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Maguire: The ROI-US Energy Cushion faces a new stress test when Middle East risks are rising again

Since years, America's decreasing vulnerability to the turmoil in the Middle East has been a defining feature of the global energy market.

The United States, as the largest oil and gas producer in the world, is better protected from supply shocks overseas than it was before the Gulf crisis. The latest escalation between Iran and the Houthis comes at a sensitive time.

The U.S. Energy System is already under heavy strain. Record electricity demand, peak summer fuel consumption, growing data center load, and persistent reliance upon gas-fired generators push infrastructure to its limits.

The?country is still rich in energy, but the question now is not whether there are enough supplies or if production can keep up with demand.

This helps to explain why traders and policymakers pay unusually close attention a few key indicators. Together, these indicators provide a measure of resilience in the U.S. Energy System as geopolitical risk in the Middle East is once again at the forefront of energy markets.

KEY METRICS

Metrics that are closely monitored include crude oil production, electricity, gasoline, refinery output and throughput, as well as natural gas storage.

Each provides a unique window on the strains across the entire energy system.

Crude oil production is a good indicator of whether the domestic supply can offset global disruptions.

Natural gas production will reveal whether the fuel that powers much of the U.S. electricity sector can keep up with the rising demand for electricity.

The data shows how utilities are working hard to meet the peak summer load from homes, businesses and data centers.

The refinery's throughput and the gasoline production are used to determine if enough fuel is produced for transportation during the busiest driving period of the year.

Natural gas storage levels are the ultimate balancing metrics, showing if the system is still able to balance supply and demand comfortably or if the cushion of the system is beginning to shrink.

These indicators, when taken together, show whether the United States has added spare capacity or resilience to existing infrastructure, or is simply operating it closer to its limit.

CRUDE OIL

According to U.S. Energy Information Administration data, U.S. crude production is close to a record of 13.8 million barrels a day (bpd). This helps offset 'external supply shocks.

Baker Hughes reports that only 450 drilling rigs are currently active, compared to a peak of 1,600 in 2014. This means there is still some drilling capacity available if drilling costs improve.

This?potential of a supply response could help to temper concerns about prolonged oil price spikes resulting from geopolitical disruptions, or from tighter global inventory.

NATURAL GAS

According to the EIA U.S. dry-gas production is close to a record of 111 billion cubic foot per day (Bcf/d), supporting a power industry increasingly dependent on gas-fired generators. The rig count suggests that there is room for growth in the short term, but mature basins and increasing extraction costs may limit long-term supply.

The U.S. Gas Markets are well-positioned to meet the rising demand. However, longer-term growth may be more limited than previous cycles.

REFINED PRODUCTS Refineries operate at near-record rates, processing over 17 million barrels per day of crude oil. Gasoline inventories are about 9% lower than a year ago, which indicates that fuel supplies are tighter than what refinery activity would suggest.

The fact that U.S. fuel refineries are heavily geared toward exports is a major factor in limiting the growth of domestic fuel supplies. Fuel costs on several international markets are significantly higher than U.S. prices.

The strong demand for exports has therefore limited the amount of inventory that can be accumulated at home as a result of increased refinery activity.

GAS STORAGE

Storage is a reflection of the balance between demand and supply.

Gas inventories in the U.S. are similar to last year's, which indicates adequate reserves. However, near-record LNG shipments suggest that underlying conditions may be tighter.

In the short term, LNG exporters will be able to purchase large quantities of gas due to a strong demand in Asia and Europe. This could lead them into a competition with power generators for gas supply.

ELECTRICITY GENERATION

According to LSEG data, U.S. -power generation has increased by around 2% compared to a year earlier, mainly due the widespread heatwaves and the steadily increasing electricity demand of homes, businesses, and data centers.

The increasing power consumption makes it more important to have a reliable fuel supply and adequate generating capacity at peak demand periods.

The U.S. power system is able to meet increasing loads despite periods of low wind generation. Extreme temperatures, or other operational disruptions, can cause a tightening in supply-demand and lead to a greater reliance on gas-fired plant.

Electricity generation is a key indicator for the U.S. Energy System.

The Big Picture

These indicators together provide a measure of energy resilience in the United States.

The oil and gas industry shows a strong supply, while power generation and refined products show a steady demand. Gas storage and fuel availability are tracked.

The data indicates that the energy system is well-supplied.

As tensions in the Middle East rise and domestic demand continues to climb, these metrics can reveal if the United States has built new resilience or relying solely on ever-thinner margins for spare capacity.

These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)