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Maguire: High fossil fuel consumption highlights US power transformation challenge

The United States continues to rely on fossil fuels for its power generation, despite the rapid expansion of clean energy.

According to Ember, U.S. generators have been prioritizing clean energy sources over fossil fuels for the past decade. Since 2014, they have increased clean electricity production capacity by more than 70%, while reducing fossil-fired generation by 5%.

LSEG reports that fossil fuels still dominate the nation's power generation, with just over 58% of the total generated in the first eight month of 2024.

This is a decrease from 60.4% in the same month of 2021. It reflects efforts to increase generation using clean energy, as part net zero emission targets.

In absolute terms, fossil fuels have reached new heights in this year's output, as a result of the steadily increasing total energy demand, which is putting strain on all power systems in the country.

In order to keep up with the rapid growth in demand, which is fueled by data centers and artificial-intelligence applications, power companies have had to increase their production from fossil fuels along with clean energy sources. This was despite long-term pledges to reduce reliance on fossil-fuels.

The fossil fuel generation of power generators will be reduced to a significant extent only when clean generation capacity surpasses fossil generation capacity and is complemented with a much larger battery storage system than the one currently in place.

Staying Power

According to LSEG, the total U.S. electricity generation from fossil fuels in the first eight month of 2024 reached 68.6 megawatt hours (MWh), up 2.8% compared to a year earlier and the highest level since at least the 2021.

The majority of the energy was generated by natural gas-fired power plants, which produced 49.3 millions MWh. This was a 5% increase from January to August 2023 and the highest total ever.

The coal-fired production was down by 2.3% compared to the previous year at 19,1 million MWh. This is the third consecutive decline in coal consumption during the window from January to August.

The oil-fired output was 179.368 MWh. This is a record low.

The industry's efforts to reduce the use of highly polluting fuels are reflected in the steady reduction in coal and oil fired generation.

Ember data shows that the emissions per unit of electricity produced by gas-fired power plants are among the lowest fossil fuels and 77% less than coal-fired generation.

Around 537,000 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) were emitted in 2024 for each terawatt-hour (TWh), of electricity generated by gas-fired power plants.

This compares with around 950,000 tonnes of CO2 from coal-fired power plants and 700,000 from oil-fired power plants.

CLEAN LIMITATIONS

The emissions from clean energy per TWh electricity are around 21,500 tonnes CO2, which is 25 times lower than the emissions from gas-fired plants.

This sharply reduced emissions profile is one of the main reasons why U.S. government and power companies support clean energy adoption within U.S. electricity generation.

In the first eight-month period of 2024, nuclear reactors will account for approximately 18.6% of the total U.S. generation.

Other major sources of clean energy include hydro dams (6.4%), wind farms (10.7%) and solar farms (5%)

Clean power sources are limited in their current capacities.

Nuclear power plants are the most reliable source of clean energy available, but they have fallen out-of-favor due to their high costs, long development times, and strict regulations regarding waste management.

Hydro dams are also subject to a long construction phase. They can only be used in certain areas and they face fierce environmental opposition.

Solar and wind farms are cheaper and quicker to build, but they have some drawbacks.

Construction costs for onshore wind farms have increased since 2020, mainly due to inflation in labor and parts. They also need to overcome local objections to get the green light. Offshore projects face similar obstacles, but at a higher cost.

Solar parks can be the fastest and cheapest way to generate power, but they only work during daylight hours. They require backup supplies when solar output drops.

The U.S. utilities responsible for ensuring that power is available at all times, regardless of time, rely on fossil fuels in order to meet most of their demand and fill any gaps in supply during periods of windlessness and sunless weather.

Many utilities are building battery networks to store excess clean energy for later use. This will help reduce fossil fuel dependence in the future.

According to the energy data platform Cleanview, current battery capacity installed is just around 21,000 Megawatts. This is less than 2% total installed generation capacity.

Batteries can only meet a small fraction of the country's power requirements.

Power firms may be forced to continue using fossil fuels as a major source of electricity until batteries are able to reliably deploy more of their generation capacity.

(source: Reuters)