern Command suppresses also the shadow fleet along South America's Atlantic coast, it will further push Russia back, who recently became Brazil's largest supplier of petroleum products. This could allow U.S. refiners a chance to reclaim the traditional role of swing supplier in the region. The reintegration into the global oil markets under U.S. management would also directly affect the market share of oil exporters like Mexico, Ecuador, and Colombia. The collapse of the Venezuelan oil industry has benefited all three countries, increasing their regional sales over the last decade. BROADER GEOECONOMIC REALIGNMENT The U.S.'s move to reclaim the economic sphere of its influence in the Western Hemisphere could open up the door for more American investment, especially in strategic areas such as nuclear power, port and road infrastructure and the development of critical raw materials in the region. These sectors are currently dominated, amongst others, by Chinese and Russian firms in Bolivia, Brazil Argentina, Venezuela Peru and Chile. The U.S. strategy is not without risks. U.S. coercive action could disrupt regional trade and investments, strain relationships with Latin American governments, and in some cases accelerate the shift towards China. The Trump administration's intervention in Venezuela could help reverse the growing geoeconomic alignment of the region with Russia and China. But only if the coercion matched by credible economic incentives to encourage countries to change course. This month's events will have far-reaching implications that go beyond the oil markets. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X.
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Wall Street Journal, January 15, 2019
These are the most popular stories from the Wall Street Journal. These stories have not been?verified and we cannot vouch for their accuracy. Dennis Cinelli, a technology executive who is currently a board member at Paramount Skydance, has been named as the company's next chief financial officer. After a visit to the White House, top officials from Denmark and Greenland stated that they had not convinced U.S. president Donald Trump to give up his plans to annex Greenland. Federal investigators are examining how Boeing has responded to previous failures on McDonnell Douglas aircraft. Alibaba Group is rolling out an update to its Qwen App, which integrates?the chatbot within its ecosystem. It will also allow it to carry out tasks for users. Affiliates of Kaiser Permanente have agreed to pay $556 million in settlement to claims that they illegally pressed doctors to add codes for diagnoses to patient records they had never considered, to increase Medicare payments.
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Police say that another crane collapsed in Thailand, killing two people.
Police said that a crane in Thailand collapsed on Thursday crushing two vehicles and killing 2 people. This happened a day after a 'crane accident' in the northeast killed 32 passengers. According to Police Colonel Sitthiporn Kasi of the local district police station, the latest incident occurred in Samut Sakhon Province, near the capital Bangkok. A crane used?in construction of an elevated road fell onto the road below. Five other people were also injured, according to a second police officer from the station. The accident was the latest of many?fatal accidents in Thailand caused by construction projects. On Wednesday, a train derailed in the northeastern province of Nakhon Ratchasima after a crane collapsed in an elevated high-speed rail project. Authorities said that 66 passengers on the train, in addition to the 32 dead, were injured. Investigations are ongoing. (Reporting and writing by Panarat Thepgumpanat, Martin Petty, editing by David Stanway.)
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Boeing reaches tentative agreements in related 737 MAX accident lawsuits
Boeing has tentatively settled with a Canadian who lost six family members in the crash of an Ethiopian Air 737 MAX shortly after takeoff on January 29, 2019. The cases had already been consolidated?into?a single trial at the U.S. District Court of Chicago. Terms of settlements reached late on Tuesday were not disclosed. Three of Manant Vaidya’s six family members died in the accident – his parents, Pannagesh Vaidya and Hansini Vaidya; and his sister, Kosha Vaidya. The crash also claimed the lives of Preritkumar, Kosha Dixit's husband and their children Ashka and Anushka. Boeing settled the lawsuits relating to their deaths in 2025. Clifford Law Firm which represented Manant Vaidya said that all six victims lived in Canada. Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 was destroyed five months after another 737 MAX crashed into Java Sea, Lion?Air Flight 610. Both crashes were caused by an automated flight control system. A total of 346 people died in both crashes. Boeing has previously stated that the U.S. aircraft manufacturer settled more than 90 percent of the civil lawsuits relating to the two crashes, and paid out billions in compensation via lawsuits, deferred prosecution agreements, and other payments. Boeing's most popular jet was grounded for 20 months as a result of two accidents. The cost to the company?s $20 billion. In a statement released on Wednesday, a 'Boeing spokesperson expressed their deepest regrets to those who lost loved ones in Lion Air Flight 610 or Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302. "We have made a commitment upfront to compensate fully and fairly the families of those who lost their lives and accepted legal responsibility for the accidents. We respect the right of families to sue in court for damages, even though we have settled most claims. We will continue our efforts to resolve the claims made by the families of those affected by these accidents. (Reporting from Seattle by Dan Catchpole; Editing by Stephen Coates).
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Google claims that the US transmission system is the biggest challenge to connecting data centers
Google's energy executive said that the most difficult part of powering Google data centers is connecting to the U.S. electric transmission system. In some areas, the wait time to connect can be more than 10 years. As the world's biggest technology companies race to expand energy-intensive data centres, which are increasingly used to train artificial intelligence and to?roll it out, they are up against the slow-moving power grid of China. Marsden?Hanna (Global Head of Sustainability and Climate Policy, Google) said that transmission barriers were the biggest challenge on the grid at an event hosted by the American Enterprise Institute. Hanna stated that "we had one utility tell us to study the timeline of interconnection for 12 years, which is kind?of crazy, but this is what we are seeing." Hanna stated that in order to reduce the "wait times", the country must address delays with new transmission and utilities should deploy technology to increase the power flow from the existing system. Google is examining co-location arrangements that could help it avoid some of the long wait times. The company would do this by placing some data centers next to power plants. Colocated arrangements allow for the transmission system to be bypassed and the lengthy wait times that come with it. Hanna stated that "that's the strategy we're pursuing when it comes to colocation, and our hope is for these resources to be eventually 'grid-connected'." Hanna stated that Google prefers to be connected to the grid. The topic of colocation is complex and controversial. It has sparked debate about who should pay for the costs and what happens when a power plant diverts its power to a single customer. Federal and regional regulators are addressing the issue of colocation. They want to establish guidelines for the cost and reliability issues that arise when building data centers near existing power plants.
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CANADA-CRUDE-Discount on Western Canada Select narrows
On Wednesday, the discount between West Texas Intermediate crude oil and North American benchmark West Texas Select futures was reduced. WCS for February deliveries in Hardisty, Alberta, settled at $14.30 per barrel less than the U.S. benchmark WTI according to brokerage CalRock. This compares with $14.40 on Tuesday. The discount on Canadian heavy crude remains $1 more than last month. The price of Canadian heavy crude has dropped?as a result of increased market volatility due to U.S. president Donald Trump's stated goal to increase Venezuelan production. The market is watching for the possibility of an increase in Venezuelan heavy oil barrels competing with Canadian heavy oils in the U.S. Gulf Coast in the long term. Some analysts have suggested that the market may have overreacted because it will be years before Venezuela is able to increase its oil production beyond current levels. The global oil price settled higher on Wednesday. However, it then lost most of its gains after U.S. president Donald Trump eased concerns about disruptions of?Iranian supply when he announced late in the afternoon the killings of Iranians who were fighting civil unrest had slowed. (Reporting and editing by Amanda Stephenson, Calgary)
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Boeing flagged a crack in a part of the UPS fatal crash in 2011.
The National Transportation Safety Board announced on Wednesday that a cracked part on a UPS MD-11 cargo jet, which crashed in Kentucky in November, was?flagged? in a Boeing Service Letter more than a ten-year-old. The National Transportation Safety Board said that 15 people, including 3 plane crew members, were killed in the fiery crash of the MD-11 cargo aircraft at Louisville Airport. The NTSB reported that its investigation found fatigue cracks on the left pylon support structure, also known as the bearing race. Boeing's letter from 2011 stated that there were four failures in the bearing race on three aircraft, which required visual inspections. However, it was not considered a safety of flight issue by the NTSB. Boeing's letter stated that the part would be inspected on average every five years. The FAA declined comment. Boeing stated that it continues to support NTSB's investigation but declined to comment on the letter. ? The Boeing service bulletin that was cited in this update, according to air safety expert Anthony Brickhouse, flagged "a fatigue situation". Brickhouse said that if fatigue is not handled properly it could become a safety of flight issue. In its update, the NTSB also stated that the first engine of the UPS plane had caught fire and there were anomalies in the thrust of the second. Normaly, a plane with three engines and two working engines can climb. Experts say that investigators will look at the possibility of ingestion of debris. Reporting by David Shepardson, Washington and Allison Lampert, Montreal
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Lufthansa changes Middle East operations, and Germany warns against flights over Iran
Flightradar24 reported on Wednesday that Germany had issued a directive warning its airlines against entering Iranian airspace. This came shortly after Lufthansa revised?its flight operation across the Middle East due to escalating tensions in the area. Lufthansa announced on Wednesday it will bypass Iranian and Iraqi Airspace until further notice. It will only operate daytime flights from Tel Aviv and Amman between Wednesday and Monday next week. In a statement, it said that some flights may also be cancelled as a consequence of these actions. Protests against the government in Iran are taking place across the country started The unrest has escalated over the last month. Several protesters have been reported as 'killed' while authorities blacked out the internet to curb the growing unrest. Donald Trump, the president of the United States, has threatened to intervene on behalf of Iranian protesters. Iran's protests come after a series of geopolitical tensions that have heightened tensions throughout the Middle East. Investors have been impacted by the situation. Investors have become more volatile. piled into Gold and the Dollar are safe havens. In a statement, the German airline group stated that passengers affected would be notified and automatically rebooked. It also added that crews who were flying into Israel or Amman will fly directly back without staying overnight on site. Separately Italian carrier ITA Airways, of which Lufthansa Group has now become a major shareholder, announced that it too would suspend night flights from Tel Aviv 'until next Tuesday. Flydubai and Turkish Airlines are two of the many airline operators that have a presence in the Middle East. You can cancel your order if you wish. Multiple flights to Iran have been made in the last week. Reporting by Kanjyik and Keith Weird; Editing by Chris Reese, David Gregorio and Nathan Gomes
Maguire: Key trends in US energy and power at home and abroad
The U.S. Energy System has begun 2026 with more momentum and buzz than it's had in decades, despite all the policy whiplash.
Electricity production in the United States is increasing faster than most other western countries. This allows utilities to provide more power?to data centres that are growing rapidly and using a lot of energy, and AI applications which are the key drivers for the U.S. economic.
The U.S. will continue to be the world's largest and'most influential exporter for crude oil and natural gases, which are the backbone of the vast majority of the global energy system and provide massive revenues to the U.S. Treasury.
The strong state of the U.S. Energy Sector is a testament to President Donald Trump’s "energy dominance", which will gain even more momentum in 2018 as new energy policies are implemented.
Here are some key metrics for electricity production, fossil fuel exports and imports that will help you track the U.S. Energy Sector through 2026.
ELECTRIC GROWTH
Data from Ember shows that the total electricity generated by U.S. utilities in 2025 increased by 3% from the previous year. This is the second consecutive year where wholesale electricity output has shown a rise of 3% or more.
This electricity growth rate is compared to an average annual growth of 0.3% over the last five years. It shows that utilities have increased their generation efforts.
The increase in utility production was due to a 5% increase in the output of electricity from clean energy sources and a 1 % rise in the output from fossil fuel plants.
In Europe, the rate of growth in utility supply in total was only?0.2% last year. This is largely due to high energy prices.
The U.S. is on par with the global average for 2025 but falls short of the 5% increase in the utility electricity production posted by?China.
The U.S. utility industry is expected to increase electricity production in 2026. This will be due to the addition of solar and battery networks, as well as a planned restart of Palisades Nuclear Plant in Michigan.
The federal government's decision to stop funding renewable energy projects could slow down the rate of growth in solar and wind capacity and, over time, affect the growth in electricity output.
OIL, GAS & COAL
According to the Energy Institute, while clean power sources have gained a record-breaking share of U.S. electric mix in 2025. fossil fuels still remain the main pillar of U.S. system of energy and are responsible for 83% of total U.S. supply of energy.
The fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy mix with their record production in 2025, both of crude oil and of natural gas.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, crude oil production in the United States will average 13.6 million barrels a day by 2025. Dry natural gas production will average 107.4 bcf/day.
In 2025, coal output increased by 5% compared to the previous year. However, the total U.S. production of coal remains below levels from a decade earlier due to the reduced use of domestic power generation.
Natural gas is the main power fuel for the U.S. It accounts for about 40% of the electricity produced and is a major source of power and heat for the industry.
In 2026, rising natural gas prices will be a result of increasing power consumption and record demand from LNG exporters. This is expected to increase the extraction rate from gas wells.
FOSSIL EXPORTS
According to Kpler, the commodities intelligence firm, LNG dominated the U.S. export of energy in 2025 with a record-breaking 252 million cubic metres shipped.
The total LNG exports for 2025 increased by?25% compared to the previous year. This growth is expected to continue in 2026, as more liquefaction capacity will be available along the Texas coast and the Louisiana coast.
The EIA estimates that the total U.S. exports of LNG could increase by 9% to 1.3 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, and then will rise to 1.7 billion cubic feet per days in 2027.
It is not clear what will happen to U.S. crude exports by 2026.
Exporters should have plenty of supplies, as the domestic crude demand is relatively flat and production is robust. Kpler says it is still unclear whether exporters can ship out more than the 1.38 million barrels that they shipped out in 2025. This is because they will need to deal with increased supplies from Venezuela after the U.S. ousted Venezuelan President Maduro this month.
The U.S. coal exports are also being pressured by the declining demand for the fuel globally and increased competition from Indonesian, Australia, Colombian, Russia, and South Africa who all have shorter trade routes with major importers.
Even if coal exports are flat in the long run, the output and consumption of coal in the power sector is likely to grow in 2026.
The U.S. Energy Sector is expected to have a strong year in 2020, with continued growth in LNG, record crude oil exports and near-record production.
These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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(source: Reuters)