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The outlook for US natural gas in the US is largely dependent on three major shale basins. Maguire
Natural gas is used to fuel power plants, homes and factories, as well as the booming LNG sector. The supply of natural gas needed to fuel all these uses comes from a small, ever-shrinking slice of America's shales patch. The mismatch between an increasing number of consumers and a decreasing supply base could lead to a structural crunch in the U.S. gas market, which would trigger periods of price volatility and supply stress. Gas prices that are too high could harm the U.S. economic system and derail efforts to make America the leader in AI applications and data. Gas producers in the United States are therefore under pressure to ensure that they can meet demand and supply. SCRUTINY SHALE According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, shale gas deposits are responsible for 75% of U.S. natural gas supplies. The growth of the biggest shale deposit has been slowed in recent years due to the maturation of the basins. This is because the pressure on the deposits has decreased and the wells are being impacted by the congested spacing. Gas prices that continue to rise would encourage producers to increase their efforts. After more than a decade, the best gas wells are likely to have been tapped. This means that the majority of production efforts will remain concentrated on the key basins which have provided the lion's portion of new U.S. supplies in the last decade, or so, even if the extraction rates continue decline. THE BIG 3. In terms of production, the top three shale formations are the Marcellus in Pennsylvania and Appalachia, the Haynesville in Louisiana and Texas and the Permian. According to the EIA's estimates, these plays will account for 74% or 22.2 trillion cubic foot of U.S. gas production by 2025. In 2016, the combined production of these same deposits reached 8.5 trillion cubic foot, which means that it increased 161% in a decade. This growth rate is compared to an 17% increase in other notable shale deposits and a 48% increase in the total U.S. Gas supplies during that time period. It clearly shows the impact of these seminal deposits on the U.S. Gas sector. As the old saying goes, "what goes up, must come down", and the combined growth of the Big 3 is now falling fast from previous peaks. Since 2022, the average annual increase in gas production has been slowed down to around 6%. The annual growth rate in dry gas production has been around 3% per year, compared to 5% for the period from 2017 through 2021. Different Strokes The Big 3 are often lumped in together when discussing shale. However, there are important differences between them in terms of their deposit characteristics and growth limitations. Marcellus Shale, a massive deposit in Pennsylvania, produced nearly one-third of the shale gas supplied to the United States last year. It has also consistently provided the lowest cost gas for the past decade. Marcellus's relatively shallow shale depths and thick, consistent formations are ideal for modern gas extraction, while its proximity with large East Coast populations centers makes it profitable to distribute its gas. Even after a decade-long continuous depletion of reserves, exploration firm Kingdom Exploration estimates that between 50 and 70% of technically recoverable natural gas is still left. The Marcellus region is still facing major challenges to its growth. These include limited pipeline connections with new markets, the difficult permitting process for new pipelines and the distances between major LNG export hubs. Haynesville, the deposit that produced 16% of U.S. Shale Gas last year, has much closer ties to LNG exporters who are Haynesville's main customers. Haynesville producers, however, are very sensitive to market price fluctuations and will reduce their activity if prices continue to fall. Haynesville's reserves are also estimated to be huge, but they will cost more to extract, as the easy pockets are emptied. Permian Basin is different from Marcellus and Haynesville because it's primarily an oil reserve with a side of natural gas. Permian oil is the most important product. In 2025, the basin will produce around 6.5 millions barrels of crude oil per day or about half the total U.S. crude production. Gas is often marketed as a byproduct by producers in order to get buyers to buy it. Permian Gas is among the most affordable available. However, limited pipeline connectivity can cause supplies to accumulate in the basin. This will further lower prices. The tightening of rules on flaring, the burning off?of excess gas, means that Permian producers will need to be more disciplined with their offtake and storage flow going forward. The high crude oil prices will also result in additional oil and gas production in the Permian basin by 2026. This could have a greater and more consistent impact on the national?gas market. The interplay between the Big 3 basins is what will determine the direction of the gas market in the future. Increasing the collective production of gas from these basins will increase overall U.S. supplies, ensuring continued growth for power and LNG exports. The idea of U.S. dominance in energy may have to be rethought if gas production from the Big 3 continues to fall. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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Police say that the'system failure" is responsible for the outage of Baidu robotaxi in Wuhan.
Local police reported that a "system failure" was responsible for a robotaxi service outage in central China's Wuhan. This re-ignited safety concerns over the rapidly-growing service. According to an official announcement, the police received reports late on Tuesday that numerous Apollo Go cars were stuck in the middle roads of Wuhan. The police reported that passengers were able exit their vehicles safely, and no injuries were reported. Investigations are still ongoing to determine the cause of this incident. A traffic police officer told The Paper, a Shanghai-based media outlet, that at least '100 Apollo Go cars were affected. Although the officer said that car doors were easily opened, he added that some passengers were reluctant to leave their cars because of heavy traffic and called for help. Local media reported that passengers trapped in vehicles for almost two hours. Baidu didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. The accident has prompted renewed discussion on Chinese social media regarding robotaxi safety and readiness. In August, an Apollo Go robotaxi with a passenger in it fell into a Chongqing construction pit.?In May, one of the vehicles operated by Pony.ai caught fire on a Beijing road. In either case, no injuries were reported. Waymo robotaxis stalled and caused traffic jams in San Francisco at the end last year due to a widespread power outage. Baidu, Pony.ai and WeRide are China's two largest?autonomous-driving fleet operators. These companies have launched commercial robotaxi services in major Chinese cities, and expanded their operations to overseas markets including the Middle East. (Reporting and editing by Qiaoyi Li, Ryan Woo)
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CCTV reports that Li Xiong, a Chen Zhi associate, was extradited to China from Cambodia.
Chinese broadcaster CCTV, citing officials, reported that an alleged key?member of Chinese businessman Chen Zhi’s online scam & money laundering operation -?Li Xiong - was extradited from Cambodia to China. Chen founded the Prince Group - a Cambodian conglomerate that has fingers in real estate, banking, airlines, and cryptocurrency investment schemes. According to U.S. prosecutors these schemes have allegedly stolen billions of dollars worldwide from their victims. In a press release, the Cambodian government confirmed that he had been extradited to China. CCTV reported that Li was the former chairman of the Huione Group. Huione Group?allegedly laundered?at least $4 billion in illicit proceeds between August 20,21 and January 20,25, according the U.S. Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Agency. FinCEN determined that Huione Group, out of the $4 billion total, laundered virtual currencies worth at least $37 millions? that were stolen from North Korean cyber-heists and at least $36 from investment scams involving virtual currencies, as well as $300 million in virtual currencies from other cyber scams. Cambodian Government spokesperson?Touch Sokhak said that China sent experts to Cambodia in order to assist with the investigation which led to the arrest. He said: "This shows Cambodia’s willingness to eliminate online?scams, and that Cambodia is not a safe haven for scam criminals."
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UKMTO: Tanker struck by two projectiles in Qatar, including one that was unexploded
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said a tanker'struck off Qatar' was hit by two projectiles. One exploded and the other remained unexploded inside the engine room. The tanker was hit about 17 nautical miles (31km) north of Qatar’s industrial hub?Ras Laffan, causing damage to the vessel above the waterline. The crew were safe and there were no reported environmental impacts. UKMTO stated that it could not confirm the origin of the projectiles, and investigations were still ongoing. The incident occurs as a result of 'growing threats to maritime travel in the wake of the U.S. - Israel conflict with 'Iran. Kuwait announced?on Tuesday that one of their fully loaded oil tanks?was attacked off Dubai and?triggered a fire. In recent days, maritime authorities reported "multiple incidents" involving vessels in Gulf waters.
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IndiGo shares rise after Willie Walsh, a veteran airline executive, is named CEO
IndiGo shares gained 4.4% Wednesday, after the Indian budget airline named Willie Walsh as its new chief executive officer. This comes just weeks after Pieter Elbers' departure. Jefferies described this appointment as "remarkably quick" for an airline with the scale and complexity of IndiGo, and that it would likely minimize any leadership vacuums and ensure continuity in implementation. Jefferies stated that Walsh will be able to guide IndiGo through its current growth phase as well as operational stabilisation, international expansion and the company's future expansion. Walsh's tenure as the?head the International Air Transport Association ends on July 31. He is expected to join IndiGo no later than August 3, according to a?statement from the airline. IndiGo?commands approximately 65% of India’s rapidly growing aviation market. The carrier's biggest crisis occurred in December when it cancelled more than 4,500 flight after not preparing for the new rules on pilot rest. Elbers was among the senior executives reprimanded by regulators for "inadequate oversight of flight operations" and "crisis management". IndiGo, like its competitors, has been affected by higher costs due to flight reroutings caused by the conflict in the Middle East and Pakistani restrictions on airspace. Jefferies noted that the airline's key priorities?now are improving reliability, addressing issues with crew, and balancing its low-cost model amidst ongoing cost pressures. IndiGo shares have fallen 19% this year so far, making it one of the worst performers on the Nifty50. The airline's current value is 1.59 trillion rupees (16.97 billion dollars). $1 = 93.6810 Indian Rupees (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema in Bengaluru)
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Defence Ministry: 29 killed in crash of Russian military transport aircraft in Crimea
According to news reports, a Russian An-26 military aircraft crashed into a cliff on the Crimean peninsula, killing 29 people on board. The crash was caused by a possible malfunction of a plane's technical system, said Russia's Defence Ministry. The TASS News Agency, quoting the Ministry, stated that communication was lost with the aircraft at around 6 p.m. local (1500 GMT) Tuesday during a flight planned over Crimea. The peninsula is covered with sweeping mountains that lead down to the Black Sea coast. It was annexed from Ukraine by Russia in 2014. TASS reported: "The Defence Ministry announced that a team of searchers had located the site of this catastrophe." According to a report on the scene, six crew and 23 passengers were killed. The report from the ministry did not mention how many passengers were on board. However, it did not mention any survivors. The ministry said that there was no impact to the aircraft, implying objects such as missiles, birds, and drones were not involved. The preliminary cause of the accident is a malfunctioning technical system. It said that a military commission was working on the site. The Russian defence ministry didn't respond to a comment request outside of normal business hours. The An-26 is in service since the late 1960s. It has also been used to carry freight by airlines. In 2022, a Ukrainian An-26 crashed in the Zaporizhzhia Region in Ukraine's southeast during a?technical flight. One person was killed. In 2020, a Ukrainian An-26 crashed during a training flight over the northeastern Ukraine region. All but one person on board died. In 2020, eight people, including five Russians, died when an An-26 crashed into South Sudan. In 2017, four of the 10 people aboard were killed in a crash landing by an An-26 in Ivory Coast, West Africa. Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed
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US oil is headed to Greece for the first time in 4 years as refiners look for alternatives to Middle East crude
Ship tracking data on Kpler showed that a cargo of WTI Midland Crude?was headed to Greece for the?first time in about four years. The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, and the reduced traffic through Strait of Hormuz, have disrupted trade and closed down production in the area. Ship tracking data and the maritime platform Signal Ocean revealed that the Isle of Man flagged medium-sized Eagle Helsinki had loaded 700,000 barrels of WTI Midland - the flagship U.S. sweet light crude - at Seabrook Logistics Terminal?in Houston. The tanker was then anchored in Agio Theodoroi (Greece), close to Motor Oil's refinery located in Corinth. The 'Corinth' refinery is Greece’s second-largest and represents more than a third of the country's total refining capacity. Eagle Helsinki initially indicated its destination as Rotterdam before changing its mid-Atlantic course to head towards Gibraltar, then Greece, according ship tracking and Signal Ocean. Signal Ocean reported that the refinery relies on Iraqi crude oil from Basrah to a large extent. The company declined to make any comment. Ship tracking data revealed that a cargo of Ecuadorian heavy crude with high sulfur was also headed to Irving Oil’s refinery in Canada’s east coast via the Panama Canal in March. This is the first shipment in more than a year. The Zaruma, a mid-size vessel flying the Panama flag,?transported about 700,000. barrels of Ecuadorian Oriente crude.to the refinery. Canada received its last cargo of oil in Ecuador last February. Irving oil didn't immediately respond to a?request for a comment. Reporting by Arathy S. Somasekhar, in Houston. Angeliki Koutantou, in Athens. Jonthan Saul, in London. Amanda Stephenson and David Gregorio in Calgary.
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US Customs Agency says that the tariff refund system is progressing but payments could take up to 45 Days
U.S. Customs Agency said Tuesday that it is making progress in setting up a simplified process to refund some $166 billion?in tariff collection deemed illegal by Supreme Court. However, its new system could take as long as?45 days for review and processing?refund requests. Brandon Lord, a U.S. Customs and Border Protection representative, said in a filing to the U.S. Court of International Trade that development of a refund claims portal, review and processing system, and refund system are now between 60-85% complete. Lord did not specify a date when applications would be accepted, but the agency had previously indicated a goal of 45 days, which ends in April. Lord stated in the declaration filed on Tuesday that 'the new system would begin accepting claims gradually, giving priority to entries that have been liquidated or 'finalized' within the previous 80 days, and entries with liquidation status "suspended" or "under review". Lord stated that the initial phase would also accept declarations containing entries for warehouses and warehouse withdrawals. Lord said that the initial phase will also 'accept declarations containing warehouse and warehouse withdrawal entries. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down last month President Donald Trump's most expansive global tariffs, under IEEPA. This was a major blow to his central economic policy. Documents from the court show that more than 330,000 importers 'paid the IEEPA duties on 53 million shipments. The Supreme Court gave no guidance regarding the refund of tariff payments collected by importers between February 2025 and now. That matter was left to the Court for International Trade in New York City. FedEx and other large importers sued CBP in order to secure their refund rights, which Trump claimed could take up to five years. Many smaller importers were afraid that the costs of the refund process would be too high to justify the benefits. The Court of International Trade's Judge Richard Eaton ordered CBP earlier this month to process?refunds with its existing system. However, the agency proposed a different method that would allow refund requests to be accepted as early as next month without requiring importers to file a lawsuit. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao; Additional reporting in Wilmington, Delaware by Tom Hals; Reporting by David Lawder)
Germany's Deutsche Bahn gets more investment but must win back public trust
The German Bahn has seen more bookings that 'expected' as Easter approaches, and the fuel price increases are attracting people to train travel. However, it still faces a steep uphill battle in reviving 'its ageing network' and restoring the public trust after a long decline. Inga Nielsen says she has had bad experiences for years. In 2021, the six-hour trip from Amsterdam to Berlin was turned into a long odyssey involving regional trains and buses. Her train broke down two weeks ago and was delayed for two hours. She said that the main reason for using Deutsche Bahn was to avoid flying, which is getting more expensive. However, she also added that it is stressful. Analysts link the decline in Deutsche Bahn with the woes facing the German economy. The German economy has been struggling to regain momentum since the COVID-19 epidemic, due to rising competition from China and high energy prices, as well as a lack of investment. The government has now spent heavily to revive them both.
Tim Engartner is a professor at Cologne University and the author of numerous studies about Deutsche Bahn. "Things?are not running smoothly."
PASSENGERS WANT TO RELY ON A RAILWAY Last Friday, Deutsche Bahn CEO Evelyn Palla stated at a news conference presenting the financial results for 2025, a loss of 2.3bn euros ($2.66bn), that customers expected a railway on which they could rely.
"In the past few years, we've disappointed this trust too many times -- with inadequate quality, through losses, and a lack transparency," she said.
She said it would still take ten years and an additional 150 billion euros (162 billion dollars) to finish the planned overhaul of rail networks. To speed up the turnaround, the German government is increasing investment in the state owned operator. The Easter holiday will be a test, as Deutsche Bahn has said that long-distance bookings have been in double-digit percentages above expectations due to the Iran War pushing up fuel prices.
40 PERCENT LONG DISTANCE TRAIN DELAYS
Deutsche Bahn reported that 60% of their long-distance train services were on time by 2025. This means 40% weren't. The train is late if the arrival time is six minutes or greater.
A crisis in operations has been matched with a churning at the top. The state-owned railway has been struggling to turn things around.
Experts claim that despite the increasing rail usage, Deutsche Bahn's troubles are due to decades of underinvestment. They also point out that it is a joint stock company aiming both to make a profit and provide a public service.
According to Allianz pro Schiene, Germany has doubled its per capita government investment in rail infrastructure from last year to 198 Euros in 2024. However, it still lags behind Austria, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
The structural problem is the lack of state funding for the railway as a public service, said Vera Huwe at Dezernat Zukunft. Gross investment reached a record of 22 billion euro in 2025, and 23 billion euro is planned in 2026. Palla calls this "a super-construction year". The 500 billion euro German infrastructure fund will help. Deutsche Bahn is set to receive 81 Billion Euros between 2025-2029. Katja Diehl, mobility expert and spokesman for the German government, said: "They call this an investment push but it is more about stabilizing the system."
(source: Reuters)