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Four US LNG cargos diverted from Europe to Asia

Analysts and shipping data indicate that four cargoes of LNG bound for Europe have changed their course in Asia over the past two weeks after European prices dropped below the Asian benchmark, creating an arbitrage opportunity for eastward deliveries.

In a year where Europe could need an additional 250 LNG cargoes in order to replenish its gas reserves ahead of the winter, more cargoes diverted from the Atlantic basin to the Pacific basin would increase the competition between the two basins.

Go Katayama said that the combination of better netbacks for Asia and lessening European price support rather than stronger Asian demands had led to an economic case, even if it was narrow, for redirection.

He said that "JKM premiums have increased over TTF, resulting in improved netbacks on U.S. origin cargoes."

This has reopened arbitrage channels, especially for delivery windows from June to July.

The Japan-Korea Marker (JKM), is the benchmark for LNG spot cargoes in Asia. The Dutch Title Transfer Facility is the benchmark price for natural gas in Europe.

Kpler data shows that the Energy Innovator, owned by Germany's RWE and controlled by Freeport LNG, Texas, left on April 7th. The tanker was originally destined for Dunkirk in France, but diverted to Cape of Good Hope by April 16.

Shell's New Nature tanker, which had departed Sabine Pass LNG in Louisiana from Europe on April 16, also changed direction to head south.

Alex Froley is a senior LNG analyst with data intelligence company ICIS. He said that two more tankers also had later arrival dates. This suggests a change of destination from Europe to Asia, which would add a few weeks travel time.

He said that the arrival date of the Pacific Success tanker was changed from April 22 until May 18 and the arrival date of the Orion Spirit tanker from April 24 to may 14.

The estimated arrival time on those indicates that they changed from a two week journey across the Atlantic, to a longer trip to Asia.

Kpler data indicates that the Orion Spirit, and Pacific Success, controlled by TotalEnergies were originally bound for Dunkirk in France, and Rostock in Germany, respectively.

Froley added that despite the project's proximity to Europe the first load from the Greater Tortue Ahemeyim offshore Mauritania, Senegal and the British Sponsor is headed towards Asia.

Kpler data indicates that BP's British sponsor is heading for Singapore.

"However," Froley said, "Europe should continue to receive large quantities of LNG. If storage injection rates begin to slow down, Europe will likely increase prices to pull back more cargoes." He added that Asian demand has not been growing strongly.

The change in the markets is more about how fast they have been moving lower over recent weeks due to weaker economic expectations.

Asian Spot LNG Prices Since mid-April, the price of oil has been at a near-year-low as demand remains tepid. On April 25, they were at $11.80 for a million British thermal unit (mmBtu).

The benchmark contract for the first month at the Dutch TTF hub was 32.10 euros or $10.62/mmBtu on Thursday. The contract had previously closed at $10.64/mmBtu in April.

(source: Reuters)