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Maguire: The boom in renewable energy in Europe is causing a fall-off of gas demand.

In recent years, the question that has defined Europe's energy history is whether it has enough gas. This question is becoming outdated.

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, traders, policymakers and utilities became focused on storage levels, LNG cargo arrivals, and winter weather forecasts. Gas inventories were the main measure of Europe's security in terms of energy.

A new trend is emerging in Europe's power system, which suggests that Europe may be increasingly asking the wrong question.

It is not a question of whether Europe has enough gas. It is not a question of whether Europe needs as much gas now as it did in the past.

The combined electricity generated by Europe's solar and wind farms will surpass the output of gas-fired plants in 2026 for the first time ever.

This may seem like another milestone in the clean energy industry. It could be a sign of a major structural change in the European gas market.

RENEWABLES ARE NOW THE CENTRE OF ATTENTION

Gas used to generate more electricity than the combined output of Europe's wind- and solar-powered fleet.

Data from the energy think tank Ember show that in 2016, solar and wind combined monthly output generally hovered around 30 to 45 terawatt-hours (TWh), whereas gas-fired production often exceeded 100TWh.

Today, the gap is gone.

Solar and wind combined output has increased to 80-110 Terawatt Hours per month, while gas-fired power generation has been steadily losing ground.

Renewable generation has matched or even exceeded gas output in many areas of 2025 and beyond.

This is not just the result of good weather.

Over the last quarter-century, Europe's gas-fired power generation capacity has only grown modestly from 250 gigawatts up to 400 GW. Over the same time period, wind and solar capacity has risen from 20 GW up to almost 750 GW.

In Europe, wind and solar power is now installed at nearly double the rate of gas-fired power.

That distinction matters.

Weather can explain temporary shifts in generation. The changes in the footprints of generation fleets drive structural shifts.

Europe has been steadily building a power system based on renewable resources, rather than fossil fuels, for the past two decades.

After a sufficient amount of renewable capacity has been?installed?, the decline in fossil generation is no longer a policy goal but a?mathematical consequence.

The data suggests that Europe has crossed this threshold.

Fewer months of gas burning

Even more interesting are seasonal generation statistics.

Gas has historically been the mainstay of Europe's energy system. Demand peaks in winter, but falls in spring and summer.

Now wind and solar are increasingly dominating the April-through-October period.

By 2026, the renewable energy sector will have reached new highs and coal and gas production will be at multi-year lows. As renewables provide a greater share of electricity, the traditional gas-burning season is getting shorter.

This could be a game changer for the gas market.

Each month, the use of renewable energy reduces gas demand and lowers imports of gas.

The?HIDDEN STOCKAGE STORY

Gas inventories may have the most significant impact.

Storage has been a crucial insurance policy in Europe since 2022 against disruptions of supply and seasonal demand spikes.

If the power sector gas demand continues to shrink, Europe might not need as much gas in storage during summer or as little gas withdrawn during winter.

Storage will remain important during periods of cold weather and low renewable energy output. As wind and solar power continue to replace gas, the continent may also need less gas.

The debate is now "How much gas does Europe actually need?" instead of "Does Europe currently have enough gas?" This?changes the debate from "Does Europe have enough gas?"

BRIDGE FUEL NOT MORE?

The trend is reinforced by the broader historical context.

Natural gas replaced coal as the main fuel in Europe's energy sector from the 1990s.

Renewables now pose a similar threat to gas.

Policymakers have described gas for years as a fuel that bridges the gap between coal and renewable energy.

The power system in Europe is increasingly looking like it's approaching the other side of this bridge.

Europe does not just produce cleaner electricity with each new wind farm or solar park. It is steadily decreasing the amount of natural gas that it must import, store and burn.

For a continent who spent years worrying about whether they would have enough fuel to make it through the winter, the ability to use less gas in the first instance may be the most significant energy development.

These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)