Latest News

U.S. crude exports to Europe anticipated to fall in Jan as shipping economics weaken

U.S. crude oil exports to northwest Europe are most likely to slip early next year after hitting a record high in November, as the arbitrage for transatlantic shipments has knocked shut and freight rates have climbed, analysts stated today.

The spread between U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude and Brent futures has actually narrowed to a discount rate of around $3.40 per barrel over the last couple of sessions, closing at its narrowest point on Wednesday since October 2023 at minus $3.37. per barrel. A narrower spread makes it less economic to deliver. barrels from the U.S. across the Atlantic. The spread last. traded at minus $3.44 per barrel throughout Friday's session.

A discount of $4, in my opinion, is constantly the line in. the sand in between a big export number versus a small export. number, said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho.

The tighter spread comes as freight rates have increased and. stocks in the U.S. have fallen.

Crude stocks at the key storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma -. have dropped to 23 million barrels, their lowest mid-December. level in 17 years.

The decrease in stockpiles indicates U.S. barrels are being. priced to stay at home.

At the end of November, the WTI/Brent spread had broadened to. approximately $4.50 per barrel, motivating more flows throughout the. Atlantic Ocean to higher priced markets and driving U.S. crude. exports greater.

But the spike in flows may be short lived. Freight rates for. moving barrels from the U.S. Gulf Coast to northwest Europe have. climbed roughly $1 from November to around $3.80 per barrel. this month, according to information from product prices company Argus.

The constricting WTI/Brent spread contributed to those. higher freight rates which are being used to price shipments for. late January arrival, according to Sparta Commodities analyst. Neil Crosby.

We would expect more minimal U.S. to. Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp streams in the short-term to emerge,. Crosby said.

The addition of WTI Midland crude in the outdated Brent index. has actually suggested that the spread between the two is significantly. associated to freight rates, as the cost of Dated Brent is set. by WTI Midland on lots of trading days.

U.S. exports bound for Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hit a. record high of 771,000 barrels daily

(source: Reuters)