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Goldman Sachs delays BoE rate-cut outlook again on energy-driven inflation risks

Goldman Sachs has delayed its Bank of England rate cut outlook for the second time in this month, citing inflation risks from higher energy prices. They now expect three 25-basis point cuts in July and December this year and one in Febuary 2027.

Goldman Sachs stated that while a rate reduction at the April 30 meeting is possible, if the energy crisis?eases quickly, policymakers will more likely wait until they have clearer data.

According to the brokerage, the shift is due to the inflationary effect of higher energy prices in Europe. This will likely keep the Monetary Policy Committee on the defensive for the near future.

Standard Chartered, Morgan Stanley and others have also pushed their Bank of England easing 'forecasts back, now projecting that the central bank will make its first rate cut during the second quater, due to the spike in energy prices linked to the 'Middle East conflict, which has increased inflation risks.

Goldman Sachs predicts that the bank rate will 'ultimately settle at 3% by early 2027. However, in the event of a negative scenario, the MPC is only likely to deliver one cut for this year, and no cuts if conditions worsen.

(source: Reuters)