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Why is it so simple for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz?

Iran, following through on a long-standing threat, has closed the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation to U.S. and Israeli strikes. This waterway is vital, as it carries a fifth of all global oil supplies.

The United States has said that it could consider escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which would be very difficult to secure, as the Houthis from Yemen proved last year when they disrupted Red Sea shipping.

According to United Nations data, about a fifth of global oil and LNG normally passes through the Strait. Traffic has decreased by 97% since February 28 when the U.S./Israeli war on Iran began.

Why has Iran cut off the Strait now?

The threat of cutting off the Strait was made before, when a commander from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in 2011 that it would be "easier to drink a glass water".

The Guards warned that they would close the border in the past, especially during tensions about sanctions and Iran's nuke programme in 2016-2018, and also during Israeli and U.S. attacks in June of last year.

Analysts have viewed the closing of the Strait of Hormuz as a last resort due to the strategic changes that it could cause among Iran's adversaries and the possibility of retaliation by its own energy sector.

This equation has been changed by the attack on Iran that began on 28 February with the death of its supreme leader. Iranian officials have described the war as a existential one, with the Guards taking over the strategy.

What is at stake?

Kuwait, Iran Iraq, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates are oil and gas producing countries. The only sea exit is the narrow passage of water that connects the Gulf of Oman with the Gulf of Iran.

On Monday, oil prices briefly rose to their highest levels since 2022. According to the United Nations, high oil prices may trigger another cost of living crisis like what happened in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine.

A prolonged conflict may also lead to a fertilizer shortage, putting the global food supply at risk. According to Kpler, about 33% of all fertilisers in the world, including ammonia and sulphur, travel through the Strait.

A prolonged war could cause fears of an economic crisis in the world similar to the ones that followed the Middle East oil shocks of the 1970s.

Why is it so difficult to secure the streit?

According to shipping broker SSY Global, the shipping lanes are only two nautical miles wide. Ships must turn around and face Iranian islands as well as a mountainous coastline that offers cover for Iranian forces.

Tom Sharpe said that although the conventional navy of Iran has been largely destroyed, there are still many options available to the Guards. These include fast attack craft and mini submarines. They also have mines as well as jetskis with explosives.

According to the Centre for Information Resilience (a non-profit group of researchers), Tehran is able to produce 10,000 drones per month.

Sharpe stated that it would be possible to protect three or four vessels a day in the strait using seven or eight destroyers as air cover. However, this would only be feasible for a short time, depending on the reduction of the mini-submarine threat. To sustainably do so over months, however, would require additional resources.

Adel Bakawan of the European Institute for Middle East & North African Studies said that even if Iran were to lose its ability to deploy ballistic rockets, drones, and floating mines, there would still be a danger from suicide attacks.

Kevin Rowlands, Editor of the RUSI journal at the Royal United Services Institute, explained that if the war continues for several weeks, an escort would be formed.

He said that "the world needs oil flowing through the Gulf and there are plans in place to put protective measures in place."

What have the US and other countries promised?

On March 3, President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. will provide protection for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, but attacks have already occurred and very little has gotten through.

He said that he also ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (USDFC) to provide insurance and guarantee for shipping companies.

Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said that several European countries as well as India and?other Asian nations were planning a mission to 'provide protection. He said that such a mission could only be carried out once the conflict is over.

France has deployed a dozen navy vessels, including an aircraft carrier strike group to the Red Sea, the Eastern Mediterranean and possibly the Strait of Hormuz.

A spokesperson for the British government said that British Prime Minister Keir starmer had spoken with the German and Italian leaders on options to support commercial shipping through the Strait.

"We are looking at various options," General Caine said to reporters on Tuesday at the Pentagon without giving any details.

WHAT HAPPENED AT OTHER SHIPMENT CHOKEPOINTS?

Yemen's Houthis - a group allied to Tehran, but with a much smaller arsenal than Iran - managed to close down the majority of traffic through the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab strait, and on the way to the Suez Canal, for over?two years despite the protection provided by U.S.-led forces.

The majority of shipping companies still use a much longer route via southern tip Africa. Danish shipping company Maersk announced that it would return to the Suez Route in phases starting January.

The EU-led force that countered piracy off the coast of Somalia has had more success than Iran's Revolutionary Guards, but they were fighting against forces much less well-equipped.

AREN'T THERE OTHER WAYS TO USE THE STRAIT?

The UAE and Saudi Arabia are looking for ways to bypass this strait. They have built more oil pipelines.

These alternatives are also not operational at the moment. An attack by Houthi militants on a Saudi east-west pipeline in 2019 proved that they were vulnerable. (Additional reporting by Rene Maltezou, Kate Holton and Charlie Devereux, Writing by Angus McDowall and Timothy Heritage, Editing by Timothy Heritage).

(source: Reuters)