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Sinograin, a Chinese soybean company, announces its fourth major auction since July.
Sinograin, a Chinese company, announced on Friday that it will auction 360,000 metric tonnes of imported soybeans on August 19. Industry experts believe that the state stockpiler is clearing out space for incoming U.S. soyabeans, as evidenced by its fourth sale since July. According to a?notice from the National Grain Trade Centre, a?sale is scheduled for 1:30 pm (0530 GMT) on Wednesday. It will include soybeans produced between 2022 and 2025. After a 'May summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, China agreed to purchase 25 million tons of U.S. soya beans annually until 2028. Two traders in 'Asia' said that China has 'already bought about 7 million tonnes of U.S. soya beans as of this week and they expect Sinograin will continue auctions over the next few weeks. Reporting by Shi 'Bu, Yukun Zhu and Liz Lee Editing and David Goodson by Hugh Lawson
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The financial week in five charts - Bank boom, aluminum squeeze and smart freight
Open Interest (ROI), every Friday, distills the previous five days' financial week into five charts that highlight the most important trends, surprises, and overlooked moves. 1. HORMUZ REALISTIC CHECK CLYDE RUSSEL, 'ROI Asia Commodities and Energy'?Columnist : Middle East crude exports, including?flows across the Strait of Hormuz?, have been depressed this summer, say commodity analysts Kpler. The data is in line with other vessel tracking companies but it stands in stark contrast to the claims made by U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright this week that 15 million barrels of crude oil per day were leaving the region. This includes 9 million bpd flowing through 'Hormuz. 2. JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets columnist: The workers' share of U.S. GDP continues to decline, reaching a record low 52.9% in the second quarter. The Q2 earnings season showed a 'eye-watering' U.S. profit growth of more than 50%. Main Street and Wall Street are gaining ground in the economic pie. 3. INVENTORY DRAINS ANDY HOME, ROI Metals columnist: Aluminum inventories at the London Metal Exchange are down to their lowest levels since 1990. The supply-chain shocks from the Iran War are dwindling a market that was historically characterized by an oversupply. 4. AUTOMATION SHIFT GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transformation Columnist: The transportation sector, the largest energy consumer in the U.S., could be affected by automation. Automation could be used to reduce energy waste and change fuel demand in the U.S. 5. EURO BANKS BEAT MAG7 Mike Dolan, ROI Finance & Markets columnist: Goldman Sachs analysts this week tried to?bust myths that underlie negative views?of European equities. The most striking observation they made was that the boring old euro zone banks have outperformed U.S. megacap tech giants since early 2023 - before the term for Wall Street's high-flyers even existed. The Roundhill "Magnificent 7" exchange-traded funds has grown 182% since its launch. The main euro zone banking index, however, is up almost 210% in the same time period. This is driven by AI and the return of durable positive interest rates. The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and to integrity, independence and freedom from bias.
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Air Canada anticipates record revenue in September and October as premium passengers escape summer heat
Air Canada's revenue in?September?and October?will likely?break?records, as premium travelers are avoiding the summer heat and crowds of Europe and Japan. In recent years, large North American airlines have built their business around corporate clients, loyalty program members and premium travelers. They bet that these customers will not pull out when fares increase. The increased demand for corporate flights in the?autumn, combined with changing travel patterns of premium leisure passengers, are raising expectations among executives for seasons that were once considered slower as compared to peak travel months like July or August. Mark Galardo, Chief Commercial Officer at Air Canada, said in an interview with The Canadian Press on Thursday that "we anticipate that September-October will be the strongest ever from a revenue perspective." He added: "We have seen a tremendous increase in the?demand of people who travel business class for trips to Italy, Spain and France. The Mediterranean region in general is also a popular destination, as well as Japan." "And these customers tend to avoid the summer peak." Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and other U.S. carriers have reported that the changing travel patterns are driving more demand for autumn travel, especially to lucrative European destinations. This summer, Europe has been hit by record heat, wildfires, droughts, and lack of air conditioning. Some destinations have become less appealing to tourists because of this. Japan has also experienced very hot days, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit). Galardo noted that the trend amongst premium travellers, who began to fly more in spring or autumn two or three year ago, has accelerated and is even showing an increase in November. PREMIUM STORY Air Canada hasn't seen any similar changes in the travel patterns of budget passengers. Galardo stated that "that shift to the autumn season is really a premium story." Galardo stated that the change in Air Canada's business model has already led to it adding flights to European leisure destinations such as Sicily and Mallorca. There will be even more next year when new aircraft are delivered to the carrier. He said that he expected the fall and spring to be major contributors?to these routes. Air Canada has been prompted to develop a maintenance strategy to help balance seasonality. For example, some planes could be brought in for repairs in the summer so that they are ready to fly in September. (Reporting from Allison Lampert, Montreal; Additional reporting from Rajesh Kumar Singh, Chicago; Editing done by Jamie Freed).
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Sources: Drone attack damages Novatek's Ust-Luga processing complex for gas condensate, according to sources
Three industry sources have confirmed that a drone attack on August 14 'damaged' the complex for processing gas condensate at the Baltic port of Ust-Luga, owned by Russian gas producer Novatek. Novatek didn't respond to an immediate?request for comments. Two sources confirmed that the drone attack had no impact on oil export operations at the terminal in?Ust-Luga. Ust-Luga, one of Russia's most important?oil-export terminals, loads about 700,000 barrels?of crude per day. Alexander Drozdenko, the Leningrad Region Governor, said earlier on Friday that a drone had caused a fire in the Ust-Luga Port. Drone attacks have repeatedly targeted Ust-Luga’s port infrastructure and terminals. Three processing units at Novatek’s Ust-Luga Complex each have a?capacity? of 3 million metric tonnes a year. They refine stable gas condensate into light and heavy naphthas, jet fuels, ship fuel oils and gasoils. According to company data, the complex processed 3.8 million tonnes of gas condensate in the first half this year.
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Smart trucks and tugs that never sleep. Automation rewires US transport: Maguire
U.S. Transportation has become increasingly efficient with advances in engine technologies, infrastructure upgrades and more sophisticated logistic networks. The next wave will be different. The automation of transportation networks is transforming them into continually optimizing systems. These systems consume less energy for each unit moved, work longer, and reduce labor bottlenecks. They also reshape the demand for fuels, electricity, and other resources. Software increasingly dictates the way energy is consumed in the United States and how goods are transported. In Texas, driverless trucks haul commercial loads while AI is deployed on Mississippi River tugboats. Rails are increasingly relying on automated inspection and machine vision systems. Aviation regulators prepare for a world where cargo flights will operate with less human intervention. Viewed separately, ?these developments may appear incremental. They point to an increasingly autonomous, constantly?optimized, and more productive freight economy. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), transportation is the biggest source of energy in the U.S. It accounts for 37% of the total energy consumption. Around 70% of the total U.S. petroleum product demand is accounted for by transportation. A major overhaul in the transportation sector will have a far-reaching impact on the U.S. as well as global energy markets for the next decade. THE MISSISSIPPI GOES DIGITAL The Mississippi River, the oldest freight artery of North America, is one of the latest adopters. America's inland waters move hundreds of millions tons of commodities each year, including fertilizer and grain, as well as biofuel feedstocks. Waterborne transportation accounts for just 4% of U.S. fuel consumption. In the past, river navigation was a human-experienced activity. To navigate the changing river conditions, captains relied on their local knowledge, visual observations and accumulated judgement. This is changing. The situation is changing. The technology can monitor hazards, track vessels, calculate stopping distances and analyze river conditions. It also identifies strategies to save fuel. It goes beyond navigation. The river transportation has an energy efficiency advantage over trucking. Towboats use buoyancy to do the majority of the work, while the water flow does the rest. According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, one?gallon of diesel fuel can move a cargo of one ton more than 500 miles by barge. This compares to 60 miles for a truck. Automating barge traffic will increase this advantage by reducing fuel consumption, improving planning and minimizing delays. It is important because many of the commodities that travel on these waterways have energy content, from fuels, crude oil, and coal to biofuels. Transport costs that are lower can have a ripple effect on commodity markets and ultimately result in lower prices for energy-intensive goods. TRUCKS THAT NEVER SLEEEP American highways are likely to see the most noticeable automation revolution. The trucking industry, which accounts for more than 60% of the total fuel used in U.S. transport, is on the verge of a major overhaul. Trucking has improved over the years due to better aerodynamics and logistics software, as well as new engines. One constraint, however, remained the same: trucks would stop when drivers stopped. This limitation is removed by autonomous trucking. Aurora Innovation, along with other self-driving tech developers, have shown that driverless freight operations are commercially viable in Texas. They are working on a model where trucks will be used almost continuously. Theoretically, autonomous trucks could operate around the clock and not just during federally mandated driving times. This is a very different type of productivity improvement from previous transport advancements. The Industrial Revolution largely improved transportation by enhancing the power of machines. Automation increases asset utilization. The productivity of a truck that can move freight 20 hours a day, instead of 10, is doubled. This reduces the need for idle equipment across the network. Energy implications are complex. Automated systems can optimize speed, brake and acceleration to reduce fuel consumption per mile. Improved routing and platooning - where trucks move in close convoys for reduced drag - could reduce diesel consumption. A reduction in freight costs may stimulate demand. The history shows that efficiency improvements have often led to an increase in overall activity. If driverless systems dramatically lower shipping costs, freight volume could increase enough to offset fuel saving. Over time, however, autonomous fleets may also be able to accelerate the electric trucking industry through centralized fleet management and optimized charging schedules. It would not only reduce costs, but also shift the energy demand away from diesel. RAIL'S QUIET REVOLUTION The railroads are one of the most mature examples of automation, but they're also the least talked about. Rail automation, unlike the autonomous truck story, is happening behind the scenes, through sensors, digital maps and predictive analytics. Freight railroads deploy automated track inspection systems more and more while trains are still in motion. Lasers, cameras, and machine-learning system continuously monitor track condition, wheel integrity, and equipment performance. This is a major shift in the way we monitor our systems. In the past, maintenance of rails was based on visual inspections. Defects are usually discovered after they become significant problems. Automated systems are increasingly able to identify problems before they pose a risk. Wabtec is a major rail technology company and locomotive manufacturer. They have developed Pathfinder, an easy-to-use device. Pathfinder equips standard locomotives using hardware and sensors with digital capabilities, cameras and autonomous?operation. Pathfinder, and other digital upgrade systems, could enable smaller railroad operators to upgrade their train lines using advanced autonomous technologies such as Positive Train Control and trip Optimizer. Benefits go beyond safety. A more reliable infrastructure allows trains to move faster, reduces bottlenecks, and increases asset utilization. Rail is the most efficient land transportation mode, accounting for only 2% of all transportation fuel used in the U.S. Any shift from trucks to rails could reduce energy intensity across the economy. This may be one of the most underrated energy contributions of automation: it allows for greater use of modes of transport that consume less fuel per tonne-mile. AVIATION'S NEXT FUTURE Aviation is the least automated sector of transport, but this may change soon. The Federal Aviation Administration has started developing regulatory frameworks to support increasingly automated operations. Reliable Robotics, for example, is developing FAA-certified autonomous cargo aircraft that can operate from gate to door under remote supervision. The U.S. Air Force also invests in pilotless cargo planes that can be integrated into civil airspace. Aviation automation is about increasing operational flexibility. Remote or autonomous cargo planes could connect smaller towns, improve logistics resilience, and create new freight network that is currently uneconomical. Initial energy savings could be modest. Aviation fuel consumption in the United States is only 9%, but aircraft are heavily optimized. Automation could open up new transport models, especially in regional cargo, advanced air mobility, and electric-powered flight. Aviation automation could be compared to the early days on the Internet: the biggest impact may not come from making current activities cheaper, but by creating new options that were previously unavailable. What this means for energy markets The narrative that is most commonly heard about transport automation is that machines will replace people. This is a narrow view. Software is replacing inefficiency. Backhauls that are empty. Backhauls that are empty. River delays. Fuel waste. Preventable rail slowdowns. Unutilized aircraft. This inefficiency represents hidden energy consumption throughout the economy. Automating these losses is a direct way to reduce them. Maintenance can be more proactive than reactive, and as transportation systems become smarter, they can smoothen freight movements, increase asset life, and improve logistics networks. This could lead to an economy that is able to move significantly more goods, without having to increase?energy consumption proportionally. NON-STOP LOGISTICS? Fuel transitions is often referred to as energy transitions. History shows that productivity shifts are often the most important economic transformative factors. Steam power was important because it multiplied human effort. Electricity increased productivity in factories and homes. Computing has reduced the cost to obtain information. Transportation automation is part of that lineage. AI-assisted boats on the Mississippi and autonomous trucks in Texas are part of the U.S.'s freight system, which is designed to save time, reduce fuel consumption, and maximize output. It may not matter whether trucks run on batteries, diesel or hydrogen. The question is whether trucks ever have to stop. The opinions expressed are those of the columnist, author. This column is a great read! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Drone incursions cause chaos and fear along NATO's Baltic border with Finland
The presence of military drones in the airspaces of Finland, Estonia Latvia and Lithuania is raising concerns that the conflict in Ukraine could spill over into NATO's northern border with Russia. Some of Ukraine's drones missed their targets, causing security warnings to be issued in neighboring countries. In Latvia, it led to the collapse of the government. The following is a timeline of recent drone incidents that involved Finland and the three Baltic states: March 25 - Two Ukrainian military drones that escaped from Russia enter Estonia and Latvia. One drone crashes into a chimney near the Russian border at Estonia's Auvere Power Station, while another crashes in Latvia. Lithuania reported earlier that a Ukrainian drone crashed into a lake. From March 29-30, Finland reports that unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) have violated its territorial boundaries in the southeast of the country and deploys F/A-18 jet fighters. One object identified as a Ukrainian AN-196 manned drone. According to Petteri Orpo, the Finnish Prime Minister, strong Russian electronic jamming may explain why drones are drifting in Finnish airspace. The 31st of March - Estonia, Latvia and Finland detect foreign drone activity in their border areas with Russia. A drone is also found by the Finnish border guard. Estonia discovers drone debris in Tartu County. Estonian armed forces claim that drones found in the country are believed to be from Ukraine, and were intended for Russia. May 7 - Latvian and Lithuania ask NATO to increase air defences following two suspected stray drones that crossed from Russia and crashed in Latvia. One of the drones explodes in the Latvian area of Rezekne and damages four empty oil tanks. Andris Spruds, Latvia's Defence Minister, resigns on May 10, after Evika Silina said that anti-drone system had not been deployed quickly enough. Ukraine claims that the drones are Ukrainian, but were diverted by Russian electronic warfare. Silina resigns from her position as Latvia's prime minister on May 14, triggering the collapse?of Latvia's coalition government after Spruds’ Progressives party withdrew its support. The authorities in Finland have warned 1.8 million residents of the greater Helsinki area to remain indoors due to suspected drone activity. They also suspended air traffic at the airport and scrambled fighter jets. Alexander Stubb, President of Finland, says that Finland is not directly under military threat. May 17-18 - Explosives were found near the debris from a suspected Ukrainian drone that crashed near the Latvian border, Belarus and Lithuania. A Romanian NATO fighter plane shoots down an suspected Ukrainian drone after it entered Estonian airspace via Russia on May 19. Ukraine apologizes to Estonia and other Baltic Allies, claiming that Russia redirected a drone via electronic warfare and denies using Latvian and?Estonian territories to launch attacks on Russia. Lithuania warns the people of Vilnius that they should take cover and stops traffic at its airport due to a drone flying in their airspace. Lithuanian legislators seek shelter underground in the parliament while train traffic has been suspended and schools and kindergartens have taken children to shelters. NATO fighter jets have been sent to the border regions of Russia and Belarus in order to combat this threat. On June 3, Latvia and Estonia issued warnings to residents in the bordering regions of Russia asking them to seek shelter overnight if they suspect any drone activity. In response, Latvia claims that NATO fighter jets have been scrambled. June 8: A French NATO fighter plane shoots down an unmanned aerial vehicle in Latvian airspace. Officials say that tourists have cancelled their visits to the Latvian bordering regions of Russia due to fears about drone incursions. Andris Kulbergs, the new Baltic Prime Minister, has stated that he plans to spend his summer holidays in the affected region. Finland temporarily restricts airspace and marine traffic off its coast, near the Russian border. From July 2 to 28, the restrictions will last for a period of time. The military announced on July 28 that these precautionary measures are being taken to "ensure the authorities can?operate" if drones stray in the area. The Latvian armed forces report that on August 14, jets in a NATO defense mission shot down a drone which entered Latvian airspace. Finland's defence forces have announced that it has temporarily restricted airspace and maritime traffic in the eastern Gulf of Finland to prevent possible drones.
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Governor says that fire effects have cleared at the Russian port of Ust-Luga following a drone attack
The Russian authorities quickly cleaned up the damage caused by an attack from a Ukrainian drone that sparked a fire in Ust-Luga on Friday, a major hub for oil exports. Ukraine has struck targets in Russia, including ports, refineries, and commercial warehouses in an effort to raise the cost for Moscow to continue the full-scale conflict it launched in 2022. Drozdenko wrote on the Russian messaging service MAX that "all the consequences of the attack at the port of Ust-Luga?have been cleared." "There were not any casualties." He did not provide any further information. Drozdenko had earlier claimed that more than '50 drones were brought down 'overnight' in the northern area around St Petersburg. Fuel shortages have resulted from the attacks on more than a dozen refineries, some of which were hit repeatedly. The governor of Tver, northwest of Moscow, reported that an attack was carried out 'overnight' on the warehouse of Wildberries.com. Their sites had been targeted over?20 time in the last month. He said that debris from "enemy" drones damaged the wall of the facility, but no one was injured. Finland has temporarily curbed movements in certain parts of the Baltic Sea in order to protect against drone attacks. (Reporting and editing by Mark Trevelyan, Clarence Fernandez and Jekaterina Glubkova at the Tokyo and Moscow bureau)
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Smart trucks and tugs that never sleep. Automation rewires US transport: Maguire
U.S. Transportation has become increasingly efficient with advances in engine technologies, infrastructure upgrades and more sophisticated logistic networks. The next wave will be different. Automation transforms transportation networks into continually optimizing systems. These systems consume less energy for each unit of movement, work longer hours, and reduce labor bottlenecks. They also reshape the demand for fuels, electricity, and other resources. Software increasingly dictates the way energy is consumed in the United States and how goods are transported. In Texas, driverless trucks haul commercial loads while AI is deployed on Mississippi River tugboats. Rails are increasingly relying on automated inspection and machine vision systems. Aviation regulators prepare for a future where cargo flights will operate with less human interaction. These developments, when viewed separately, may seem incremental. Together, these developments?indicate a freight industry that is more autonomous, continually optimized, and more productive. According to the Energy Information Administration, transportation is the largest source of energy in the U.S. It accounts for 37% of the total energy consumed. The transportation sector also accounts for around 70% of the total U.S. petroleum product demand. A major overhaul in the transportation sector will have a far-reaching impact on the U.S. as well as global energy markets for the next decade. THE MISSISSIPPI GOES DIGITAL The Mississippi River, the oldest freight artery of North America, is one of the latest adopters. America's inland waters move hundreds of millions tons of commodities each year, including fertilizer and grain, as well as biofuel feedstocks. Waterborne transportation accounts for just 4% of U.S. fuel consumption. In the past, river navigation was a human-experienced activity. To navigate the changing river conditions, captains relied on their local knowledge, visual observations and accumulated judgement. This is changing. The situation is changing. The technology can monitor hazards, track vessels, calculate stopping distances and analyze river conditions. It also identifies strategies to save fuel. It goes beyond navigation. The river transportation has an energy efficiency advantage over trucking. Towboats use buoyancy to do the majority of the work, while the water flow does the rest. According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, one gallon of gasoline can?move more than 500 miles a ton of cargo on a barge compared to 60 miles in a truck. Automating barge traffic will increase this advantage by reducing fuel consumption, improving planning and minimizing delays. It is important because many of the commodities that travel on these waterways have energy content, ranging from crude oil and coal to fuels, to biofuel inputs. Transport costs that are lower can have a ripple effect on commodity markets and ultimately result in lower prices for energy-intensive goods. TRUCKS THAT NEVER SLEEEP American highways are likely to see the most noticeable automation revolution. The trucking industry, which accounts for more than 60% of the total fuel used in U.S. transport, is on the verge of a major overhaul. Trucking has improved over the years through better engines, aerodynamics and logistics software. One constraint, however, remained constant: trucks would stop when the driver stopped. This limitation is being removed by autonomous trucking. Aurora Innovation, along with other self-driving tech developers, have shown that driverless freight operations are commercially viable in Texas. They are working on a model where trucks will be used almost continuously. Theoretically, autonomous trucks could operate around the clock and not just during federally mandated driving times. This is a very different type of productivity improvement from previous transport advancements. The Industrial Revolution improved transportation by making machines more powerful. Automation increases asset utilization. The productivity of a truck that can move freight 20 hours a day, instead of 10, is doubled. This reduces the need for idle equipment across the network. Energy implications are complex. Automated systems can reduce fuel consumption by optimizing speed, braking and acceleration. Improved routing and platooning - where trucks are moved in close convoys to reduce drag - could further reduce diesel consumption. A reduction in freight costs may stimulate demand. The history shows that efficiency improvements have often led to an increase in overall activity. If driverless systems dramatically lower shipping costs, freight volume could increase enough to offset fuel saving. Over time, however, autonomous fleets may also be able to accelerate the electric trucking industry through optimized charging schedules, and centralized fleet-management. It would not only reduce costs, but also shift the energy demand away from diesel. RAIL'S QUIET REVOLUTION The railroads are one of the most mature examples of automation, but they're also the least talked about. Rail automation, unlike the autonomous truck story, is happening behind the scenes, through sensors, digital maps and predictive analytics. Freight railroads deploy automated track inspection systems more and more while trains are still in motion. Lasers, cameras, and machine-learning system continuously monitor track condition, wheel integrity, and equipment performance. This is a major shift in the way we monitor our systems. In the past, maintenance of rails was based on visual inspections. In most cases, defects were only discovered after they became serious problems. Automated systems are increasingly able to identify problems before they pose a risk. Wabtec is a major rail technology company and locomotive manufacturer. They have developed Pathfinder, an easy-to-use device. Pathfinder equips standard locomotives using hardware and sensors with digital capabilities, cameras and autonomous operation. Pathfinder, and other digital upgrade systems, could enable smaller railroad operators to upgrade their train lines using advanced autonomous technologies such as Positive Train Control and trip Optimizer. Benefits go beyond safety. A more reliable infrastructure allows trains to move faster, reduces bottlenecks and increases asset utilization. Rail is the most efficient land transportation mode, accounting for only 2% of all transportation fuel used in the U.S. Any shift from trucks to rails could reduce energy intensity across the economy. This may be one of the most underrated energy contributions from automation: it allows for greater use?of modes of transportation that consume less fuel per tonne-mile. AVIATION'S NEXT FUTURE Aviation is the least automated sector of transport, but this may change soon. The Federal Aviation Administration has started developing regulatory frameworks to support increasingly automated operations. Companies such as Reliable Robotics pursue FAA-certified autonomous cargo?aircraft that can operate from gate to gate under remote supervision. The United States. The U.S. Aviation automation is about increasing operational flexibility. Remote or autonomous cargo planes could connect smaller towns, improve logistics resilience, and create new freight network that is currently uneconomical. Initial energy savings could be modest. Aviation fuel consumption in the United States is only 9%, despite aircraft being heavily optimized. Automation could open up new transportation models. This is especially true for regional cargo, advanced air mobility, and electric-powered flight. Aviation automation could be compared to the early days on the Internet: the biggest impact may not come from making current activities cheaper, but by creating new options that were previously unavailable. What this means for energy markets Transport automation is often characterized by the narrative that machines replace people. This is too narrow. Software is replacing inefficiency. Backhauls that are empty. Backhauls that are empty. River delays. Fuel waste. Preventable rail slowdowns. Unutilized aircraft. This inefficiency represents hidden energy consumption throughout the economy. Automating these losses is a direct way to reduce them. Transportation systems can become smarter as they become more advanced. Freight movements can be smoother and assets can run longer. Maintenance can become proactive rather than reactive. The result could be an economy that is able to move significantly more goods with a lower energy consumption. NON-STOP ?LOGISTICS? Fuel transitions is often referred to as energy transitions. History shows that productivity shifts are often the most important economic transformative factors. Steam power was important because it multiplied the?human effort. Electricity increased productivity in factories and homes. Computing has reduced the cost to obtain information. Transportation automation is part of that lineage. AI-assisted boats on the Mississippi and autonomous trucks in Texas are part of the U.S.'s freight system, which is designed to save time, reduce fuel consumption, and maximize output. It may not matter whether trucks run on batteries, diesel or hydrogen. The question is whether trucks ever have to stop.
Maguire: The ROI-US Energy Cushion faces a new stress test when Middle East risks are rising again
Since years, the US has become less vulnerable to the turmoil in the Middle East.
The United States, as 'the world's leading producer of natural gas and oil, is better protected from supply shocks overseas than it was during previous Gulf crises. The latest escalation between Iran and the Houthis comes at a sensitive time.
Energy infrastructure in the U.S. is already being strained by record electricity consumption, summer fuel peak, and growing data center?load.
The 'country is still a 'energy-rich country, but the question now is not whether it has an abundance of supplies, but if production can expand fast enough to keep up with demand.
This helps to explain why traders and policymakers pay unusually close attention a few key indicators. Together, these indicators provide a measure of resilience in the U.S. Energy System as geopolitical risk in the Middle East is once again at the forefront of energy markets.
METRICS KEY
Metrics that are closely monitored include crude oil production, natural-gas output, electricity production, refinery throughput, gasoline supply and storage levels of natural gas.
Each provides a unique window on the strains across the entire energy system.
Crude oil production is a good indicator of whether the domestic supply continues to grow fast enough to offset global disruptions.
Natural gas production will reveal whether the fuel that powers much of the U.S. electricity sector can keep up with the rising demand for electricity.
The data shows how utilities are working hard to meet the peak summer load from homes, businesses, and data centers.
The refinery's throughput and the gasoline production are used to determine if enough fuel is produced for transportation during the busiest driving period of the year.
Natural gas storage levels are the ultimate balancing metrics, showing if the system is still able to balance supply and demand comfortably or if the cushion of the system has begun to shrink.
These indicators, when taken together, show whether the United States has added spare capacity or resilience to existing infrastructure, or is simply operating it closer to its limit.
CRUDE OIL
According to U.S. Energy Information Administration data, U.S. crude production is close to a record of 13.8 million barrels a day (bpd). This helps offset external'supply shocks.
Baker Hughes reports that only 450 drilling rigs are currently active, compared to a peak of 1,600 in 2014. This means there is still some drilling capacity available if drilling costs improve.
This potential for a supply response could help to temper concerns about prolonged oil price spikes resulting from geopolitical disruptions, or tighter global inventory.
NATURAL GAS
According to the EIA U.S. dry-gas production is close to a record of 111 billion cubic foot per day (Bcf/d), supporting a power industry increasingly dependent on gas-fired generators. The rig count suggests that there is room for growth in the short term, but mature basins and increasing extraction costs may limit long-term supply.
The U.S. Gas Markets are well-positioned to meet the rising demand. However, longer-term growth may be more limited than previous cycles.
REFINED PRODUCTS Refineries operate at near-record rates, processing over 17 million barrels per day of crude oil. Gasoline inventories are about 9% lower than a year ago, which indicates that fuel supplies are tighter than what refinery activity would suggest.
The fact that U.S. refining facilities are heavily geared towards exports is a major factor in limiting the growth of domestic fuel supplies. Fuel costs on several international markets are significantly higher than those in the U.S.
The strong demand for exports has therefore limited the amount of inventory that can be accumulated at home as a result of increased refinery activity.
GAS STORAGE
Storage is a reflection of the balance between demand and supply.
Gas inventories in the U.S. are similar to last year's, which indicates adequate reserves. However, near-record LNG imports indicate that underlying conditions may be tighter than data on storage suggests.
In the short term, LNG exporters will be able to purchase large quantities of gas due to strong demand in Asia and Europe. This could lead them into a competition with power generators for gas supply.
ELECTRICITY GENERATION
According to LSEG data, U.S. -power generation has increased by around 2% compared to a year earlier, mainly due the widespread heatwaves and the steadily increasing electricity demand of homes, businesses, and data centers.
The increasing power consumption makes it more important to have a reliable fuel supply and adequate generating capacity at peak demand periods.
The U.S. energy system continues to grow, but periods of low wind generation, extreme temperature or other operational disruptions may quickly cause a tightening in supply-demand and lead to a greater reliance on gas-fired power plants.
In the United States, the amount of spare capacity in our energy system is a key indicator.
The Big Picture
These indicators together provide a measure of energy resilience in the United States.
The overall balance is reflected in the oil and gas production, power generation, refined products, fuel availability, and gas storage.
The data indicates that the energy system is well-supplied.
As tensions in the Middle East rise and domestic demand continues to climb, these metrics can reveal whether or not the United States has built new resilience - or is simply relying upon ever-thinner margins for spare capacity.
These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)