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California refinery closings spark race for pipeline to West Coast

Energy companies are racing to build a major pipeline that will carry fuel to the U.S. West Coast. This could be a lucrative endeavor, as the closure of two Californian refineries is expected to drive up gasoline prices on this isolated market. West Coast motorists have been paying some of the highest fuel prices in the nation due to the limited regional production and the lack of connectivity to the Gulf Coast refinery hub. According to the Energy Information Administration, there are no pipelines that deliver fuel from the Gulf Coast to California and few that do so from across the Rocky Mountains. Phillips 66 began to wind down its Los Angeles refinery in September, and Valero Energy plans to shut their Benicia refinery in April. This will cause more price shocks but also present an opportunity for pipeline operators.

Three groups have put forward different ideas to fill the void created by the closures, which is approximately 280,000 barrels per day. Three groups have put forward different proposals to fill the void created by the closures. These include refiner HF Sinclair and ONEOK's pipeline unit, as well as a partnership between Phillips 66, a refiner, and midstream-focused Kinder Morgan.

The first company to make a final decision on investment could be the only one who can secure a multi-billion dollar windfall, because multiple pipelines along the West Coast will eat away at each other's margins. These margins are already restricted due to California being a waterborne importer.

Skip York, Turner, Mason & Co.'s chief energy strategist, said that when multiple pipeline projects are proposed at the same moment, only one is usually completed.

POLITICAL FOCUS OPENS RARE WINDOWS The planned refinery closings have placed intense pressure on California Governor Gavin Newsom, to stop fuel price increases. This has created a rare opportunity for approval of fossil fuel projects in a state which has long been critical of "Big Oil".

Alec Gravelle, an East Daley analyst, said that given the reaction to refinery closings it is hard to imagine any resistance to new projects.

York explained that the majority of financing for pipeline construction comes from capacity commitments. Securing at least 70% could determine which project moves forward.

Scotiabank analyst Paul Cheng says that Western Gateway – the Phillips 66 Kinder Morgan project – and HF Sinclair’s proposal have an advantage because the refiners could ensure some of the supply.

No one has yet made any commitments to capacity. Phillips 66 refused to comment on competing West Coast Pipeline proposals. Other proponents didn't immediately respond to comments. Debnil Chowdhury is the head of Americas & European Refining for S&P Global Commodity Insights. She said that proposals reusing existing line may also be more likely to move forward than new builds, because regulatory approval could be easier.

Western Gateway and HF Sinclair plan parts that use existing lines.

RIVAL REFINERS BET WATERBORNE FUELS While a new pipe could provide some stability for regional gasoline prices in the future, refinery executives have questioned if any will be built. They cited California's ability to access waterborne fuels.

"In terms the pipelines which are rumored will come into the area, that is a big if", said Rick Hessling. He added that the timing and the transportation costs of waterborne barrels were more important than pipelines.

Gary Simmons, Valero Energy's Chief Operating Officer, said in a call with investors last month that the company is unlikely to sign a long-term agreement for shipping services.

Simmons, speaking of price arbitrage opportunities, said: "We prefer the waterborne option as it allows us to get barrels anywhere in the globe and to take advantage of the international arbs which can be available."

(source: Reuters)