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Kazakhstan announces that the vast Tengiz fields will resume production soon, but at a scale that is uncertain
The energy ministry announced on Monday that Kazakhstan was poised to restart production at its largest oil field. However, industry sources reported that volumes were still very low, and there was still a force majeure in place for CPC Blend exports. Tengiz is Kazakhstan's biggest oilfield. It was recently affected by a number of incidents including drone attacks and power outages. Tengizchevroil led by Chevron temporarily halted the production of oil at Tengiz and Korolev fields on January 18. Chevron announced on Monday that it has resumed oil production without naming the specific field. OIL FIELD POWER RESTORED A Chevron spokesperson announced on Monday that "Tengizchevroil confirms the safe start-up of the site power distribution system, and the resumed of initial crude production." Separately on Monday, Kazakhstan's Energy Ministry said that Tengiz is preparing to resume oil production soon and that the Korolev Oilfield has already been operational. The ministry announced that the Tengiz Field?will soon be brought online again. At least two sources in the industry expressed their doubts about the'scale of the initial production.' They noted that TCO had yet to lift the force majeure imposed on CPC Blend after the field was shut down. Chevron has said that it will not comment on the specifics of its operations. According to one source, the fields are now producing only 8,000 metric tonnes per day. This is equivalent to about 60,000 barrels of oil per day. This is only 6% of their usual production levels. JPMorgan reported on Friday that Tengiz could remain offline throughout the month. It estimated Kazakhstan crude to be averaging between 1 million and 1.1 millions barrels per day in January, as opposed to the usual level of 1.8 million barrels. KAZAKHSTAN GOVERNMENT MEETS WITH EXXON Kazakh officials said that earlier Monday, Prime Minister Olzhas bektenov met with ExxonMobil vice president Peter Larden to urge the U.S. company to speed up work to resolve the problem and prevent future incidents. ExxonMobil, with a 25% share, is the second largest shareholder in TCO, behind Chevron which owns 50%. KazMunayGaz, a Kazakh company, holds 20% of the group. Lukoil from Russia has 5%. CASPIAN PIPELINE CONSORTIUM RESUMES SPM-3 OPERATIONS The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which operates Kazakhstan's major exporting pipeline, announced on Sunday that its terminal?on the Russian Black Sea Coast had returned to its full loading capacity after maintenance at one of three moorings points known as SPMs. A source in the industry said that the Paschalis DD crude oil tanker is'scheduled' to dock at the terminal on Monday, at 2 p.m. (1100 GMT) for loadings of the repaired SPM-3. According to an industry source the CPC's oil exports dropped by 24 percent in December compared to the previous month. This equates to around 1,02 million barrels of crude oil per day. Reporting by Felix Light and Vladimir Soldatkin; Additional reporting by Stephanie Kelly in London, Robert Harvey, and Ron Bousso; Editing and production by Guy Faulconbridge and Andrew Osborn; David Goodsborn and Tomaszjanowski.
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Vucic: MOL, the Hungarian oil company, offered to pay up to 1 billion Euros for Serbia's NIS Oil firm.
Aleksandar Vucic, the Serbian President, said that MOL of Hungary had agreed to pay as much as 1 billion euros to purchase a majority stake in Serbia's NIS oil company from its Russian owners. MOL announced on January 19 that it had entered into a binding contract to purchase the 56.16% of NIS owned jointly by Gazprom and Gazprom. The price was not disclosed. In October, the United States placed NIS on sanctions because it was targeting Russia's energy industry over Moscow's conflict in Ukraine. In a live broadcast by Belgrade's Blic TV, Vucic stated that the price for 56% of the company was between 900m and a billion euros. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), a U.S. government agency, must approve the transaction. The Russian?companies had until 24 March to?divest ownership. Vucic stated that Serbia was willing to pay Gazprom & Gazprom Neft twice the agreed price. However, he refused to explain why this deal failed as it would "threaten Serbian interests". U.S. sanctions led to the halting of oil deliveries via Croatia's Janaf, and the shutdown of NIS, the only refinery in the Balkans, which threatened winter fuel shortages. After the tentative agreement, OFAC granted NIS a reprieve from sanctions until February 20. This allowed it to import crude. Gazprom holds 11.3% of NIS and Gazprom Neft 44.9%. The?Serbian Government owns 29.9% of NIS, and the rest is owned by small shareholders and employees. NIS, apart from its oil refinery located in Pancevo in northern Serbia, supplies 80% the fuel needed by Serbia. It also has petrol stations in neighboring Bosnia, Bulgaria, and Romania.
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Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Exchange agree on gold clearing system and warehousing
Hong Kong and the Shanghai Gold Exchange struck a deal Monday to establish a central clearing system for gold, as well as to expand the warehousing capacity to support the city's market. The precious metal has reached a record price of $5,100 per ounce. The agreement signed between Hong Kong's Financial Services, the Treasury Bureau, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange at the Asian Financial Forum formalised the governance for the new Hong Kong Precious Metals Central Clearing Company. This system will begin its trial operation this year. The government announced that Hong Kong's airport authority - which runs the city’s main precious metals deposit - will increase the gold storage capacity of the city to more than 2,000 metric tonnes in three years. According to a separate government announcement, Hong Kong leader John Lee stated that the move would "see Hong Kong's growth?as regional gold reserve hub." Gold's annual gain in 2025 will be the highest since 1979. It will also break multiple records due to safe-haven demand and U.S. monetary policies easing. Prices have already increased by 18% or so since the beginning of this year.
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When the US freezes the global LNG market gets a cold. Bousso
A fear of disruptions in production has led to a surge in the price of natural gas. This spike in prices has been felt on overseas markets and highlights the "growing globalization" of the U.S. dominated liquefied gas trade. U.S. Natural Gas Futures are at their highest level since December 2022, up almost 70% in the last week. According to LSEG, the cold snap is expected to boost domestic gas demand to 156 billion cubic feet?per -day (bcfd) this week. This compares to a five year average of 137 bcfd in January. Drillers in areas such as the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico are forced to reduce output because of "freeze-offs," which occur when liquids and water in the gas stream freeze. As temperatures continue to drop, the trend is likely to intensify. LSEG data show that the average gas production in the U.S. is already down to 108.4 bcfd, from a record 109.7 bcfd during December. This was partly due to cold weather. A tighter U.S. gas supply could lead to a reduction in LNG exports as liquefaction facilities receive less feedgas. In recent years, severe cold has affected oil and gas production several times. According to U.S. Energy Information Administration statistics, a 10-day cold period in January 2024 resulted in a 3% decrease in the average monthly dry gas production. Winter Storm Uri, which hit in February of 2021, caused a 20% drop in the gas output compared to pre-storm levels. According to Kpler, LNG feedgas dropped by up to 75% during this storm. This led to a drop of 30% in February LNG exports. During each of the past Arctic blasts in which we have been involved, production has generally recovered within a few months. Since Uri, however, the U.S. liquefaction capability has almost doubled, making it the top LNG exporter in the world. A disruption today would create a larger shortfall. Global?knock-on effect What has changed is that cold weather in the U.S. now can lead to higher gas price in Asia and Europe, who is heavily dependent on U.S. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia cut off pipeline flow. Since 2023, the U.S. dominates the LNG market. In 2025, it will be the first nation to export more than 100 million metric tonnes per year. Kpler, a data analytics company, estimates that two-thirds were delivered to Europe. The benchmark European TTF gas price rose over 6% to nearly 40 euros per megawatt-hour, or $13.75 for each mmBtu. This is the highest level since June 2025. Prices have risen 38% this month due to a rapid depletion in regional gas supplies, which is currently at 48% capacity. This is far below the level of last year, when it was around 58%. The International Energy Agency announced on Friday that Europe will import a record amount LNG this year. The surge in new LNG supply is expected to maintain prices at a relatively low level for the next few years. According to the IEA, between 2025 and 2030 the?new LNG capacity will grow by about 50% or 300 billion cubic metres (bcm), per year, globally. This growth is mainly driven by the U.S. INTERCONNECTED MALL The global impact of sudden changes in demand or supply in major LNG producing areas due to weather or power outages is more severe than ever before. Climate change will likely make extreme weather events more frequent. Mashal Jaffery is a partner with Baringa, a gas and LNG commercial consultancy. He said that the global gas market had become more interconnected. Markets such as the?TTF or (U.S. Henry Hub) are structurally more volatile, and exposed to geopolitical and supply-demand dynamics that originate outside of their region. The global gas market, of course, has adapted. The global gas market has adapted. This allows the market to respond quickly to spikes in demand and smooth out volatility. The gas market, which was once dominated by regional players, is now beginning to resemble the modern, liquid oil markets. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Israeli Airlines relax cancellation policies due to Iran tensions
Israeli airlines El Al, Israir and Arkia announced on Monday that they would allow cancellations of flights due to the uncertainty in the area. Last week, U.S. president Donald Trump announced that an "armada", headed for Iran was on its way. He hoped to avoid using it and warned Tehran to stop killing protesters and restarting their nuclear programme. Airlines are still allowing their customers to cancel new tickets starting Monday or to receive vouchers for future flights. Israel's airspace remained largely closed during a 12-day conflict in June between Israel and Iran due to the incoming Iran missiles, and Israeli air attacks on Iran's nucleus sites. El Al, the flag carrier of Israel, said that it would accept cancellations for any reason up until 48 hours prior to a flight. This applies for flights purchased within the next two weeks or for flights booked before March 17. Israir, a smaller airline, said it would sell flight protection at $35 for flights booked in the next month and flights until the end of 2026. Arkia Airlines, a rival, said that it was "prepared" for any scenario. It would allow passengers to cancel flights free of charge up to 48 hours prior to the flight. Arkia CEO Oz Berlowitz said, "We have gained extensive security-related experience over the past two years." He was referring to conflicts in Lebanon with Hezbollah and Iran as well as the Gaza war. During this time many foreign airlines halted flights from Tel Aviv. "Arkia has prepared itself for any scenario." As of now, we are operating the normal flight schedule, but will add additional flights to destinations as needed. Remember: Israeli aviation will always be here. Israeli Airlines were one of the few airlines flying to Israel since the Gaza War began on October 7,2023 and ended in October 2025 with a ceasefire mediated by the United States.
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Winter storm snarls US travel, forces mass flight cancellations
As freezing rain and heavy snowfall disrupted travel, and slowed down transportation networks in the United States on Monday, airlines were forced to cancel or delay thousands of flights. FlightAware's flight tracking website reported that over 11,000 flights were cancelled on Sunday. As of early Monday morning, more than 3,600 flights had been canceled, and 714 delayed. As the day went on, it was expected that cancellations and delays would increase. The?U.S. National Weather Service said that a low pressure system south of New England will move eastward over the Atlantic Ocean on Monday. This is expected to bring heavy?snow in parts of the Northeast, and freezing rain to sections of the Mid-Atlantic. National Weather Service. The agency also said that snow is expected in the Appalachian region and rain along the 'Southeast coast' as a front moves off shore. American Airlines was the largest disruptor on Monday with nearly 570 cancelled flights and about 57 delays. They were followed by Delta Air Lines, JetBlue Airways, and Republic Airways. The airports of Boston Logan International Airport, Dallas Fort Worth International Airport, and New York John F. Kennedy International Airport have been the most severely affected. Major U.S. Major?U.S. The interconnected nature of airline operations can make it difficult to restore regular flight schedules if aircraft or crews are not in the right place. The storm also caused road traffic to be hampered. The Federal Emergency Management Agency warned that driving conditions may become hazardous as 'blizzard conditions, strong wind and ice spread. Tennessee reported the most cases of power outages. According to PowerOutage.us, more than 820,000 customers had no electricity at the early hours of Monday morning. Reporting and editing by Shinjini Ganuli in Bengaluru.
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EU countries approve the final Russian gas ban
The European Union gave its final approval to ban Russian gas imports until late 2027. This is nearly four years after Moscow invaded Ukraine in full force. At a meeting held in Brussels, Monday, ministers of EU countries voted to approve the law. Slovakia and Hungary did not vote for it and Bulgaria abstained. Hungary announced that it would be challenging the law before?the European Court of Justice. The ban was intended to be approved with a broader majority, which would allow it to overcome the opposition of Hungary and Slovakia who are heavily dependent on Russian energy imports, and wish to maintain close relations with Moscow. According to the agreement, EU will stop importing Russian liquefied gas by 2026. Pipeline gas imports from Russia by September 30th 2027. This deadline can be pushed back to no later than November 1, 2027 if the country has a hard time filling its storage caverns. Before 2022, Russia supplied over 40% of EU gas. According to the most recent data available from the EU, this share fell to 13% by 2025. Some EU countries still pay Moscow for gas pipelines, liquefied gas and oil, despite their attempts to restrict funding and support Russia's wartime economic. LAW BANS NEW GAS DEALS The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a non-profit, reported that the five largest EU importers spent 1.4 billion Euros ($1.66 billion), mainly on LNG and gas, on Russian energy last month. Hungary was the largest buyer, before France and Belgium. The EU imposed sanctions in 2022 on Russian oil shipped by sea, but did not propose sanctions for gas imports. This would have required unanimous approval of all 27 EU member states. The EU law will prohibit companies from signing any new Russian gas contracts and require those with existing contracts to cancel them in order to comply. Imports under short-term contracts signed before June 17, 2020 will be banned by April 25, 2026 for LNG and June 17, 2026 for pipeline gas. The final deadlines for the termination of long-term contracts must be met. Failure to comply with the law could result in financial penalties up to 3% of global annual turnover. In the next few months, the European Commission will also propose legislation to phase out Russian oil pipelines and to wean countries away from Russian nuclear fuel.
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Saudi Aramco provides initial price guidance for 4-tranche bonds
Saudi Aramco offered indicative pricing on four-tranche, dollar-denominated bond, according to a term sheet viewed by. The deal is likely to raise billions for the world's largest oil exporter. The 'indicative' price for the three year debt sale was set at 100 basis points above U.S. Treasuries. For the five-year, it was 115 basis points higher. And the 10-year and 30-year bonds, 125 and 165 basis point over Treasuries. Aramco's last foray into the debt market was in September when it raised $3 billion through a?sale of sukuk or Islamic bonds. This followed a bond issue in May that raised $5 billion. It had been away from the markets for three long years before it returned in July 2024 to raise $6 billion. Aramco - which has long been a cash cow of the Saudi government - announced last August that it would be cutting costs across the company, and divesting assets, as the crude prices dropped and its debt increased. Aramco is expected to pay out around $85.4 billion in dividends by 2025, which represents a drop of roughly 30% from 2024 due to the decline in payouts tied directly to free cash flow. Aramco is directly owned by the government, which owns 81.5%. The sovereign wealth fund PIF also controls 16%. Aramco had announced its cost-cutting measures and divestment plans ahead of the confirmation by its chief financial officer on an earnings call. This included a planned sale?of gas plants. Aramco also has raised money through other means. It signed a $11 billion lease-and-leaseback agreement with Global Infrastructure Partners, part of BlackRock. The Saudi government will raise $12.35 billion in 2024 by selling a 0.64% stake in Aramco. Citi, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are the active bookrunners. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and?Bank of China are passive bookrunners. The bond price is expected to be announced on Monday. (Reporting and writing by Amna Mariyam, Yousef Saba; editing by Alexandra Hudson and William Maclean).
Boeing 737 Production Increase Plans likely to Overshadow Expected Fourth-Quarter Loss
Analysts and investors will focus on Boeing's plans for increasing jetliner production, and its outlook to improve?free-cash flow in the future years when it reports fourth quarter earnings Tuesday. Investors are hoping for a continued recovery after years of crises, even though the company will likely report another quarterly loss. Boeing's stock price is almost back to the level it was two years ago before an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX mid-air panel blew out. Boeing's share price dropped over 30% in 2024 as a result of the accident, which exposed systemic problems with production quality. Boeing's 737 MAX jet, its cash cow, was stabilized and production increased last year. Boeing also sold its subsidiary Jeppesen to Spirit AeroSystems for $10.6 billion. It won the U.S. F47 fighter contract and beat European rival Airbus?on orders for the first year in many years.
CERTIFICATION STRUGGLES CONTINUE The company continues to struggle with certifying the 737 MAX 7, 10 - which are the smallest and largest variants of this popular single-aisle aircraft - as well as the wide-body 777X, which is six years behind schedule.
According to LSEG, Wall Street analysts expect Boeing to report a loss of 39c per share for the fourth quarter. Many top analysts believe that Boeing is a better investment than other companies. 24 out of 29 analysts surveyed in LSEG's survey recommend buying. The outcome of the market depends in part on Boeing's ability to continue producing 737s above the federally-imposed limit of 38 aircraft per month. Federal regulators approved an increase in output to 42 planes per month last October.
Doug Harned, Bernstein aerospace analyst and investment advisor, said that 42 aircraft per month was not a big challenge. When they reach 47 per month, they will need to increase the supply chain.
Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said previously that the company would not increase its?rate any more than six months. Harned stated that it's OK to take nine to twelve months to increase production rates, as long as they are stable and do not have quality or safety issues, as was the case after the pandemic. Boeing has enough jet orders to keep the company busy beyond 2030. Investors want to know when Boeing’s free cash flow will surpass $10 billion, a measure closely monitored by investors. Bernstein predicts that the company will pass this mark in 2028. Cash flow was predicted to be negative by 2025.
BNP Paribas' Matthew Akers, an analyst who specializes in earnings forecasting, wrote that the "math must add up to over $10 billion" by early next year to "satisfy bulls". Akers, a rare Boeing bear, projects Boeing to reach $9 billion in cash flow by 2029. (Reporting and editing by Peter Henderson and Rod Nickel in Seattle, with reporting by Dan Catchpole)
(source: Reuters)